BMI View: Despite having one of the lowest mobile market penetrations in the region, Romanian market sustained significant losses in 2014. BMI believes this to be a result of cautionary consumer habits during a period of economic weakness as well as discounting inactive subscribers. However, as GDP per capita will rebound as of 2015, Romanian telecommunications sector will recover in lock-step. The medium-term outlook is mixed in Romania, with continued price competition and economic challenges posing downside rise. However, rising smartphone penetration offers upside via the development of mobile data and value-added services such as mobile payment services. In the wireline sector we should see competition increase between pay-TV operators.
According to the latest data available Romanian mobile market contracted to 26.795mn end of Q314, bringing the total subscriber losses over the first nine months of 2014 to 849,000The April 2014 cuts to mobile termination rates resulted in a faster rate of decline in operator reported ARPU in Q214, resulting in a minor downgrade to our forecast.
We made a small adjustment to our outlook for broadband subscription growth in Romania to reflect the negative impact of the 1.5% tax introduced on the construction of specialised equipment.
Key Trends And Developments
Incumbent operator Romtelecom has finalised its rebranding. Cosmote Romania was renamed Telekom Romania Mobile Communications, and Romtelecom was renamed Telekom Romania Communications. From September 2014, the companies started to offerconverged services under the brand Telekom Romania.
Meanwhile, in July 2014 Romtelecom addressed operational concerns when it contracted Ericsson for a seven-year managed services agreement. Ericsson will manage the respective wireline and wireless networks of Romtelecom and Cosmote in Romania. In August 2014, Telekom Romania chose Chinese vendor ZTE to transform the latter's existing 2G/3G network and...
The Romania Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Romania's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Romania Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Romania.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Romania's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Romania.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Rankings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.