Business Monitor International


Russia Power Report

Published 14 May 2014

  • 92 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Power Report

BMI View : Risk aversion, capital outflows, a weak rouble and emergency monetary tightening underpin our deteriorating outlook for the Russian economy and - by extension - the domestic power sector. The strong correlation between economic activity and power demand means that the crisis in Ukraine has suppressed our forecasts for the power sector - based on the bleak outlook for investor sentiment and FDI, as well as softening consumer purchasing power.

Our already subdued outlook for Russia's domestic power market has deteriorated further this quarter due to significant downward revisions to our broader economic growth forecasts. Power demand in Russia is highly correlated with economic development and industrial production and a slowdown across the broader economy will lead to weaker growth in the power sector. There were already signs that the economy was weakening in 2013 - weakness that will now be exacerbated by the fallout from Russia's incursion into Ukraine in 2014.

Investor confidence in Russia has been damaged by the country's involvement in the Ukraine crisis and the implications for the economy and - by extension - the power sector are significant. Although we believe that investors have priced-out the possibility of Russia invading Eastern Ukraine and the West disrupting Russia's trade and capital cross-border flows in retaliation, our Country Risk team now expects real GDP growth of 1.0% in 2014 and 1.5% in 2015, as opposed to previous forecasts of 1.9% and 2.1% respectively.

Specifically, although our core view is that Western sanctions will be little more than symbolic in nature and direct Russian military intervention in Eastern Ukraine is increasingly unlikely, risk aversion has led to major capital outflows from Russia in Q114. As such, the outlook for foreign direct investment (FDI) in Russia is bleak. While we do not anticipate a full-scale exodus of Western capital, planned projects may be delayed as businesses wait for greater political...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
13
Russia Snapshot
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Russia 2013-2018)
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Russia 2018-2023)
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
13
Russia Power Forecast Scenario
14
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2017)
14
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Russia 2018-2023)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2017)
17
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Russia 2018-2023)
17
Electricity Consumption
32
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2017)
32
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Russia 2018-2023)
32
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Export
34
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2017)
34
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Russia 2018-2023)
34
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2017)
34
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Russia 2018-2023)
34
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
40
CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Table: Regional Overview
45
Russia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Rewards
46
Risks
47
Market Overview
49
Key Policies And Market Structure
49
Regulation And Competition
49
Sustainable Energy Policies
50
Pricing
51
Russia Power Projects Database
54
Table: Major Projects - Power
54
Competitive Landscape
59
Federal Grid Company (FGC)
59
Inter RAO UES
60
Gazprom Energoholding
60
E
61
Enel
62
Company Profile
63
E
63
Inter RAO
77
Regional Overview
80
CEE Power Regional Overview
80
Glossary
87
Table: Glossary Of Terms
87
Methodology
88
Industry Forecast Methodology
88
Sources
91
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
91
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
92
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
94

The Russia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Russia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Russia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Russia
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc