Business Monitor International


Russia Infrastructure Report

Published 29 April 2014

  • 109 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Infrastructure Report

BMI View:   We have downgraded our forecast for construction industry value real growth in Russia from -0.5% to -3.7% year-on-year ( y-o-y ) . This is on the back of official reports citing weaker than expected growth in 2013 as well as a deteriorating business environment . Russia's actions in Ukraine have prompted the European Union to impose sanctions that will constrain the country's access to capital for infrastructure projects . This be arish outlook is exacerbated by falling private investment, stubbornly high inflation, and slow ing economic growth.

Key Trend And D evelopments

  • Recent developments have prompted our Country Risk team to revise down our GDP growth forecasts for Russia. Russia's annexation of Crimea and perceived belligerence towards Ukraine throughout Q114 triggered significant rouble volatility and massive private net capital outflows, which at USD50.6bn came close to the outflows for the whole of 2013 (USD59.7bn). The flight of capital, which could have otherwise been deployed to productive investment domestically, has worsened the investment outlook. 

  • Russia's actions in Ukraine have resulted in sanctions from the EU which target loans from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the European Investment Bank (EIB). We expect these sanctions will have a significant impact on the Russian government's capacity to fund infrastructure projects.

  • The government has cancelled two recently awarded projects - the Taman port and Lena bridge - in order to free resources to fund their investment projects in Crimea's infrastructure. 

  • Infrastructure associated with the export of commodities (pipelines, ports and transport infrastructure - to support oil and gas output east and west of the Urals) has a high growth potential - as development is predicated on growth in the natural resources sector. These projects have been prioritised by the government.

  • With regards to metros, new PPP legislation will...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Infrastructure SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2012-2017)
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2018-2023)
11
Industry Forecast Scenario
12
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
19
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2012-2017)
19
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2018-2023)
20
Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview
21
Harsh Climate
25
Major Projects Table - Transport
28
Table: Key Projects Database - Transport
28
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
35
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Russia 2012-2017)
35
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Russia 2018-2023)
36
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
37
Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
42
Table: Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
42
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook and Overview
48
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Russia 2012-2017)
48
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Russia 2018-2023)
48
Residential/Non-Residential Construction Outlook and Overview
48
New Policies
51
The Consumer Story
53
Go East
54
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Key Projects
55
Table: Residential / Non-Residential Key Projects
55
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
59
Russia - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
59
Russia Risk/Reward Ratings
59
Rewards
59
Risks
59
Central And Eastern Europe - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
60
Limited Access To Funding
65
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk Reward Ratings
65
Market Overview
67
Competitive Landscape
67
Table: Competitive Landscape
67
Company Profile
69
Mostootryad No
69
Global Industry Overview
71
Middle East/North Africa Presents Strongest Investment Profile
71
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Sector-Specific Methodology
78
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
82
Sector-Specific Methodology
83
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
83
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
84

The Russia Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Russia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Russian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Russian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).

Industry Trends

Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:

Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.

Building Materials Overview

The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).

Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways, airports, roads and bridges, ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and water infrastructure).

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc