Business Monitor International


Russia Infrastructure Report

Published 12 November 2014

  • 109 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Infrastructure Report

BMI View:   We forecast 1.2% real growth in Russia's construction industry in 2015 following an estimated contraction of 6.6% in 2014. Our forecast for 2015 is supported by low base effects, strong government support for infrastructure development and robust demand. However, we highlight that EU and US sanctions , following Russia's actions in Ukraine , have severely deteriorated the country's business environment, further deterring foreign investment.

Key Trend And D evelopments

  • Developments have prompted our Country Risk team to revise down our GDP growth forecasts for Russia. Russia's annexation of Crimea and perceived belligerence towards Ukraine throughout Q114 triggered significant rouble volatility and massive private net capital outflows, which at USD50.6bn came close to the outflows for the whole of 2013 (USD59.7bn). The flight of capital, which could have otherwise been deployed to productive investment domestically, has worsened the investment outlook. 

  • Russia's actions in Ukraine have resulted in sanctions from the EU which target loans from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) and the European Investment Bank (EIB). We expect these sanctions will have a significant impact on the Russian government's capacity to fund infrastructure projects. In fact, credit availability has started to decline as reflected in the 'credit availability' component of Russia's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).

  • The government has cancelled two recently awarded projects - Taman Port and Lena Bridge - in order to free resources to fund their investment projects in Crimea's infrastructure. In turn, President Putin directed the government agencies responsible for major construction projects to build a bridge across the Kerch Strait joining Crimea and Russia by end-2018. The Russian government has estimated the bridge will cost USD6.17bn.

  • Infrastructure associated with the export of commodities (pipelines, ports and transport infrastructure...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Infrastructure SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2012-2017)
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2018-2023)
11
Industry Forecast Scenario
12
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
19
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2012-2017)
19
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2018-2023)
21
Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview
22
Harsh Climate
27
Major Projects Table - Transport
29
Table: Key Projects Database - Transport
29
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
36
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Russia 2012-2017)
36
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Russia 2018-2023)
37
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
38
Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
44
Table: Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
44
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook and Overview
51
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Russia 2012-2017)
51
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Russia 2018-2023)
51
Residential/Non-Residential Construction Outlook and Overview
51
New Policies
54
The Consumer Story
57
Go East
58
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Key Projects
59
Table: Residential / Non-Residential Key Projects
59
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
62
Russia - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
62
Russia Risk/Reward Ratings
62
Rewards
62
Risks
63
Central And Eastern Europe - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
64
Limited Access To Funding
68
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk Reward Ratings
69
Market Overview
71
Competitive Landscape
71
Table: Competitive Landscape
71
Company Profile
73
Mostootryad No
73
Global Industry Overview
75
Global Infrastructure Overview
75
Methodology
81
Industry Forecast Methodology
81
Sector-Specific Methodology
82
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
86
Sector-Specific Methodology
87
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
87
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
88

The Russia Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Russia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Russian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Russian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).

Industry Trends

Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:

Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.

Building Materials Overview

The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).

Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways, airports, roads and bridges, ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and water infrastructure).

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc