Business Monitor International


Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report

Published 20 March 2014

  • 126 pages
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$1,295.00
Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : We expect Saudi crude production to remain elevated by historical standards in 2014 and 2015. This view is based on continued OPEC outages, a mediocre global supply picture (Libya, Nigeria, Kashagan, Iraq), a continued increase of domestic consumption from the power generation and transport sectors, strong demand from the refining sector and a recovering global demand picture. Risks to this outlook lie mostly to the downside. Given Saudi's role as a swing producer, stronger supply growth than expected from OPEC and/or non-OPEC producers, would see Saudi lower its outputs to help protect prices. The outlook for gas remains tight, despite ambitious plans to tap unconventional resources; we believe that rising consumption and faltering supplies may yet see the Kingdom seriously consider imports.

  • We forecast Saudi oil reserves rising to as much as 273bn barrels (bbl) by 2017, but falling to 265bn bbl by the end of our forecast period in 2023. In early 2014, Aramco officials revealed plans to add 160bn bbl in additional reserves in the coming years. Saudi authorities detailed plans to image 4,600 metres into reservoirs with a seismic resolution of 1.5 and to drill 50% faster at lower costs than contemporary drilling processes.

  • Saudi Arabia has maintained high oil production and exports by historical standards in the first half of 2014. This is attributable to large unplanned outages and a healthier-than-expected demand. Our core view is that crude oil and lease condensates production will remain at current levels throughout 2014. This will see production of about 9.78mn b/d for 2014, a 1% increase from 2013 production of 9.68mn b/d, but lower than the record production year of 2012.

  • Our view for 2015 oil production is for a very slight decline or a stagnation of output from 2014 levels, at about 9.8mn b/d. This is based on the same trends and assumptions seen in 2014: continued OPEC outages, a continued increase of domestic consumption from the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Saudi Arabia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
10
Table: Saudi Arabia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data - Long-term Forecasts, 2017-2022
11
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Saudi Arabia Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
15
Table: Saudi Arabia Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-term Forecasts, 2017-2022
15
Gas Supply And Demand
20
Table: Saudi Arabia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
20
Table: Saudi Arabia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Lon-term Forecasts, 2017-2022
21
Unconventional Upside
23
Refining And Oil Products Trade
26
Table: Saudi Arabia Refining Production And Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
26
Table: Saudi Arabia Refining Production And Consumption - Long-term Forecasts, 2017-2022
26
Revenues/Import Costs
28
Risks To Outlook
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
29
Saudi Arabia - Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Middle East Risk/Reward Ratings
29
Resilient Risks Rankings Despite Change In Critical Region
29
Table: Middle East Oil & Gas Risk Reward Ratings
30
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk Reward Rating
31
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk Reward Rating
32
Market Overview
33
Saudi Arabia Energy Market Overview
33
Overview/State Role
35
Licensing And Regulation
35
Government Policy
36
International Energy Relations
36
Table: Saudi Arabia - Upstream Project Database
39
Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Infrastructure
40
Oil Refineries
40
Table: Refineries In Saudi Arabia
40
Competitive Landscape
48
Table: Key Players In Saudi Arabia's Oil & Gas Sector
49
Company Profile
50
Saudi Aramco
50
Shell Saudi Arabia
54
ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia
56
Chevron
58
Other Companies - Summary
61
Regional Overview
64
Iraq: Abundance of Risk, Abundance Of Potential
64
Proven Producers Invest To Lift Output
65
Gas Rises, But Consumption Does Too
67
Uncertainty In Tehran
69
Global Industry Overview
70
Global Energy Market Overview
70
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
71
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts
77
Appendix
79
Regional Appendix
79
Table: Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
79
Table: Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
79
Table: Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
80
Table: Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Table : Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
81
Table: Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
82
Table: Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
82
Table: Table: Gas Consumption, 2014-2021 (bcm)
83
Table: Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
83
Table: Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
84
Table: Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
85
Table: Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
85
Glossary
86
Table: Glossary Of Terms
86
Methodology
88
Energy Industry
89
Cross checks
89
Sources
90

The Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Saudi Arabia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Saudi Arabia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Saudi oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc