Business Monitor International


Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report

Published 15 July 2014

  • 126 pages
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$1,295.00
Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View : We expect Saudi crude production to remain elevated by historical standards in 2014 and 2015. This view is based on continued OPEC outages, a mediocre global supply picture (Libya, Nigeria, Kashagan, Iraq), a continued increase of domestic consumption from the power generation and transport sectors, strong demand from the refining sector and a recovering global demand picture. Risks to this outlook lie mostly to the downside. Given Saudi's role as a swing producer, stronger supply growth than expected from OPEC and/or non-OPEC producers, would see Saudi lower its outputs to help protect prices. The outlook for gas remains tight, despite ambitious plans to tap unconventional resources; we believe that rising consumption and faltering supplies may yet see the Kingdom seriously consider imports.

  • We forecast Saudi oil reserves rising to as much as 273bn barrels (bbl) by 2017, but falling to 265bn bbl by the end of our forecast period in 2023. In early 2014, Aramco officials revealed plans to add 160bn bbl in additional reserves in the coming years. Saudi authorities detailed plans to image 4,600 metres into reservoirs with a seismic resolution of 1.5 and to drill 50% faster at lower costs than contemporary drilling processes.

  • Saudi Arabia has maintained high oil production and exports by historical standards in the first half of 2014. This is attributable to large unplanned outages and a healthier-than-expected demand. Our core view is that crude oil and lease condensates production will remain at current levels throughout 2014. This will see production of about 9.78mn b/d for 2014, a 1% increase from 2013 production of 9.68mn b/d, but lower than the record production year of 2012.

  • Our view for 2015 oil production is for a very slight decline or a stagnation of output from 2014 levels, at about 9.8mn b/d. This is based on the same trends and assumptions seen in 2014: continued OPEC outages, a continued increase of domestic consumption from the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Saudi Arabia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Saudi Arabia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
16
Table: Saudi Arabia Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
16
Table: Saudi Arabia Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
17
Refining And Oil Products Trade
25
Table: Saudi Arabia Refining Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
25
Table: Saudi Arabia Refining Production And Consumption - Long-term Forecasts, 2018-2023
25
Gas Supply And Demand
29
Table: Saudi Arabia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
29
Table: Saudi Arabia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
30
Table: Domestic Prices Versus International Prices Paid By Power Producers, 2012 (USD/mnBTU)
38
Revenues/Import Costs
40
Risks To Outlook
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
42
Middle East - Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs)
43
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
45
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
47
Saudi Arabia - Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Market Overview
50
Saudi Arabia Energy Market Overview
50
Overview/State Role
52
Licensing And Regulation
53
Government Policy
53
International Energy Relations
54
Table: Saudi Arabia - Upstream Project Database
57
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
59
Oil Refineries
59
Table: Refineries In Saudi Arabia
59
Oil Processing Facilities
63
Service Stations
63
Oil Terminals/Ports
64
Oil Pipelines
65
Gas Pipelines
66
Competitive Landscape
67
Competitive Landscape Summary
67
Table: Key Players In Saudi Arabia's Oil & Gas Sector
68
Company Profile
69
Saudi Aramco
69
Shell Saudi Arabia
76
ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia
79
Chevron
82
Other Summaries
85
Regional Overview
88
Middle East Energy Market Overview
88
Proven Producers Invest To Lift Oil Output
88
OPEC: Major Hurdles Ahead
93
Consuming It All
95
Gas Rises, But Consumption Does Too
97
Global Industry Overview
101
Global Energy Market Overview
101
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
103
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
104
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
105
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
107
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
107
Appendix
110
Middle East - Regional Appendix
110
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
112
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
112
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
113
Table: Gas Consumption, 2015-2023 (bcm)
114
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
114
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
115
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
115
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
116
Saudi Arabia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
117
Table: Saudi Arabia Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2012-2017
117
Table: Saudi Arabia Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2018-2023
118
Table: Saudi Arabia Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2012-2017
119
Table: Saudi Arabia Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2018-2023
120
Table: Saudi Arabia Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2012-2017
121
Table: Saudi Arabia Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2018-2023
122
Table: Saudi Arabia LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports 2012-2017
123
Table: Saudi Arabia LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports 2018-2023
123
Glossary
125
Table: Glossary Of Terms
125
Methodology
127
Industry Forecast Methodology
127
Source
129
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
129
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
131
Table: Weighting
132

The Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Saudi Arabia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Saudi Arabia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Saudi oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc