Business Monitor International


Russia Autos Report

Published 10 September 2014

  • 65 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Autos Report

BMI View: This quarter, BMI has revised down its forecasts for the Russian auto sector. We now anticipate a 9% drop in the passenger car segment, from a 5% decline previously, and a 9.4% decline in light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales, from 5.4% previously. Accordingly, we expect total light vehicle sales to decline 9.0% in 2014.

Our decision to revise down our forecasts comes against a backdrop of a worsening domestic political and economic situation. On the political side, the ongoing crisis in Ukraine has hit consumer confidence and led to the imposition of economic sanctions by Western nations. This in turn has fed into what was already a fairly bleak economic outlook, with ongoing weakness in private consumption of particular concern to the autos sector.

Over H114, light vehicle sales declined by 7.6% year-on-year (y-o-y), to 1,229,839 units. Looking at July 2014 monthly sales data, Russia saw a 23% annual decline in new vehicle sales, to just 180,767 units, according to data released by the Association of European Businesses (AEB). Leading Russian car manufacturer AvtoVAZ registered a 25% decrease in sales of its Lada cars, to 28,014 vehicles, over the month.

Looking forward, BMI expects to see further erosion in private consumption throughout 2014 as inflation remains elevated, the currency weakens further, unemployment creeps upward, real wages dip, and access to credit slows. These dynamics have weighed on sales over the year to date, as consumers remain reticent over big-ticket purchases such as new cars. Moreover, we expect to see a more pronounced deceleration in private sector spending in the second half of the year, as capital outflows and political uncertainty weigh on fixed investment while elevated inflation erodes consumer purchasing power. These dynamics have informed our bearish light vehicle sales forecast revision for the year. Beyond the current year, BMI remains downbeat, targeting further falls in new vehicle sales over 2015, before...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2018)
15
Sales
16
Production
19
Trade
22
Passenger Vehicles
23
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2018)
23
Table: Russia - Top 10 Best-Selling Brands, 2013
24
Table: Russia - Top 10 Best-Selling Brands, 4M14
25
Commercial Vehicles
27
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Russia 2012-2018)
27
Suppliers
32
Macroeconomic Forecasts
36
Table: Russia - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Table: Europe Industry Risk Rewards Ratings Table
45
Company Profile
46
Company Monitor- Honda Europe
46
AvtoVaz
48
Ford Motor
52
General Motors Company
55
Regional Overview
58
Global Industry Overview
61
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
61
European Growth Gathers Momentum
61
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
63
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
64
Demographic Forecast
67
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
68
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
69
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
70
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
70
Methodology
71
Industry Forecasts
71
Sector-Specific Methodology
72
Sources
72
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
73
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
74

The Russia Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Russia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Russia.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Russia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Russian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Russian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Russia.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc