Business Monitor International


Russia Agribusiness Report

Published 22 January 2015

  • 104 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Agribusiness Report

We have considerably downgraded our outlook for medium-term growth across the general Russian agricultural sector. A currency crisis leading to a severe deterioration in the fiscal situation of the Russian government will result in lower subsidies to the developing dairy and livestock industries. As such, we have revised down our outlook for both out to 2018/19. That said, the country's ban on agricultural imports from certain countries will provide a boon to production over the coming year, as domestic producers take advantage of the lack of competitive imports. We believe that grains production will post positive growth over the coming years, though will decline in 2015/16 owing to poor weather over the planting season.

On August 7 2014, Russia introduced a one-year ban on imports of certain agricultural products from select countries. We outline the major implications of the trade sanctions below:

  • Multilateral food trade will, generally speaking, be relatively unaffected.

  • The US poultry and Norwegian fish sectors will be the biggest losers.

  • The Brazilian meat sector and Belarus's agricultural industry will be the main beneficiaries.

  • The import ban is likely to marginally increase Russian food price inflation, which will provide added impetus for Russia's central bank to raise interest rates in the coming months.

  • The ban adds downside price pressure to world grain markets.

Russia banned imports of the following agricultural products from the US, EU, Canada, Australia and Norway:

  • Beef

  • Pork

  • Poultry

  • Fish

  • Milk and dairy products

  • Vegetables

  • Fruit and nuts

  • Prepared meat

  • Finished food products

In the table below, we outline the major exporters of these products to Russia, and give our opinion on the countries that stand to gain and lose the most as a result of the measure.

Banned Food Products & Implications
Product Imports As % Of Russia Consumption Major Exporters Major Losers Major Beneficiaries
Beef 42.7%

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Banned Food Products & Implications
8
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Rice Outlook
13
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Russia 2012-2018)
13
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
15
Grains Outlook
17
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
18
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
18
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
18
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
21
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
21
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
21
Dairy Outlook
23
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
24
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
24
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
24
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
26
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
26
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
27
Livestock Outlook
28
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
29
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
29
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
30
Table: Russia - Beef, Pork & Poultry Imports
31
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
32
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
33
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
33
Featured Analysis
35
Limited Overall Impact From Import Ban
35
Table: Banned Food Products & Implications
36
Commodities Forecast
40
Monthly Softs Strategy
40
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
47
Monthly Grains Strategy
48
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
55
Upstream Analysis
56
Europe GM Outlook
56
Europe Machinery Outlook
62
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
68
Downstream Analysis
73
Food
73
Food Consumption
73
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2011-2018)
74
Dairy
74
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
74
Snack Foods
75
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
75
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Russia 2013-2018)
76
Drink
77
Alcoholic Drinks
77
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
78
Soft Drinks
79
Table: Soft Drinks Sales, Production & Trade (Russia 2013-2018)
80
Hot Drinks
82
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
83
Mass Grocery Retail
84
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
85
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
85
Regional Overview
86
Regional Overview- Europe
86
Table: Russia - Banned Food Products & Implications
86
Competitive Landscape
91
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
91
Demographic Forecast
92
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
93
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
94
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
95
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
95
Methodology
96
Industry Forecast Methodology
96
Sector-Specific Methodology
97

The Russia Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Russia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats within the wider agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market’s agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2019 for the consumption, production and trade of key commodities.

  • Consumption Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.
  • Production Forecasts: Examine the trends influencing BMI’s production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.
  • Trade Forecasts: Accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country’s trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.
  • BMI’s Forecasts: Accompanied by a risks-to-outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI’s Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for eight agricultural commodities based on globally recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI’s daily analysis service. These can include: long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports; our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country; our analysis of fertilizer production; as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events.

Competitive Landscape

The reports contain information on prominent companies operating in each market.

Key Commodities Covered By The Agribusiness Market

Reports Include: Grains, Dairy, Livestock, Rice, Sugar, Palm Oil, Edible Oils, Coffee, Cocoa, Cotton, Soybean

Please note – not all reports cover all commodities.

Sources

The Agribusiness reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc