Business Monitor International


Russia Telecommunications Report

Published 26 June 2014

  • 142 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Telecommunications Report

BMI View: Russi a's telecoms market is increasingly showing signs of consolidation among the largest four operators and the smaller regional players. As penetration has reached around 170% in the mobile market as of Q114, this allows the major operators to continue to grow subscriber bases where organic growth opportunities are beginning to become saturated. The fixed-line segment is declining at a slower rate than in neighbouring markets and the broadband market has expanded rapidly. Healthy competition and the demand for coverage provide good growth opportunities.

Key Data

  • The mobile market saw an overall net decline of 1.34mn subscribers in Q114, a further sign of slowing growth compared to the 90,000 loss in Q113.

    • The latest data release from AC&M Consulting shows there were 23.2mn wireline broadband subscriptions at mid-2013, up by 14.2% y-o-y, as the penetration rate reached 16.5%.

    • FTTx subscriptions increased to 3.51mn at the end of September 2013, from 2.51mn a year earlier. Russian pay-TV subscriber base grew by 2% in Q114, totalling 35mn. Penetration of pay-TV services reached 64% during this time, with the seven largest operators accounting for 80% of the market.

    • According to MTS' estimates, the market for M2M exceeded 4.8mn SIM cards at the end of 2013, representing about 2% of subscriptions in the Russian mobile market.

Key Trends And Developments

Rostelecom has completed the first stage of its deal to form a joint venture (JV) with Tele2 Russia in April 2014. The JV will be named as T2 RTK Holding. Under the first stage, Rostelecom has provided the share of its mobile subsidiaries to the venture, with debt obligations of RUB37bn (USD1.03bn) have also been transferred to the JV. The second stage, which will require transferring all of Rostelecom's integrated mobile assets to the JV, is expected to be completed by the end of 2014.

In April 2014, Megafon completed the integration of Scartel and Yota, which it purchased back in...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Mobile SWOT
8
Wireline SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Mobile
15
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2011-2018)
15
ARPU
17
Wireline
18
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2011-2018)
18
Fixed Line
18
Internet
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
22
Central and Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Table: CEE Telecoms Risk/Rewards Ratings, Q314
25
Market Overview
27
Mobile
27
Regional Perspective
27
Table: Russia Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2013
28
Key Developments
28
Mobile Growth
29
Market Share And Net Additions
32
Table: Net Additions By Operator ('000), 2012-2014
34
Subscription Mix
34
Usage
35
Table: Market Share Of VAS (%)
38
MVNOs
39
Networks
40
Mobile Content/Value Added Services
45
Mobile Operator Tables
50
Table: Russia Mobile Market Overview
50
Table: MTS
50
Table: MegaFon
51
Table: VimpelCom
53
Table: Tele2
54
Table: Rostelecom
55
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
56
Wireline
61
Broadband
66
Pay-TV
79
Industry Trends And Developments
80
Regulatory Development
85
Table: Russia - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
85
Regulatory Developments
88
Competitive Landscape
91
Table: Key Players In The Russian Telecoms Sector
91
Company Profile
92
Rostelecom
92
Table: Rostelecom Subscriptions By Service And Geography ('000), Q114
97
Mobile TeleSystems (MTS)
99
VimpelCom
106
MegaFon
116
Regional Overview
125
Table: Ericsson Quarterly And Annual Results By Segment (SEKbn)
126
Demographic Forecast
129
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
130
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
131
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
132
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
132
Glossary
133
Table: Glossary Of Terms
133
Methodology
135
Industry Forecast Methodology
135
Sources
136
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
137
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
138
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
139

The Russia Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Russia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Russia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Russia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Russian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Russia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
  • Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
  • Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.

The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc