Business Monitor International


Russia Autos Report

Published 03 March 2014

  • 65 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Autos Report

BMI View: BMI remains bearish on the near-term outlook for domestic vehicle sales and production in Russia. A combination of sluggish demand for new cars, and a deteriorating economic backdrop, means that we continue to target declines in both sales and production over 2014 .

Light vehicle sales in Russia declined by 6.4% in 2013, to 2,834,753 units, according to figures from the Association of European Businesses (AEB). BMI had long maintained that 2013 would see a slowdown from 2012 levels, when light vehicle sales in the country had increased by 11%. Despite strong annual sales growth in the early part of 2012, autos sales moderated on the back of subdued private consumption in the second half of the year. We maintained that such growth in the segment was on the back of an unsustainable rise in consumer sentiment, fuelled by cheap credit, which was likely to unwind over the course of the year. This played out, and these dynamics continued to impact sales in 2013.

We believe this erosion of private consumption will continue as unemployment creeps upward, real wages dip, and access to credit slows. Furthermore, the ongoing weakness in the rouble will serve to make imported autos more expensive in local currency terms. These dynamics have partly informed our bearish sales forecast of a 3% decline in the passenger car segment and a 2.4% drop in LCV sales in 2014. Looking at early trends for 2014, light vehicle sales in Russia declined by a further 5.8% y-o-y in January, to 152,662 units.

A deteriorating sales outlook is also leading to a negative near-term stance towards Russian auto production. Indicative of the worsening outlook for domestic auto production, in January 2014, leading domestic player AvtoVAZ announced that it is to cut 7,500 jobs, some 11% of its workforce, in an attempt to revise its business and restore profitability amid declining sales volumes and operating weakness in its domestic market.

AvtoVAZ's partner, the Renault-Nissan...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Sales
14
Table: Russia Autos Sales, 2011-2018
14
Production
17
Table: Russia Autos Production, 2011-2018
17
Trade
21
Table: Russia Autos Trade, 2011-2018
21
Passenger Vehicles
23
Table: Russia - Top 10 Best-Selling Brands, 2013
23
Commercial Vehicles
25
Suppliers
29
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Table: Russia - Economic Activity
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Table: Europe Risk Rewards Rating
40
Company Profile
42
Global Company Strategy
42
AvtoVaz
45
Ford Motor
49
General Motors Company
52
Regional Overview
55
Global Industry Overview
57
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
57
Europe On Road To Recovery
57
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
59
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
61
Demographic Forecast
64
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
65
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
66
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
67
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
67
Methodology
68
Industry Forecasts
68
Sector-Specific Methodology
69
Sources
69
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
70
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
71

The Russia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Russia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Russia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Russian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc