Business Monitor International


Russia Infrastructure Report

Published 29 April 2014

  • 109 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Infrastructure Report

BMI View: We are maintaining our bearish construction industry view for Russia in 2014, forecasting -0.5% real growth for the year. We estimate that the industry entered a period of contraction in 2013 at -1% and we only expect the industry to emerge from this downturn in 2015. The large investments made surrounding sporting events have so far failed to stimulate growth in the sector. In addition, private investment has continued to weaken as a result of endemic corruption, inefficient bureaucracy, and lack of investor guarantees. This poor business environment is exacerbated by stubbornly high inflati on and slow economic growth.

Key developments in the sector:

  • Recent developments have prompted our Country Risk team to revise further down our already below-consensus growth forecasts for Russia. Russian perceived belligerence towards neighbouring Ukraine and concerns over military escalation have spurred rapid capital flight and shattered investor confidence in Russia. Investors are likely to remain wary of further escalation in the tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine that might result in a military stand-off and/or substantive sanctions, such as mutual trade restrictions and capital controls.

  • The awarding of the long-awaited Public-Private Partnership (PPP) for the Lena bridge project confirms our view that private interest in Russia's PPP market is likely to stem mainly from Russian companies. In addition, this USD1.7bn project presents a considerable upside to our construction industry forecast for the country.

  • In March 2014, 10 consortiums expressed interest in the Moscow-Kazan high-speed railway, which was presented to potential investors in Moscow. A number of global firms including French, Spanish and Italian companies, expressed interest in the project.

  • With regards to metros, new PPP legislation, expected to be approved by Q314, will open the door for the private sector to participate in rail construction and the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Infrastructure SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2012-2017)
10
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2018-2023)
11
Industry Forecast Scenario
12
Transport Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
19
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2012-2017)
19
Table: Transport Infrastructure Industry Data (Russia 2018-2023)
20
Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview
21
Harsh Climate
25
Major Projects Table - Transport
28
Table: Key Projects Database - Transport
28
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure - Outlook And Overview
35
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Russia 2012-2017)
35
Table: Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Data (Russia 2018-2023)
36
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview
37
Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
42
Table: Major Projects Table - Energy & Utilities
42
Residential/Non-Residential Building - Outlook and Overview
48
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Russia 2012-2017)
48
Table: Residential and Non-Residential Building Industry Data (Russia 2018-2023)
48
Residential/Non-Residential Construction Outlook and Overview
48
New Policies
51
The Consumer Story
53
Go East
54
Major Projects Table - Residential/Non-Residential Key Projects
55
Table: Residential / Non-Residential Key Projects
55
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
59
Russia - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
59
Russia Risk/Reward Ratings
59
Rewards
59
Risks
59
Central And Eastern Europe - Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings
60
Limited Access To Funding
65
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk Reward Ratings
65
Market Overview
67
Competitive Landscape
67
Table: Competitive Landscape
67
Company Profile
69
Mostootryad No
69
Global Industry Overview
71
Middle East/North Africa Presents Strongest Investment Profile
71
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Sector-Specific Methodology
78
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
82
Sector-Specific Methodology
83
Table: Infrastructure Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
83
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
84

The Russia Infrastructure Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and forecasts covering public procurement and spending on all major infrastructure and construction projects, including transportation and logistics by land, sea and air; power plants and utilities, and commercial construction and property development. The report analyses the impact of regulatory changes and the macroeconomic outlook and features competitive intelligence on contractors and suppliers.

BMI's Russia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Russian infrastructure and construction industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent infrastructure industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Russian infrastructure market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian infrastructure sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering infrastructure and construction, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

These are broken down into Construction (social, commercial and residential), Transport (roads, railways, ports, airports etc), and Energy & Utilities (powerplants, renewable projects, pipelines and so on).

Industry Trends

Analysis of latest projects across the infrastructure sector (covering the transport, utilities and commercial construction sub-sectors) - including:

Market Overview:Analysis of the key elements driving developments, including evaluations of current capacity and future requirements.

Building Materials Overview

The building materials overview provides industry trend analysis on the global and regional demands for building materials and the impact of this on the emerging and developed markets.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Infrastructure Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (construction companies, suppliers and partners) in the regional infrastructure market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data point.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the infrastructure and construction sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry & Economic Forecasts

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

Construction: Industry value (US$bn); contribution to GDP (%); employment (`000); real growth (%).

Infrastructure: Value (US$bn); contribution to construction industry (%); real growth (%) of transport infrastructure (broken down by railways, airports, roads and bridges, ports and harbours) and energy and utilities (broken down by power plants and transmission grids, oil and gas pipelines, and water infrastructure).

Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc