Business Monitor International


Russia Agribusiness Report

Published 28 October 2014

  • 113 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Agribusiness Report

BMI View:   We hold a very positive outlook regarding growth in the Russian agricultural sector and see tremendous opportunities in the grains and dairy segments in particular. We also believe the country's livestock sector will post strong production growth, despite dominance of the market by domestic players and the high barriers to entry which could limit investment and productivity gains in the medium term. Much of the growth across the country's agricultural sphere can be attributed to significant government investment, aimed to increase self-sufficiency and exports in various products.

On August 7, Russia introduced a one-year ban on imports of certain agricultural products from select countries. We outline the major implications of the trade sanctions below:

  • Multilateral food trade will, generally speaking, be relatively unaffected.

  • The US poultry and Norwegian fish sectors will be the biggest losers.

  • The Brazilian meat sector and Belarus's agricultural industry will be the main beneficiaries.

  • The import ban is likely to marginally increase Russian food price inflation, which will provide added impetus for Russia's central bank to raise interest rates in the coming months.

  • The ban adds downside price pressure to world grain markets.

In retaliation to trade sanctions imposed by the US and EU, on August 7 Russia introduced a one-year ban on imports of certain agricultural products from select countries. Russia will ban imports of the following agricultural products from the US, EU, Canada, Australia and Norway:

  • Beef

  • Pork

  • Poultry

  • Fish

  • Milk and dairy products

  • Vegetables

  • Fruit and nuts

  • Prepared meat

  • Finished food products

In the table below, we outline the major exporters of these products to Russia, and give our opinion on the countries that stand to gain and lose the most as a result of the measure.

Banned Food Products & Implications
Product Imports As % Of Russia Consumption Major Exporters Major Losers ...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Rice Outlook
12
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Russia 2011-2018)
12
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
13
Grains Outlook
15
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
16
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
16
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
16
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
19
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
20
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
20
Dairy Outlook
21
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
22
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
22
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
22
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
24
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
24
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
25
Livestock Outlook
26
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
27
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
27
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Russia 2013-2018)
28
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
31
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
31
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Russia 2008-2013)
31
Commodities Forecast
33
Monthly Grains Strategy
33
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
41
Monthly Softs Strategy
41
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
50
Upstream Analysis
51
Europe GM Outlook
51
Europe Machinery Outlook
58
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
63
Downstream Analysis
70
Food
70
Food Consumption
70
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2011-2018)
71
Dairy
71
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
71
Snack Foods
72
Table: Sweet Biscuits Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
72
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Russia 2013-2018)
73
Drink
74
Alcoholic Drinks
74
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
75
Soft Drinks
76
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
78
Hot Drinks
79
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
80
Mass Grocery Retail
81
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Russia 2013-2018)
82
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
82
Regional Overview
83
Competitive Landscape
89
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
89
Demographic Forecast
90
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
91
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
92
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
93
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
93
Methodology
94
Industry Forecast Methodology
94
Sector-Specific Methodology
95

The Russia Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Russia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Russia.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Russia Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc