Business Monitor International


Russia Telecommunications Report

Published 30 December 2014

  • 146 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Telecommunications Report

BMI View: The k ey theme for Russian mobile market s has been that of consolidation. Although the merger of Tele2 and Rostelecom has been finalised, BMI believes that there is further consolidation and rationalisation in the pipeline as mobile operators try to stay competitive in an already highly saturated market. Although market saturation reached 166 % in Q214, BMI believes that there is still some scope for growth as some of these subscribers will be discounted as inactive SIM-cards get deactivated. Expanding LTE services offer opportunities for more value-add data products to add revenue, while rural areas could provide customer base growth.

Key Data

  • The value of the Russian mobile market bounced back to 241.46mn in Q2114, according to data from the operators and from AC&M Consulting, with penetration increasing to 166%.

  • The latest data release from AC&M Consulting shows there were 23.2mn wireline broadband subscriptions at mid-2013, up by 14.2% y-o-y, as the penetration rate reached 16.5%.

  • FTTx subscriptions increased to 3.51mn at the end of September 2013, from 2.51mn a year earlier. The Russian pay-TV subscriber base grew by 2% in Q114, totalling 35mn. Penetration of pay-TV services reached 64% during this time, with the seven largest operators accounting for 80% of the market.

Key Trends And Developments

Rostelecom has concluded the second and final stage of its deal to form a new national mobile operator in collaboration with Tele2 Russia. Rostelecom has transferred 100% of its stake in its subsidiary CJSC RT-Mobile to the new joint venture (JV) with Tele2 Russia. Under the deal, Rostelecom spun off its combined mobile assets into RT-Mobile and its licences have been reissued to the new venture. Rostelecom will own a 45% stake in the JV's share capital. Most of the assets spun off were in rural areas of Volga, Urals and Sibera. This leads BMI to believe that the newly formed Tele 2 will focus more on expanding into rural areas. T2...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Mobile SWOT
8
Wireline SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Mobile
15
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2011-2018)
15
ARPU
17
Wireline
19
Table: Telecoms Sector - Wireline - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2011-2018)
19
Fixed Line
19
Internet
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
22
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q414
26
Market Overview
28
Central And Eastern Europe Mobile Content
28
Mobile
33
Regional Perspective
33
Table: Russia Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2013
34
Key Developments
34
Mobile Growth
35
Market Share And Net Additions
39
Table: Net Additions By Operator ('000), 2012-2014
40
Subscription Mix
41
Usage
41
Table: Market Share Of VAS (%)
45
MVNOs
46
Networks
47
Mobile Content/Value Added Services
52
Mobile Operator Tables
58
Table: Russia Mobile Market Overview
58
Table: MTS
58
Table: MegaFon
59
Table: VimpelCom
61
Table: Tele2
62
Table: Rostelecom
63
Wireline
64
Broadband
69
Pay-TV
83
Industry Trends And Developments
84
Regulatory Development
89
Table: Russia - Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
89
Regulatory Developments
92
Competitive Landscape
95
Table: Key Players In The Russian Telecoms Sector
95
Company Profile
96
Rostelecom
96
Table: Rostelecom Subscriptions By Service And Geography ('000), Q214
101
Mobile TeleSystems (MTS)
104
VimpelCom
110
MegaFon
120
Regional Overview
129
Business Divisions
129
Table: ENT: Revenue By Business Segment (HRKmn)
129
Financial Performance
129
Geographical Performance
130
Table: ENT: Revenue By Geography (HRKmn)
131
Domestic Market
131
Export Markets
132
Ericsson Market
133
Outlook
134
Table: Selected Contracts, 2013/14
135
Demographic Forecast
136
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
137
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
138
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
139
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
139
Glossary
140
Table: Glossary Of Terms
140
Methodology
142
Industry Forecast Methodology
142
Sources
144
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
144
Table: Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
145
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
146

The Russia Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Russia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.

BMI's Russia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Russia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Russian telecoms market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Russia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering the ARPU, fi xed-line, mobile (including 3G & 4G ), internet and broadband markets.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2010-2013) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

  • Fixed-line Telephony – Telephone lines (‘000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
  • Cellular Telephony – Mobile phone subscribers (‘000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; and where available, 3G & 4G subscribers (‘000); 3G & 4G subscribers/100 inhabitants; 3G & 4G subscribers as a percentage of overall mobile market.
  • Internet Markets – Internet users (‘000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers (‘000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.

BMI’s Telecommunications Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide an Indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Data Analysis

Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed-line and internet segments, broken down into:

  • Market Data – Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
  • Technology/Service Rollout – Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G & 4G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and valueadded handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
  • Mobile Content – The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators, including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
    Company Database – A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G & 4G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).

Regulatory Environment

Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. Also covers the latest updates in the market’s development and regulatory rulings.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Sources

The Telecommunications Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc