Business Monitor International


Saudi Arabia Defence & Security Report

Published 02 December 2014

  • 95 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Saudi Arabia Defence & Security Report

BMI View:   Within an extremely complex region, Saudi Arabia's security and defence situation faces a number of challenges both on the internal and external front. BMI thinks that Saudi Arabia's defence and security policy-making is been affected by internal political rivalry within the Kingdom. Our view is that it is unlikely to become involved in an interstate conflict, and that its traditional leverage in Yemen, where it has previously intervened has been weakened . We think that its decision to join the coalition against the Islamic State is illustrative of a continuing counter-terrorism policy in view of its fears of attacks inside the Kingdom.

On the interstate front, Saudi Arabia seems to be continuing attempts to improve its relations with Iran to iron out some of the regional instability. On Saudi Arabia's northern border in Q414, we saw Iran shift its position in favour of Maliki to whom King Abdullah was strongly opposed. On Saudi Arabia's southern border, we saw the two states seemingly cooperate in bringing about the Houthi advance in Yemen and both sides seem willing to strengthen the Lebanese army.

BMI thinks the conventional military balance between Iran and Saudi Arabia continues to be an issue and the situation requires close observation. While Iran remains cut off from the world's arms market due to sanctions, Saudi Arabia is the world's fourth largest military expenditure, which has most probably not gone unseen in Tehran. For us, it seems that Saudi Arabia is responding to Iran's nuclear programme by investing in its own long-standing Strategic Missile Force. However, Saudi Arabia's defence sector undoubtedly needs to overcome its own internal challenges where Q414 saw the sacking of the fourth defence minister in 15 months, which raises concerns about an internal power struggle.

On the security front, the threat of terrorism both from the Islamic State (IS) and the Al Qaeda on the Arabia Peninsula (AQAP) is a key issue. We think that...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT Analysis
8
Saudi Arabia Security SWOT
8
Saudi Arabia Defence SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
16
Defence Expenditure
16
Table: Defence Expenditure (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
17
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
17
Armed Forces
18
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Saudi Arabia 2004-2011)
18
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
19
Defence Trade
20
Table: Defence Exports (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
21
Table: Defence Imports (Saudi Arabia 2011-2018)
22
Macroeconomic Forecasts
23
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Forecasts* For Brent, Q114-2016 (US$/bbl)
25
Table: Saudi Arabia - Economic Activity, 2009-2018
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Middle East And Africa Security Risk Ratings
32
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Security Ratings
32
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
33
Saudi Arabia Security Risk Ratings
34
Market Overview
35
Saudi Arabia Defence Market Overview
35
Saudi Army
35
Saudi Air Force
39
Saudi Navy
42
Saudi National Guard
44
Saudi Air Defence Force
45
Domestic Industries
46
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
47
Imports
47
Exports
48
Saudi Arabia Security Overview
49
Domestic Threats
49
Regional Threats And Relations
54
International Threats And Relations
58
Company Profile
60
BAE Systems
60
Thales International
62
Regional Overview
64
Middle East And North Africa Security Overview
64
Global Political Outlook
80
Methodology
86
Industry Forecast Methodology
86
Sector-Specific Methodology
87
Sources
88
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
88
Sector-Specific Methodology
89
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
89

The Saudi Arabia Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Saudi Arabia Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Saudi defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Saudi Arabia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Saudi defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc