Business Monitor International


Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 02 October 2014

  • 122 pages
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$1,295.00
Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:   In July, Serbia's National Health Insurance Fund   (RFZO) cut medicine prices by around 50% through a new policy, pravda.rs reported , citing Momcilo Babic, RFZO's d irector. Although criticised by the media for its new policy of lowering medicine prices,   Babic believes it means that the organisation is not working for pharmaceutical companies but for the benefit of the Serbian people. The implementation of the government's new regulation on medicine prices in the country will lead to considerable savings. This illustrates that the new Serbian government is actively trying to stabilise the country's fiscal position through cutting spending. Local drug makers, however, are set to feel the worst of these new measures as they cannot compete on cost compared to larger players in the market. Thus, Serbia's pharmaceutical spending growth will remain depressed for the next two to three years. Overall, Serbia's pharmaceutical market's high price-sensitivity will constrain the market's short-term potential, although we are optimistic towards the market's long-term growth prospects.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: RSD90.46bn (USD1.06bn) in 2013 to RSD96.85bn (USD1.13bn) in 2014; +7.1% in local currency terms and +6.0% in US dollar terms.

Healthcare: RSD376.28bn (USD4.42bn) in 2013 to RSD397.17bn (USD4.62bn) in 2014; +5.6% in local currency terms and 4.5% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating (RRR)

Serbia's Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) score for Q4 2014 remained at 48.8 out of 100, making it the 13th most attractive pharmaceutical market in the Central and Eastern Europe region. The country's overall score remains below the regional average of 51.4.

Key Trends & Developments

In August 2014, the Agency for Medicines and Medical Devices of Serbia (ALIMS) and Russia's Federal Service for the Supervision of Healthcare were expected to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for cooperation in the pharmaceutical sector,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
11
Political
13
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
16
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
16
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
19
Healthcare Market Forecast
20
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
21
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
22
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
22
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
23
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
24
Patented Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
26
Generic Drug Market Forecast
27
Table: Generic Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
29
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
30
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2010-2018)
31
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
32
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Serbia 2012-2018)
33
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts Local Currency (Serbia 2012-2018)
34
Other Healthcare Data
35
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
36
Macroeconomic Forecasts
37
Table: Economic Activity (Serbia 2009-2018)
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Serbia Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Rewards
49
Risks
49
Market Overview
51
Industry Trends And Developments
52
Epidemiology
52
Healthcare Sector
54
Table: Major General And Specialised Hospitals
58
Healthcare Insurance
59
Healthcare Debts
61
Clinical Trials
62
Regulatory Development
64
Table: Number Of Products On The Drugs List
64
Registration Renewals
66
Healthcare Sector Corruption
67
Intellectual Property Environment
69
Promotion
71
Pricing Regime
73
Price Developments
75
Reimbursement Regime
76
Table: Leading Suppliers Of Medicines To RZZO, By Value (RSDmn)
80
Table: Cost Of Prescriptions Covered By RZZO By Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) Classification (RSD '000)
80
Competitive Landscape
82
Investment Climate
82
Pharmaceutical Industry
82
Table: Companies Involved In The Serbian Pharmaceutical Industry
83
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry
84
Domestic Company Activity
85
Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry
86
Table: Proposed Members Of Serbia's Pharmaceutical Industry Association
86
Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail
87
Company Profile
90
Hemofarm (Stada)
90
Galenika
95
Zdravlje Actavis
100
Jugoremedija
104
Pfizer
107
GlaxoSmithKline
109
Novartis
111
Sanofi
113
Merck & Co
115
Krka
117
Demographic Forecast
121
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
122
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
123
Table: Serbia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
124
Table: Serbia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
124
Glossary
125
Methodology
127
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
127
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
127
Notes On Methodology
128
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
129
Ratings Overview
130
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
130
Indicator Weightings
131

The Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Serbia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Serbian pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

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