Business Monitor International


Saudi Arabia Defence & Security Report

Published 22 January 2014

  • 95 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Saudi Arabia Defence & Security Report

BMI View: BMI 's Q3 2014 Saudi Arabia Defence and Security Report examines the country's strategic position in the Middle East and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

BMI expects Saudi Arabia to spend USD57.96bn on defence in 2014. By 2018 we expect the country to spend USD69.30bn on defence annually. In total Saudi Arabia maintained on average 234,200 personnel across all four of its armed forces between 2003 and 2011. The country is a net importer of military equipment, but there are some small-scale exports of military equipment. On average, we expect the country to export USD6.1mn of arms and ammunition by 2018.

BMI give Saudi Arabia an overall security risk rating of 77 out of 100 for Q314, an increase from the country's average overall security risk rating of 75 between early 2008 and the time of writing. Saudi Arabia's risk of becoming involved in a major interstate conflict is low. The country is at more risk from a major terrorist attack, although we consider that it is at slightly less risk of serious criminal activity.

A diplomatic crisis erupted between Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Qatar in early March 2014. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain recalled their ambassadors to the Gulf Cooperation Council in opposition to Qatar's continued support of the Muslim Brotherhood, and in retaliation for its increasing involvement in conflicts around the Middle East and North Africa. Meanwhile, tensions grew between Russia and Saudi Arabia in February 2014 with the former urging the latter to desist from supplying rebels fighting the government of the Syrian president, Bashir al-Assad, with man-portable surface-to-air missile launchers and anti-tank missile systems.

Regarding defence procurement activity, in March 2014, the US Congress gave permission for for Saudi Arabia to procure precision-guided bombs. Meanwhile, in February 2014 BAE...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Saudi Arabia Security SWOT
8
Saudi Arabia Defence SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
16
Defence Expenditure
16
Table: Saudi Arabia Defence Expenditure 2010-2017
17
Table: Saudi Arabia Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
17
Armed Forces
18
Table: Saudi Arabia Armed Forces ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
19
Table: Saudi Arabia Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated)
19
Defence Trade
20
Exports
20
Table: Saudi Arabia Defence Exports (US$mn)
21
Imports
21
Table: Saudi Arabia Defence Imports (US$mn)
22
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Table: Saudi Arabia - Economic Activity
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
MENA Security Risk Ratings
34
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Ratings
34
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
35
Saudi Arabia Security Rating
35
Market Overview
37
Saudi Arabia Defence Market Overview
37
Armed Forces
37
Domestic Industries
48
Weapons of Mass Destruction
49
Imports
50
Exports
51
Saudi Arabia Security Market Overview
51
Domestic Threats
51
Regional Threats
58
International Threats
61
Company Profile
62
BAE Systems
62
Thales International
64
Regional Overview
66
Middle East and Africa Security Overview
66
Global Industry Overview
82
Global Political Outlook
82
Table: ELECTION TIMETABLE, 2014
86
Methodology
91
Industry Forecast Methodology
91
Sector-Specific Methodology
92
Sources
93
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
93
Sector-Specific Methodology
93
Table: Security Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
94
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
95

The Saudi Arabia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Saudi Arabia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Saudi defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Saudi Arabia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Saudi defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Saudi defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Saudi Arabia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Ratings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc