Business Monitor International


Russia Agribusiness Report

Published 28 April 2014

  • 113 pages
 
$1,295.00
Russia Agribusiness Report

BMI View:   We are very positive about growth potential in the Russian agricultural sector and see tremendous opportunities in the grains and dairy segments in particular . We view the livestock sector positively as well , even though the dominance of the market by domestic players and the high barriers to entry could limit investment and productivity gains in the medium term. Government investment into the dairy and livestock sectors will aid domestic production out to the end of our forecast period in 2018.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2010-2018, % of total)

Key Developments

  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18:  57.3% to 59.3mn tonnes. Yield gains and better access to export markets in Asia are expected to result in increased wheat production after the steep decline it production seen in 2013.

  • Cheese consumption growth to 2018:  33.6% to 1.1mn tonnes. A shift from milk to more value-added products such as cheese will come from rising incomes and an ageing population in the country. 

  • Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 18.8% to 3.6mn tonnes. This will come on the back of strong domestic demand and government initiatives to ensure a domestic production surplus. Specifically, the government is implementing programmes to improve the country's slaughter and processing capabilities.

  • 2014 real GDP growth:  1.0% (down from 1.3% in 2014; forecast to average 2.0% over 2013-2018).

  • Consumer price inflation:  6.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) on average in 2014 (down from 6.8% y-o-y on average in 2013).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 4.6% y-o-y to USD96.1bn in 2013/14, forecast to grow on average 3.2% annually between 2013/14 and 2017/18.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Rice Outlook
13
Table: Russia Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
13
Table: Russia Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
14
Grains Outlook
16
Table: Russia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
17
Table: Russia Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
17
Table: Russia Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
17
Table: Russia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Table: Russia Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Table: Russia Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
23
Dairy Outlook
24
Table: Russia Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
25
Table: Russia Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
25
Table: Russia Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
25
Table: Russia Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
27
Table: Russia Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
28
Table: Russia Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
28
Livestock Outlook
29
Table: Russia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
30
Table: Russia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
30
Table: Russia Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
30
Table: Russia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
36
Table: Russia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
36
Table: Russia Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
36
Commodities Forecast
38
Monthly Grains Update
38
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
46
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
47
Monthly Softs Update
48
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
58
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
59
Upstream Analysis
60
Europe Machinery Outlook
60
Table: Deere & Company - Agriculture & Turf Sales Growth Forecasts By Region
66
Europe GM Outlook
67
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
72
Downstream Analysis
79
Food
79
Food Consumption
79
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
79
Dairy
80
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
80
Snack Foods
85
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
85
Drink
86
Alcoholic Drinks
86
Table: Beer Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
87
Table: Wine Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
88
Soft Drinks
89
Table: Fruit Juice Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
90
Table: Carbonates Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
91
Table: Bottled Water Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
92
Hot Drinks
93
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
93
Mass Grocery Retail
95
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
96
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
97
Regional Overview
98
Competitive Landscape
105
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
105
Demographic Forecast
106
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
107
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
108
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
109
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
109
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Sector-Specific Methodology
111

The Russia Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Russia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

Executive Summary

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Russia.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2017 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Russia Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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