BMI View: Romania ' s retail market saw strong growth in 2014 as total household spending registered an forecast 5.2% increase. However, BMI anticipates that the spending will decline by approximately 2.0% in 2015 and will not start rebounding by the end of the year. Romania ' s economy is struggling to grow as a result of pessimism demonstrated by both consumers and retailers. The construction sector and foreign direct investment are slowing down and the government is facing challenges to consolidate the budget, which will resonate in the household spending. Despite this, several retail chains are planning expansion in Romania in 2015, including new outlets and shopping malls. BMI expects that this large market will see more openings as we expect the government to fix budget problems, GDP to grow and consumer optimism to recover during 2016-2018.
One of the newest members of the European Union, Romania remains at the bottom of the block in most of the economic indicators. Its GDP per capita is second lowest among 28 member states and 46% lower than the union's average. Nevertheless, it is rapidly approaching the Western European average rising from 43% of EU average in 2007 to 54% in 2013. We expect Romania to sustain healthy growth rates in the long term and to continue approaching the European average. Unlike many Western European and, especially, Southern European countries, Romania has demonstrated impressive growth and development figures during the past 10 years and, as a country of 21.6mn people, remains a promising market for retail.
Romania has a low concentration of the so-called "modern retail" chains, offering good opportunities for the larger retail chains to establish themselves in the market. There are more than 122,000 shops in the country but only 1.1% of them belong to retail chains with the rest being traditional, family-owned small business outlets. There is little doubt that steadily increasing household income will...
The Romania Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.
BMI's Romania Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.
- Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian retail market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Romania through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:
- Headline Retail Forecast: Total household spending (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household), spending by retail sector (food & non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing & footwear, housing & utilities, furnishings & home, health, transport, recreation, education, restaurants & hotels, personal care & insurance (local currency and USDbn, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)
- Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tablewear, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (USDbn, % Growth)
- Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000, % growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – USD5000+, USD10,000+ USD50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)
- Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).
BMI’s Retail Risk Reward Index
BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.
Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care. The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.
This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.
The Retail Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.