Business Monitor International


Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report

Published 03 October 2014

  • 126 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: In an attempt to maintain crude oil export shares in Asia and with increasing use of domestic crude for its refineries, we expect Saudi output to remain stable over the coming months should oil prices remain above the USD90/bbl level. This will see average production of about 9.73mn b/d for 2014, a small increase from 2013 production of 9.68mn b/d, but lower than the record production year of 2012. We do however expect to see a small decline in crude exports with the start of the Yasref refinery. While this is not a 'cut in output' per say, the Kingdom maintaining production at 9.6mn b/d will result in a n effective 'crude export cut' of 200,000b/d cut by the end of the year. The outlook for gas remains tight, despite ambitious plans to tap unconventional resources; we believe that rising consumption and faltering supplies may yet see the Kingdom seriously consider imports.

Headline Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 11,717.3 11,582.0 11,649.2 11,676.7 11,754.5 11,834.1 11,915.5
Refined products production & ethanol, 000b/d 1,935.1 2,012.5 2,153.4 2,325.7 2,504.7 2,755.2 2,975.6
Refined products consumption & ethanol, 000b/d 2,861.0 2,925.0 3,012.8 3,112.2 3,211.8 3,321.0 3,413.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 100.4 101.9 104.9 109.1 113.5 118.0 122.7
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 100.4 101.8 104.9 109.1 113.5 118.0 122.7
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

Click here to explore data

  • In an attempt to maintain crude oil export shares in Asia and with increasing use of domestic crude for its refineries, we expect Saudi output to remain stable over the coming months should oil prices remain above the USD90/bbl level. This will see average production of about 9.73mn b/d for 2014, a small increase from 2013...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Saudi Arabia 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
9
Oil & Gas SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Upstream Exploration
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
11
Upstream Projects
15
Table: Upstream Project Database
15
Upstream Production - Oil
16
Table: Oil Production (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
16
Table: Oil Production (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
17
Upstream Production - Gas
28
Table: Gas Production (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
28
Table: Gas Production (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
28
Refining
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
34
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
35
Refined Fuels Consumption
37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
37
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
38
Gas Consumption
40
Table: Gas Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
40
Table: Gas Consumption (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
40
Table: MAJOR DOWNSTREAM PROJECTS REQUIRING NATURAL GAS FEEDSTOCK
43
Trade - Oil
45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
45
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
45
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
48
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
48
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
50
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
51
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
51
Table: Gas Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
51
Table: Gas Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
52
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
54
Middle East - Risk/Reward Ratings
54
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs)
54
Outperforming The World Upstream
55
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
55
Limited Opportunities Downstream
59
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
59
Saudi Arabia - Risk/Reward Ratings
61
Market Overview
62
Saudi Arabia Energy Market Overview
62
Overview/State Role
64
Licensing And Regulation
65
Government Policy
65
International Energy Relations
66
Table: Saudi Arabia - Upstream Project Database
68
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
71
Oil Refineries
71
Table: Refineries In Saudi Arabia
71
Oil Processing Facilities
75
Service Stations
76
Oil Terminals/Ports
76
Oil Pipelines
77
Gas Pipelines
78
Competitive Landscape
79
Competitive Landscape Summary
79
Table: Key Players In Saudi Arabia's Oil & Gas Sector
80
Company Profile
81
Saudi Aramco
81
Shell Saudi Arabia
89
ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia
92
Chevron
95
Other Summaries
98
Regional Overview
101
Industry Forecast
101
Middle East Oil Production - Strong Growth But Risks Remain
101
Middle East Oil Consumption - Subsidies Fuelling Demand
103
Middle East Refining Capacity - A Bullish Outlook
104
Middle East Gas Production - A Growing Domestic Priority
105
Middle East Gas Consumption - Demand Growth Outstripping Production
106
Global Industry Overview
108
Global Energy Market Overview
108
Appendix
114
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
114
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
114
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
115
Middle East - Regional Appendix
117
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
118
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
119
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
119
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
120
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
120
Table: Gas Consumption, 2015-2023 (bcm)
121
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
121
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
122
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
122
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
123
Saudi Arabia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
124
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
124
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
125
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
128
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
129
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
130
Table: LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
131
Saudi Arabia - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
131
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2012-2017)
131
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Saudi Arabia 2018-2023)
131
Glossary
133
Table: Glossary Of Terms
133
Methodology
135
Industry Forecast Methodology
135
Source
137
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
137
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
139
Table: Weighting
140

The Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Saudi Arabia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Saudi Arabia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Saudi oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc