BMI View: Although Russian mobile market is reaching consolidation, BMI believes that there is scope for revenue and customer base growth. Although the market saturation reached 170.6% in Q214, BMI believes that some of these subscribers will be discounted as inactive SIM-cards get deactivated. Expanding LTE services offer opportunities for more value-add data products to add revenue, while rural areas could provide customer base growth. The fixed-line segment is declining at a slower rate than in neighbouring markets and the broadband market has expanded rapidly. Healthy competition and the demand for coverage provide good growth opportunities.
The mobile market saw an overall net gain of 1.6mn subscribers in Q214, over 2013 the Russian market added 12.3mn new customers.
The latest data release from AC&M Consulting shows there were 23.2mn wireline broadband subscriptions at mid-2013, up by 14.2% y-o-y, as the penetration rate reached 16.5%.
FTTx subscriptions increased to 3.51mn at the end of September 2013, from 2.51mn a year earlier. Russian pay-TV subscriber base grew by 2% in Q114, totalling 35mn. Penetration of pay-TV services reached 64% during this time, with the seven largest operators accounting for 80% of the market.
Key Trends And Developments
Rostelecom has concluded the second and final stage of its deal to form a new national mobile operator in collaboration with Tele2 Russia. Rostelecom has transferred 100% of its stake in its subsidiary CJSC RT-Mobile to the new joint venture (JV) Tele2 Russia. Under the deal, Rostelecom spun off its combined mobile assets into RT-Mobile and its licences have been reissued to the new venture. Rostelecom will own a 45% stake in the JV's share capital. Most of the assets spun off were in rural areas of Volga, Urals and Sibera. This leads BMI to believe that the newly formed Tele 2 will focus more on expanding into rural areas.
In April 2014, Megafon completed the integration...
The Russia Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Russia's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Russia Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Russia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Russian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Russia's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.