Business Monitor International


Russia Autos Report

Published 28 November 2014

  • 65 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Autos Report

BMI View:   Despite the launching of a new car scrappage scheme over Q314, which has started to slow the rate of falling new vehicle sales year-on-year ,   BMI maintains its bearish view of Russian auto sales for 2014 and 2015 .  

We believe that the scrappage scheme will yield unimpressive results owing to our downbeat private consumption outlook over 2014/2015. Private consumption will remain subdued at 2.8% in 2014 and 3.0% in 2015; far below the 5.5% and 6.3% growth seen in 2010 and 2011. In contrast to the accelerating growth in private sector lending from May 2010 to the end of 2011, credit growth has been slowing since H212 and is set to continue along this trend. As EU sanctions force Russian banks to tighten lending, growth in loans to businesses and private households will fall further, dampening consumer demand for big-ticket items including cars. Furthermore, we expect real wages to decline over the coming quarters owing to the depreciation of the rouble adding to import prices and the government's continued fiscal consolidation agenda which involves the reduction of pensions and public sector wages.

Secondly, the recent scrappage announcement offers fewer incentives than previously. Whereas the previous scrappage scheme was accompanied by a programme of subsidised credit provision for car buyers, the government's recent proposal is solely focused on scrappage. Given the worsening credit conditions over 2014 and 2015, subsidising the final price of the car will become less important to consumers than affordable loans. On top of this, the RUB40,000 discount in price offered by the new scheme is 20% less than the RUB50,000 offered in 2010/2011 rendering it less attractive than before. Thus, we believe this smaller reduction in the price tags of cars will not be enough to woo consumers worried about paying back higher interest car loans with their falling real wages.

That said, the most recent sales data (for October 2014) show that the scrappage...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2018)
15
Sales
16
Production
19
Trade
22
Passenger Vehicles
23
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2018)
23
Table: Russia - Top 10 Best-Selling Brands, 2013
24
Table: Russia - Top 10 Best-Selling Brands, 4M14
25
Commercial Vehicles
27
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2018)
27
Suppliers
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
36
Table: Russia - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Table: Europe Industry Risk Rewards Ratings Table
45
Company Profile
46
Company Monitor- Honda Europe
46
AvtoVaz
48
Ford Motor
52
General Motors Company
55
Regional Overview
58
Global Industry Overview
61
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
61
European Growth Gathers Momentum
61
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
63
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
64
Demographic Forecast
67
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
68
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
69
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
70
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
70
Methodology
71
Industry Forecasts
71
Sector-Specific Methodology
72
Sources
72
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
73
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
74

The Russia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Russia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Russia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Russian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc