BMI View: During the quarter ending September 2013, the Romanian market registered its largest total of net additions since Q309, posting an increase of 262,000 and reversing a steady trend of decline. BMI does not believe that this was the beginning of a new trend towards growth, and still expect a continuing pattern of slow growth or net losses to be the norm as penetration remains over 126%. The market benefits from a good level of competition between major international players, all of which had launched LTE services as of May 2013. With smartphone penetration reaching 27% of Orange's customers, we expect the development of mobile data and value-added services to become the key driver of growth for these players. The ongoing privatisation of incumbent Romtelecom will see the removal of the government from its stake, benefitting the fixed market with increased investment.
Inactive subscription discounting has been a drag on mobile subscriptions. However, it returned to the first subscription growth since H212 in Q313, following consecutive quarters of subscription loss in H113.
The latest data from ANCOM show that, as of 30 June 2013, there were 8.2 million active broadband mobile internet subscriptions in Romania, up by 11% from end-2012, representing an overall penetration of 41%.
Mobile ARPUs have continued to trend downwards following the brief stabilisation that accompanied the period of inactive subscription discounting. BMI expects price competition and IP substitution will contribute to gradual but ongoing declines in ARPU over the medium term.
Key Trends And Developments
Further rate cuts of around 70% were proposed in August 2013, following a public consultation from ANCOM. Starting from 2014, the maximum tariff for fixed call termination will drop from 0.67 to 0.15 eurocents/minute, while the maximum tariff for mobile call termination will plunge from 3.07 to 0.86 eurocents/minute. Local operators Cosmote, Orange and Vodafone...
The Romania Telecommunications Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent industry forecasts on the future strength of Romania's ICT market, covering the fixed-line, mobile and internet segments and analyses latest regulatory developments and corporate news, including investment activity, mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and partnerships. Leading operators and manufacturers are fully profiled, highlighting their quarterly financial performance, capital expenditure plans and latest contracts.
BMI's Romania Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the telecoms industry in Romania.
- Benchmark BMI's independent telecoms industry forecasts for Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian telecoms market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Romania's telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Romania.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering the ICT, fixed-line, mobile (including 3G), internet and broadband markets.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the wireline and wireless sectors and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Telecommunications Business Environment Ratings provides a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (vendors, operators and suppliers) in the regional telecoms market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
- Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone lines ('000); telephone lines/100 inhabitants.
- Cellular Telephony - Mobile phone subscribers ('000); mobile phone subscribers/100 inhabitants; mobile phone subscribers/100 fixed line subscribers.
- Internet Markets - Internet users ('000); internet users/100 inhabitants; broadband internet subscribers ('000); broadband internet subscribers/100 inhabitants.
Market Data Analysis
Detailed market analysis of the mobile, mobile content, fixed line and internet segments, broken down into:
- Market Data - Analysis of market size, operator shares, dominant trends, competitive landscape and key quarterly data.
- Technology/Service Rollout - Analysis of rollout/adoption of new technology, such as 3G, WiMAX, IPTV, pay-TV, LTE and value-added handset services (gaming, music, video, apps etc.).
- Mobile Content - The latest trends in content and services available and being introduced by mobile operators. Including a timeline of all the latest major mobile content developments.
- Company Database - A comprehensive breakdown of KPIs of the leading mobile operators, including subscriber figures by type (pre-paid and post-paid); 3G subscriber figures; net additions; market share; ARPU; churn rates; minutes of use; voice and non-voice revenue; financial figures (including operating revenues, net profits and EBITDA).
Details of the regulatory bodies and their responsibilities, as well as a special focus on the rules surrounding competition and interconnection. The latest updates in the market's development and regulatory rulings.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.