Business Monitor International


Russia Power Report

Published 26 February 2014

  • 92 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Power Report

BMI View : A slowdown in household consumption and the Kremlin 's failure to sufficiently address structural impediments to investment are likely to continue to weigh on the Russian power sector - based on the fact that power demand remains highly correlated with economic development and industrial production. While the Russian power market is huge in terms of its sheer scale, we maintain our view that it will only register subdued growth over our forecast period as macroeconomic headwinds, a difficult political environment and weak institutional capacity continue to discourage foreign investment. As such, with much of the country's aging capacity having been built in the 1960s and 1970s, we expect most of the investment that is channelled into the power sector to be targeted at modernising and substituting aging and inefficient thermal and nuclear capacity, and improving the inadequate transmission infrastructure.

Our relatively subdued outlook for the Russian power market continues to be underpinned by our downbeat forecasts for Russian economic growth this quarter. In line with our already bearish view on the Russian economy, real GDP growth continued to slow in 2013 - coming in at a modest 1.3%. While a breakdown of the Q413 result was not available at the time of writing, BMI's Country Risk team expects fixed investment to have continued to drag on growth in the fourth quarter - much like it did over the preceding nine months. At the same time, the main driver of growth over the past decade - household consumption - continues to weaken. We have said previously, that we believe such a slowdown is structural rather than cyclical and, as a consequence, unless structural reforms are implemented, economic growth is likely to remain subdued over our forecast period to 2023.

Indeed, despite the Russian authorities taking steps to actively encourage investment, the Kremlin continues to fail to address supply-side impediments. To this end, while...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
13
Russia Snapshot
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
13
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
13
Russia Power Forecast Scenario
14
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
14
Table: Russia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
14
Table: Russia Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
15
Table: Russia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
17
Table: Russia Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
18
Electricity Consumption
31
Table: Russia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
31
Table: Russia Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
32
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
33
Table: Russia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
33
Table: Russia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
34
Table: Russia Trade Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
34
Table: Russia Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
34
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
39
CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings, (Scores Out Of 100)
45
Russia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
46
Rewards
46
Risks
47
Market Overview
49
Key Policies And Market Structure
49
Regulation And Competition
49
Sustainable Energy Policies
50
Pricing
51
Russia Power Projects Database
54
Table: Major Projects - Power
54
Competitive Landscape
58
Federal Grid Company (FGC)
58
Inter RAO UES
59
Gazprom Energoholding
59
E
60
Enel
60
Company Profile
62
E
62
Table: E
69
Inter RAO
75
Regional Overview
78
CEE Regional Overview
78
Glossary
85
Table: Glossary Of Terms
85
Methodology
86
Industry Forecast Methodology
86
Sources
89
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
89
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
90
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
92

The Russia Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Russia Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Russia's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Russia
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Ratings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc