Business Monitor International


Saudi Arabia Defence & Security Report

Published 09 May 2014

  • 95 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Saudi Arabia Defence & Security Report

BMI View: According to a report published in April 2014 by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Saudi Arabia is in the top 23 spenders on arms, having more than doubled its military expenditure since 2004, the organisation states. In 2014, we expect Saudi Arabia to spend USD59.2bn on defence. By 2018, we expect Saudi Arabia to have increased its defence expenditure to USD72.7bn.

The country has a low risk of becoming involved in a major international conflict, although it does face a slightly higher risk of terrorist attack, the country does not face a particularly high risk of experiencing major criminal activity.

During a meeting between US defence secretary, Chuck Hagel and Saudi Arabia's defence minister, Crown Prince Salman bin Abdul Aziz, in May 2013 held in Jeddah, the two countries agreed to deepen their cooperation in the field of ballistic missile defence, maritime security and cyber defence. Moreover, as a reflection of the improving relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Riyadh invited the Iranian foreign ministry to visit the country in May 2014. It has not been confirmed whether Iran has responded to the invitation.

Regarding defence procurement, in June 2014 Swiss aircraft manufacturer Pilatus commenced deliveries of its PC-21 turboprop lead-in trainer to the Royal Saudi Air Force. An initial batch of six aircraft left the company's factory in June 2014 bound for Saudi Arabia. The Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) will eventually acquire a total of 55 aircraft by 2016.

  • Key Forecasts:Defence expenditure in 2015 is forecast to increase by 5.5% y-o-y from 2014, to reach 62.4USDbn.

  • Total armed forces is forecast to rise from 16,706,296 in 2014 to 17,008,083 in 2015.

  • Defence Imports of Bombs, grenades, mines, missiles and ammunition is forecast to total 826.4USDmn in 2015, this is a 3.4% y-o-y increase from 2014.

  • Defence imports of arms and ammunition is forecast to increase from 865.5USDmn in 2014 to 887.4USDmn in 2015.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT Analysis
8
Saudi Arabia Security SWOT
8
Saudi Arabia Defence SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
16
Defence Expenditure
16
Table: Defence Expenditure (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
17
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
17
Armed Forces
18
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Saudi Arabia 2004-2011)
18
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
19
Defence Trade
20
Table: Defence Exports (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
21
Table: Defence Imports (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
22
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* For Brent, Q114-2016 (US$/bbl)
25
Table: Saudi Arabia - Economic Activity, 2009-2018
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Middle East And Africa Security Risk Ratings
32
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Ratings
32
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
33
Saudi Arabia Security Risk Ratings
34
Market Overview
35
Saudi Arabia Defence Market Overview
35
Saudi Army
35
Saudi Air Force
39
Saudi Navy
42
Saudi National Guard
44
Saudi Air Defence Force
45
Domestic Industries
46
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
47
Imports
47
Exports
48
Saudi Arabia Security Overview
49
Domestic Threats
49
Regional Threats And Relations
54
International Threats And Relations
58
Company Profile
60
BAE Systems
60
Thales International
62
Regional Overview
64
Middle East And North Africa Security Overview
64
Global Political Outlook
80
Methodology
86
Industry Forecast Methodology
86
Sector-Specific Methodology
87
Sources
88
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
88
Sector-Specific Methodology
89
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
89

The Saudi Arabia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Saudi Arabia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Saudi defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Saudi Arabia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Saudi defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc