Business Monitor International


Saudi Arabia Power Report

Published 17 October 2014

  • 70 pages
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$1,295.00
Saudi Arabia Power Report

BMI View:   We have maintained our outlook for Saudi Arabia this quarter and we expect the kingdom's power sector to register signi ficant growth over our 10 -year forecast period to 2023 . Our positive   view of the market   is not only underpinned by the sheers scale of Saudi Arabia's power generation expansion plans , but also by robust macroeconomic fundamentals   and the surging demand for electricity from its growing population and heavy industries . Further, with Saudi Arabia holding one- fifth of global oil reserves, it is also endeavouring to alter its oil-heavy power generation mix to preserve its outsized role in global oil markets . This aim is perhaps the biggest driver of Saudi energy policy and underpins efforts to dive rsify the energy mix to utilise greater volumes of gas, as well as nuclear, renewables and the implementation of energy efficiency measures .

Saudi Arabia's power market faces a need to satisfy a rapidly growing domestic electricity demand, a reliance on energy-intensive extractive industries and the urge to transition to a less hydrocarbon-heavy energy mix to save oil for exports. These factors have spurred the country to devise an ambitious energy strategy for the next two decades, according to which the kingdom will have more than 120MW of installed capacity by 2032, with renewable and nuclear power accounting for 55MW and 17.6MW respectively. Moreover, the country aims at making energy efficiency savings that are equivalent to bringing 37GW of capacity online. As such, we forecast that electricity consumption will grow at an average 4.82% y-o-y between 2014 and 2023, reaching 401.12TWh by the end of our 10-year forecast to 2023. This will be matched by growth in power generation at annual average of 4.67% between 2014 and 2023, when we forecast the kingdom will generate 437.12TWh.

We expect efforts to secure oil for exports to continue to determine the future composition of the domestic energy...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
13
Saudi Arabia Snapshot
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Saudi Arabia 2013-2018)
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
13
Saudi Arabia Power Forecast Scenario
14
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
17
Electricity Consumption
35
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
35
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
35
Transmission & Distribution
37
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
37
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
37
Table: 2011 Key T&D Projects
38
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
40
MEA Power Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Table: MENA - Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
47
Table: Sub Saharan Africa - Power Risk Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
47
Saudi Arabia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Rewards
49
Risks
50
Market Overview
52
Key Policies And Market Structure
52
Regulation and Competition
52
Table: IPP - Investment Opportunities
53
Sustainable Energy Policies
54
Saudi Arabia Power Projects Database
54
Table: Major Projects - Power
54
Competitive Landscape
62
Saudi Electricity Company (SEC)
62
Regional Overview
64
Middle East And Africa - Regional Overview
64
Glossary
73
Table: Glossary Of Terms
73
Methodology
74
Methodology And Sources
74
Industry Forecast Methodology
74
Sources
77
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
77
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
78
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
80

The Saudi Arabia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Saudi Arabia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Saudi Arabia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Saudi Arabia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc