Business Monitor International


Serbia Food & Drink Report

Published 29 September 2014

  • 128 pages
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$1,295.00
Serbia Food & Drink Report

BMI View:   High levels of unemployment (forecast at 23.5% for 2014) and government plans to cut public sector jobs and wages will likely begin to impact households from H214 onwards. This will weigh on overall consumer sentiment, given that the public sector workforce comprises one fifth of the total workforce. In line with the poor consumer outlook, we forecast 2014 total food consumption in Serbia to expand by 1.6% in local currency terms.

Headline Industry Data (local currency):

  • Total food consumption growth year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2014: +1.6%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2018: +2.3%

  • Alcoholic drinks sales growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +1.6%; (CAGR) to 2018: +2.4%

  • Soft drinks sales growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +5.8%; CAGR to 2018: +10.3%

  • Total mass grocery sales (local currency) growth (y-o-y) in 2014: +4.3%; CAGR to 2018: +6.3%

Key Industry Trends And Developments

Du Pont subsidiary Pioneer Hi-Bred announced in July 2014 that it has set up a seed production research facility in Stara Pazova, which it will operate in partnership with Delta Agrar. Pioneer Hi-Bred has been established in Serbia since 1996 and has worked closely with Delta Agrar since 2001. The partnership has produced over 70,000 tons of seed corn, of which more than 40% was for the export market. The partnership is estimated to have a 28% market share in the Serbian corn hybrids market and an 11% share of the country's sunflower hybrids market.

Construction started in April 2014 of a new production and storage facility in northern Serbia, for the German food producer Dr. Oetker. The facility, which is expected to be completed by October 2015, will have a production capacity of 6,000 tonnes and represents a EUR9.5mn (USD12.5mn) by the company. The new site is located in the village of Simanovci and will also be the new headquarters for Dr. Oetker's Serbian operations. The new plant will significantly increase the company's national production capability and will present new...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Food
9
Drink
11
Mass Grocery Retail
13
Industry Forecast
15
Consumer Outlook
15
Food
16
Food Consumption
16
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
17
Confectionery
17
Table: Confectionery Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
18
Canned Food
18
Table: Canned Foods Volume/Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
20
Snack Foods
20
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
20
Meat
22
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
23
Dairy
24
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
24
Drink
26
Alcoholic Drinks
26
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
27
Soft Drinks
27
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
28
Hot Drinks
29
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
31
Mass Grocery Retail
31
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
32
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales Breakdown By Retail Format (% of total)
33
Trade
34
Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q213
36
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Food and Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Sub-components Q213 (out of 10)
39
Serbia Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Macroeconomic Forecast
41
Table: Serbia - Economic Activity
45
Market Overview
46
Food
46
Food Consumption
46
Food Production
46
Leading Players
46
Confectionery
47
Canned Food
48
Trade
48
Agriculture
49
Dairy Production
50
Sugar Production
50
Organic Agriculture
51
Drink
51
Beer
51
Spirits
53
Wine
53
Soft Drinks
54
Hot Drinks
55
Mass Grocery Retail
56
Industry Trends And Developments
59
Food
59
Drink
63
Mass Grocery Retail
65
Competitive Landscape
69
Table: Key Players In Serbia's Food & Drink Sector
69
Table: Key Players In Serbia's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
70
Company Profile
72
Bambi
72
Mondi Serbia
74
Mladost-Sid
75
Sunoko
76
Coca-Cola/IBP Beograd
78
Beogradska Industrija Piva
80
Carlsberg Serbia
82
Apatinska Pivara
84
Arteska International
86
BB Minaqua
88
Knjaz Milo-
90
Mercator
92
Veropoulos
95
Delhaize/Delta Holding
97
Metro
100
Global Industry Overview
102
Table: Core Views
108
Demographic Forecast
109
Demographic Outlook
109
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
110
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
110
Table: Serbia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
111
Table: Serbia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
112
Glossary
113
Food & Drink
113
Mass Grocery Retail
113
Methodology
115
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
115
Table: Rewards
116
Table: Risks
116
Table: Weighting
117

The Serbia Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Serbia Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Serbia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Serbia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Serbian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Serbia through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc