Business Monitor International


Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report

Published 14 October 2014

  • 104 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report

It is a mixed picture for the Saudi Arabian freight transport sector in 2014 and 2015. A number of the Kingdom's ports are expected to see another year of throughput declines in 2014, though we believe they will return to growth the following year. We believe that growth at Saudi Arabian ports will return to strength over the medium term and the construction of new facilities, while potentially impacting on some existing ports like the Jeddah Islamic Port, will serve to strengthen the sector further. The outlook for growth in air and rail freight volumes is broadly upbeat, however. Air freight will continue performing well with the help of national carrier Saudia, and the country's rail freight sector is expanding at an impressive rate.

Specific investments in expanding maritime facilities, and in projects such as the Saudi Landbridge and the north-south railway, coupled with strong economic growth on the back of large oil receipts, will continue to boost freight volumes over the medium and long term.

Headline Industry Data

  • Total Saudi Arabian trade set to grow by 3.2% in 2014 in real terms, with imports growing 5.0% and exports by 1.4%. This marks a return to growth following 2013's contraction. Real trade growth will average 2.6% to 2018.

  • Air freight volumes set to grow 5.0% in 2014, to reach 1.12mn tonnes. Growth to 2018 to average 5.1% a year.

  • 2014 Jeddah Islamic Port total tonnage throughput forecast to undergo a second consecutive year of declines, falling 7.0%. Growth will return in 2015 and average 2.9% over the medium term to 2018.

  • 2014 rail freight volumes forecast to grow by 9.0% in 2014 and to average 10.5% over our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Bahri Completes First Phase Of Vela Integration :   The National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia (Bahri) has completed the first phase process of incorporating the Vela fleet and operations, according to a statement by the former. The move makes Bahri an exclusive carrier of Aramco...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
10
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Rail
16
Table: Rail Freight (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
18
Air
18
Table: Air Freight (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
20
Maritime
20
Table: Maritime Freight, (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
22
Trade
23
Table: Trade Overview (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
23
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
24
Table: Main Import Partners, 2004-2012
25
Table: Main Export Partners, 2004-2012
26
Market Overview
28
Industry Trends And Developments
36
Air
36
Rail Freight
36
Maritime
37
Company Profile
39
Saudi Airlines Cargo (Saudia)
39
Vela International Marine (Vela)
45
Bahri
48
United Arab Shipping Company (UASC)
55
Political Outlook
58
Domestic Politics
58
Long-Term Political Outlook
62
Table: SAUDI ARABIA - POLITICAL OVERVIEW
68
Oil Price Outlook
70
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
70
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
70
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
72
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
76
Risks To Outlook
77
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
78
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
78
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
83
Risks To Outlook
84
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
85
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
85
Supply Keeps Market Down
85
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
87
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
88
Risks To Outlook
91
Macroeconomic Forecasts
92
Economic Analysis
92
Table: BMI AND BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS* FORECASTS FOR BRENT, USD/BBL
95
Table: Economic Activity (Saudi Arabia 2009-2018)
98
Demographic Forecast
99
Table: Saudi Arabia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
100
Table: Saudi Arabia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
101
Table: Saudi Arabia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
102
Table: Saudi Arabia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
102
Methodology
103
Industry Forecast Methodology
103
Sector-Specific Methodology
104
Sources
105

The Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Saudi Arabia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc