Business Monitor International


Serbia Freight Transport Report

Published 11 November 2013

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Serbia Freight Transport Report

Following a year in which BMI believes saw mixed trends in different freight modes, 2014 will signal slow to moderate growth across all freight modes.

Total trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 6.15% in 2014 following an estimated growth of 7.15% in 2013.

Road freight is to grow at a highest pace, with 7% increase predicted, although rail freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 1% in 2014. The sector did not manage to defy the downturn but quickly recovered its pre-2009 freight volumes, only to lose a quarter of them in 2012. However, it will be boosted by a large number of railway infrastructure upgrades.

The country finally found strategic partner for the national airline and rebranded Jat Airways as Air Serbia.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 2.2%

  • 2014 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.4%

  • 2014 Road freight is forecast to grow by 7.4%

  • 2014 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 1.5%

  • 2014 Total real trade growth is forecast at 6.2%.

Key Industry Trends

Russia to Modernise Serbia's Rail Infrastructure : Russian Railways (RZD) via its subsidiary Russian Railways International will build new and reconstruct existing railway infrastructure in Serbia and will also supply diesel trains for Serbian Railways. The respective contract was signed by Russian Railways International and Serbian Railways top executives in Serbia's capital Belgrade in May 2013. All infrastructure works are expected to be completed within five years.

Jat Links-Up with Etihad, Gets Rebranded : The new Serbian national carrier was officially launched on October 25 2013. Air Serbia is the product of rebranding Jat Airways after 49% of the latter was sold to Etihad Airways. Apart from new name and link-up with Etihad, Serbia's carrier also boasts new aircraft, new routes and will receive further investment.

New Serbia-Hungary Road Border...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
SWOT Analysis
7
Serbia IT Sector SWOT
7
Serbia Telecoms Industry SWOT
8
Serbia Political SWOT
9
Serbia Economic SWOT
9
Serbia Business Environment SWOT
10
Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
11
Table: Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113
13
Europe IT Markets Overview
14
IT Penetration
14
Market Growth And Drivers
16
Sectors And Verticals
18
Market Overview
22
Government Authority
22
Background
22
Hardware
23
Software
26
Services
28
Industry Developments
30
Industry Forecast
33
Table: Serbia IT Industry - Historical Data And Forecasts (US$mn unless otherwise stated), 2009-2017
36
Industry Forecast Internet
37
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
37
Competitive Landscape
39
Hardware
39
Software
40
IT Services
41
Macroeconomic Forecast
43
Company Profiles
46
Microsoft Corporation
46
ComTrade
51
IBM
52
Hewlett-Packard
57
Country Snapshot
63
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
64
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
65
Table: Serbia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
66
Table: Serbia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
66
BMI Methodology
67
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
67
IT Industry
67
IT Ratings - Methodology
68
Table: IT Business Environment Indicators
69
Weighting
70
Table: Weighting Of Components
70
Sources
70

The Serbia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Serbia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Serbian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Serbian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Serbia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc