Business Monitor International


Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report

Published 20 March 2014

  • 126 pages
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$1,295.00
Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: We expect Saudi crude production to remain elevated but decline in 2014 and 2015. This view is based on rising non-OPEC supplies, assumed growth in Iraqi production and the potential of higher volumes from Iran. However, major disruptions to supplies from key producers such as Libya , and expectations for a recovery in global demand for crude , are likely to keep production elevated, pos ing upside risks to our forecasts. Major downstream additions are to continue into 2014 while Aramco is planning a major effort to tap conventional and unconventional shale gas reserves. The outlook for gas remains tight, despite ambitious plans to tap unconventional resources; we believe that rising consumption and faltering supplies may yet see the Kingdom seriously consider imports.

The outlook for gas remains tight, despite ambitious plans to tap unconventional resources; we believe that rising consumption and faltering supplies may yet see the Kingdom seriously consider imports.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Saudi Arabia's oil and gas sector:

  • Higher exports in early 2014 were driven by healthier-than-expected demand. On the back of an improving global economy, exports were robust at the start of the year with Saudi Arabia drawing on stockpiles rather than raising output to support new exports. With output in OPEC countries such as Libya still weak, there is room for Saudi output to remain high over 2014.

  • Our core view for now remains for liquids production to decline by 0.8% in 2014 to 11.3mn b/d. We also see increasing risks that in line with production cutbacks to continue into 2015, with a 0.5% decline currently pencilled in. However, given Saudi Arabia's unique role in acting as the world's supplier of last resort, disruptions elsewhere or stronger-than-expected global demand could support increased production. That said, rising supplies within OPEC - namely from Iraq - and outside OPEC - with North American output to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Saudi Arabia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Saudi Arabia Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
16
Table: Saudi Arabia Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
16
Table: Saudi Arabia Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
17
Refining And Oil Products Trade
25
Table: Saudi Arabia Refining Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
25
Table: Saudi Arabia Refining Production And Consumption - Long-term Forecasts, 2018-2023
25
Gas Supply And Demand
29
Table: Saudi Arabia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2011-2016
29
Table: Saudi Arabia Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2017-2022
30
Table: Domestic Prices Versus International Prices Paid By Power Producers, 2012 (US$/MNBTU)
38
Revenues/Import Costs
41
Risks To Outlook
42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
43
Middle East - Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Table: BMI's Middle East Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
46
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Rating
48
Saudi Arabia - Risk/Reward Ratings
50
Market Overview
51
Saudi Arabia Energy Market Overview
51
Overview/State Role
53
Licensing And Regulation
54
Government Policy
54
International Energy Relations
55
Table: Saudi Arabia - Upstream Project Database
58
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
60
Oil Refineries
60
Table: Refineries In Saudi Arabia
60
Oil Processing Facilities
64
Service Stations
64
Oil Terminals/Ports
65
Oil Pipelines
66
Gas Pipelines
67
Competitive Landscape
68
Table: Key Players In Saudi Arabia's Oil & Gas Sector
69
Company Profile
70
Saudi Aramco
70
Shell Saudi Arabia
76
ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia
79
Chevron
82
Other Summaries
85
Regional Overview
88
Middle East Energy Market Overview
88
Consuming It All
94
Gas Rises, But Consumption Does Too
96
Global Industry Overview
101
Global Energy Market Overview
101
Appendix
109
Middle East - Regional Appendix
109
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
112
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
112
Table: Gas Consumption, 2015-2022 (bcm)
113
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
113
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
114
Table: Net LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
114
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
115
Saudi Arabia - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
116
Table: Saudi Arabia Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2012-2017
116
Table: Saudi Arabia Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2018-2023
117
Table: Saudi Arabia Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2012-2017
118
Table: Saudi Arabia Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2018-2023
119
Table: Saudi Arabia Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2012-2017
120
Table: Saudi Arabia Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2018-2023
121
Table: Saudi Arabia LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports 2012-2017
122
Table: Saudi Arabia LPG Production, Consumption and Net Exports 2018-2023
122
Glossary
124
Table: Glossary Of Terms
124
Methodology
126
Industry Forecast Methodology
126
Source
128
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
128
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
130
Table: Weighting
132

The Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Saudi Arabia including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Saudi Arabia to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Saudi oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc