BMI View: T he outlook for Russian IT market spending growth weakened considerably in 2014 as a consequence of sanctions, which resulted in rouble depreciation and undermined domestic confidence levels. Meanwhile, another area where political factors are contributing to uncertainty is regulation of the internet , which could also result in the industry losing its lustre. Our short-term outlook is weaker following our macroeconomic and IT forecast downgrades , however our core view is for an easing of tensions over the medium term, which will allow the Russian economy and IT market to return to a stronger growth trajectory . Pressure on retail hardware sales as a result of competition from low-cost tablets, meaning value growth will fail to keep pace with unit growth over the medium term.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: RUB438.3bn in 2013 to RUB444.3bn in 2014, +1.4% in local currency terms. Hardware is forecast to be the underperforming market segment in 2014, as the shift in consumption to lower cost tablets compounds the slowdown from economic sanctions.
Software Sales: RUB167.9bn in 2013 to RUB173.4bn in 2014, +3.3% in local currency terms. Upgrades from XP after Microsoft withdrew support in April 2014 will add to demand from the modernisation initiatives of Russian enterprises as they become more integrated in global markets and supply chains.
IT Services Sales: RUB241.6bn in 2013 to RUB253.5bn in 2014, +4.9% in local currency terms. Cloud computing demand is increasing rapidly as awareness levels and infrastructure quality improves, although new regulations requiring domestic data storage could present downside.
Key Trends And Developments
The Russian IT market has solid medium term prospects; however in the short-term it is once again political factors that dominate the outlook. The extensive sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and Europe as a result of the disagreement over Ukraine are expected to have a negative...
The Russia Information Technology Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering personal computers and software; semi-conductors, memory chips, integrated circuits and general components; the internet and IT solutions. It analyses analyses regulatory changes (licensing, customs and intellectual property protection) and competitive landscapes comparing IT companies by products, sales, market share, investments, projects and expansion strategies.
BMI's Russia Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, IT associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the IT industry in Russia.
- Benchmark BMI's independent IT Industry forecasts for Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Russian IT market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Russia's IT sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering IT, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Cross-border analysis of regional markets, commenting on IT penetration (PC and internet) and market growth drivers (IT market size and IT market compound growth).
Country Market Overview
Structure, size and value of the industry sectors including hardware, software and services; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments and government authority.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
IT Sector: IT industry value (US$bn); IT sector contribution to GDP (%); value of hardware, software and services industry (US$mn); PC, peripherals and software imports and exports (US$mn); PC, peripherals and software sales (US$mn); number of PCs (`000); PCs/100 inhabitants; internet users (`000); internet users per 100 inhabitants; broadband subscribers (`000); broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants.
Economy: Economic growth (%); nominal GDP (US$bn); unemployment (%); interest rates (%); exchange rate (against US$).
BMI Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators to end-2018 including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Full analysis of the competitive landscape within the hardware, software and services sectors.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.