Business Monitor International


Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 07 July 2014

  • 122 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:

The new Serbian government is actively trying to stabilise the country's fiscal position through cutting spending, encouraging outside investment and demand pickup for Serbian exports in order to reduce its debt burden. However, pharmaceutical spending is also a target for cut s . Local drug makers are set to feel the worst of these new measures as they cannot compete on cost compared to larger players in the market. The Serbian government has amended the Medicines Act with the specific aim of considerably lowering drug prices, and therefore reducing the liabilities of the National Health Insurance Fund (RFZO). Serbia's pharmaceutical spending growth will remain depressed for the next two to three years. Overall, Serbia's pharmaceutical market's high price-sensitivity will constrain the market's short-term potential, although we are optimistic towards the market's long-term growth prospects.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: RSD90.46bn (USD1.05bn) in 2013 to RSD97.00bn (USD1.06bn) in 2014; +7.2% in local currency terms and +1.2% in US dollar terms.

Healthcare: RSD389.82bn (USD4.53bn) in 2013 to RSD412.61bn (USD4.53bn) in 2014; +5.8% in local currency terms and -0.1% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating (RRR)

Serbia's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q3 2014 is again lower with 48.8 out of 100, although its position in our rankings remained unchanged, making it the 13th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Emerging Europe region. The country's overall score remains below the regional average of 51.6.

Key Trends & Developments

In May 2014, drug prices in Serbia increased faster than the general price level of goods and services during Q114, according to a report by the Department of Commerce. Drug prices increased 2.3%, compared with a general price rise of 1.2%. Prices of medicines sold without a prescription rose 1%, while prices of drugs dispensed by a prescription increased about 2.9%. In March the government...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
15
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
18
Healthcare Market Forecast
19
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
21
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
21
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
23
Patented Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
25
Generic Drug Market Forecast
26
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
28
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
29
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
30
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2018)
33
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Serbia 2012-2018)
33
Other Healthcare Data
34
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
35
Macroeconomic Forecasts
36
Economic Outlook
36
Table: Serbia - Economic Activity
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Serbia Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Rewards
49
Risks
49
Market Overview
51
Industry Trends And Developments
52
Epidemiology
52
Healthcare Sector
55
Table: Major General And Specialised Hospitals
58
Healthcare Insurance
60
Healthcare Debts
61
Clinical Trials
62
Regulatory Development
64
Table: Number Of Products On The Drugs List
64
Registration Renewals
66
Healthcare Sector Corruption
67
Intellectual Property Environment
69
Promotion
71
Pricing Regime
73
Price Developments
75
Reimbursement Regime
76
Table: Leading Suppliers Of Medicines To RZZO, By Value (RSDmn)
80
Table: Cost Of Prescriptions Covered By RZZO By Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) Classification (RSD '000)
80
Competitive Landscape
82
Investment Climate
82
Pharmaceutical Industry
82
Table: Companies Involved In The Serbian Pharmaceutical Industry
83
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry
84
Domestic Company Activity
85
Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry
86
Table: Proposed Members Of Serbia's Pharmaceutical Industry Association
86
Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail
87
Company Profile
90
Hemofarm (Stada)
90
Galenika
95
Zdravlje Actavis
101
Jugoremedija
105
Pfizer
108
GlaxoSmithKline
110
Novartis
112
Sanofi
114
Merck & Co
116
Krka
118
Demographic Forecast
122
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
123
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
124
Table: Serbia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
125
Table: Serbia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
125
Glossary
126
Methodology
128
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
128
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
128
Notes On Methodology
129
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
130
Ratings Overview
131
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
131
Indicator Weightings
132

The Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc