Business Monitor International


Russia Agribusiness Report

Published 27 January 2014

  • 113 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Russia Agribusiness Report

BMI View: We are very positive about growth potential in the Russian agricultural sector and see tremendous opportunities in the grains and dairy segments in particular . We view the livestock sector positively as well , even though the dominance of the market by domestic players and the high barriers to entry could limit investment and productivity gains in the medium term. WTO entry has not triggered major chang es in government support to the sector , but we expect a small reduction in the overall budget allocated to the sector.

Grains And Dairy The Main Commodities
Russia - BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

Key Developments

  • Wheat production growth to 2017/18: 67.9% to 63.5mn tonnes. Yield gains and better access to export markets in Asia are expected to result in increased wheat production.

  • Milk consumption growth to 2018: 0.3% to 11.2mn tonnes. This slight increase in consumption will most likely be aided by increased interest in coffee, as milk is a complementary good. Consumption of premium coffee as a niche but growing segment is demonstrated by the rapid growth of domestic coffee house chains.

  • Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 70.2% to 5.1mn tonnes. This will come on the back of strong domestic demand and government initiatives to ensure a domestic production surplus. Specifically, the government is implementing programmes to improve the country's slaughter and processing capabilities.

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 2.1% (up from 1.4% in 2013; predicted to average 2.6% over 2013-2018).

  • Consumer price inflation: 5.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) on average in 2014 (down from 6.8% y-o-y on average in 2013).

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 8.2% y-o-y to US$111.1bn in 2013/14, forecast to grow on average 4.5% annually between 2012/13 and 2017/18.

Key Revisions To Forecasts:

  • Wheat: 2013/14 production revised up to 54.4mn tonnes (from 53.0mn tonnes previously) in line with the most recent estimates.

  • Corn: 2013/14...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Rice Outlook
13
Table: Russia Rice Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
13
Table: Russia Rice Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
15
Grains Outlook
16
Table: Russia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
17
Table: Russia Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
17
Table: Russia Barley Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
17
Table: Russia Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
22
Table: Russia Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
22
Table: Russia Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
22
Dairy Outlook
23
Table: Russia Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
24
Table: Russia Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
24
Table: Russia Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
24
Table: Russia Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
26
Table: Russia Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
27
Table: Russia Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
27
Livestock Outlook
28
Table: Russia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
29
Table: Russia Pork Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
29
Table: Russia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
29
Table: Russia Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
34
Table: Russia Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
34
Table: Russia Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
34
Featured Analysis
36
Cargill To Benefit From Strategic Involvement in Black Sea Logistics
36
Commodities Forecast
39
Monthly Grains Update
39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
47
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
48
Monthly Softs Update
49
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
57
Table: Bmi Commodities Strategy
58
Upstream Analysis
59
Europe Machinery Outlook
59
Table: Deere & Company - Agriculture & Turf Sales Growth Forecasts By Region
65
Europe GM Outlook
65
Europe Fertiliser Outlook
71
Downstream Analysis
78
Food
78
Food Consumption
78
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
79
Fish
79
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
79
Dairy
82
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
82
Snack Foods
88
Table: Snack Foods Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
88
Drink
89
Alcoholic Drinks
89
Table: Beer Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
90
Table: Wine Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
91
Soft Drinks
91
Table: Fruit Juice Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
92
Table: Carbonates Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
93
Table: Bottled Water Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
95
Hot Drinks
96
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
96
Mass Grocery Retail
97
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017
97
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
99
Regional Overview
100
Regional Overview - Europe
100
Table: EU Farm Size Statistics In 2007
103
Competitive Landscape
106
Table: Main Agribusiness Companies
106
Demographic Forecast
107
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
108
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
109
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
110
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
110
Methodology
111
Industry Forecast Methodology
111
Sector-Specific Methodology
112

The Russia Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Russia Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

Executive Summary

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Russia.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2017 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Russia Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc