Business Monitor International


Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report

Published 24 July 2014

  • 104 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report

The outlook for the Saudi Arabian freight transport sector is broadly upbeat. Although some ports saw a contraction in either gross tonnage or container handling - or both - in 2013, 2014 will see most of these facilities return to growth. It should also be noted that the 2013 contraction followed extraordinary growth in 2012 as the government stimulus package made itself felt. We believe that growth at Saudi Arabian ports will remain strong over the medium term and the construction of new facilities, while potentially impacting on some existing ports like the Jeddah Islamic Port, will serve to strengthen the sector further.

The other freight modes are also set for strong growth, with air freight performing well with the help of national carrier Saudia, and the country's rail freight sector expanding at an impressive rate.

Specific investments in expanding maritime facilities, and in projects such as the Saudi Landbridge and the north-south railway, coupled with strong economic growth on the back of large oil receipts, will continue to boost freight volumes over the medium and long term.

Headline Industry Data

  • Total Saudi Arabian trade set to grow by 3.2% in 2014 in real terms, with imports growing 5.0% and exports by 1.4%. This marks a return to growth following 2013's contraction. Real trade growth will average 2.6% to 2018.

  • Air freight volumes set to grow 7.5% in 2014, to reach 766,160 tonnes. Growth to 2018 to average 6.5% a year.

  • 2014 Jeddah Islamic Port total tonnage throughput forecast to undergo a second consecutive year of declines, falling 7.0%. Growth will return in 2015 and average 4.8% over the medium term to 2018.

  • 2014 rail freight volumes forecast to grow by 9.0% in 2014 and to average 10.5% over our forecast period.

Key Industry Trends

Government Aims To Build New Shipyard At Yanbu :  The Saudi Arabian government and an international shipbuilding joint venture partner are scheduled to construct a major new shipyard in the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
10
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Rail
16
Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018
17
Air
17
Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018
19
Maritime
19
Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
21
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
22
Table: Main Import Partners, 2004-2012
23
Table: Main Export Partners, 2004-2012
24
Market Overview
26
Industry Trends And Developments
34
Air
34
Maritime
34
Company Profile
36
Saudi Airlines Cargo (Saudia)
36
Vela International Marine (Vela)
42
Bahri
45
Political Outlook
52
Domestic Politics
52
Table: Saudi Arabia - Recent Leadership Changes
53
Foreign Policy
54
Table: Possible Scenarios For Iran As Diplomacy Advances
56
Long-Term Political Outlook
59
Table: Saudi Arabia - Political Overview
66
Oil Price Outlook
67
Diesel
67
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
67
New York's One-Off Heat Up
67
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
70
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
74
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
76
Risks To Outlook
80
Jet Fuel
81
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
81
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
81
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
83
Risks To Outlook
86
Bunker Fuel
87
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
87
The Storm Clears For Shipping
88
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
90
Long-Term Threats Linger
91
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
93
Risks To Outlook
94
Macroeconomic Forecasts
95
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts For Brent, Q114-2016 (USD/BBL)
97
Demographic Forecast
102
Table: Saudi Arabia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
103
Table: Saudi Arabia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
104
Table: Saudi Arabia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
105
Table: Saudi Arabia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
105
Methodology
106
Industry Forecast Methodology
106
Sector-Specific Methodology
107
Sources
108

The Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Saudi freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Saudi Arabia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc