Business Monitor International


Romania Retail Report

Published 21 March 2014

  • 63 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Romania Retail Report

BMI View : Romania's retail sector will face a decline over the 2014 period but has strong growth potential for the next five year s . As Romania struggles through a period of decreasing GDP, BMI predict s a decline of 2.07% in the retail sector 2014 and total household spend will drop to US$110bn. There is good news on the horizon , and BMI predict s that Romania will post modest growth in 2015 of 0 .11% ; this growth is predicted to increase to 2.73% in 2016 and over 6% of 2018 and 2018. The projected total spend in retail will reach US$ 128bn in 20 18 and nominal GDP will reach US$ 2 09 bn, creating opportunities for strong return s on investment for those able to capitali s e on the growth.

The Romanian retail market is characterised by strong spending in two key areas, household essentials and recreation and entertainment. The food and beverage sector will continue to take the largest share of wallet in 2014 and will account for 27.3% of total household spend, taking in US$30.1bn in total. The next largest areas of spend will be housing which takes 22.7% of spend (US$25.1bn) and transport which accounts for 14.4% of total spend in the sector. Spending on non-essentials is highest in the furnishing and home, recreation and restaurant sectors. We forecast that furnishing and home will account for 5.2% of total household spend and will reach US$5.8bn in 2014, recreation spend will account for 5.1%, or US$5.7bn and restaurant spend will be 4.9% of total spend and will reach US$5.4bn.

We predict that the total number of households earning US$10,000+ is projected to increase from 38.8% in 2014 to 51.6% in 2018. The net income per household will rise from US$10,315 in 2014 to US$12,418 in 2018. This increase and expansion of wealth across the Romanian population will increase the consumption power of the middle class and creates good opportunity for retailers targeting households coming into the US$10,000+ income bracket.

The food and beverage sector...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Retail SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Retail Sector Spending (%), 2011-2018
15
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending, 2011-2018
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending as a % of GDP, 2011-2018
17
Retail Sector Forecast
18
Food And Drink
19
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending, 2011-2018
20
Clothing And Footwear
21
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
21
Household Goods
22
Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
22
Personal Care
23
Table: Personal Care Spending, 2011-2018
24
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
25
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
26
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
28
Demographic Forecast
29
Table: Total Population, 2011-2018
30
Table: Population: Babies, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Young Children, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Children, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Young People, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: Older Teenagers, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: 21yrs +, 2011-2018
34
Table: Population: Young Adults, 2011-2018
34
Table: Population: Middle Aged, 2011-2018
35
Table: Population: Urban, 2011-2018
35
Macroeconomic Forecast
36
Table: Romania - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Table: Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Romania Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Rewards
42
Risks
42
Market Overview
43
Competitive Landscape
47
Glossary
50
Methodology
57
Industry Forecast Methodology
57
Sources
60
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
60
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
63

The Romania Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Romania Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Romania through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Ratings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Ratings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc