Business Monitor International


Romania Retail Report

Published 21 March 2014

  • 63 pages
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$1,295.00
Romania Retail Report

BMI View : BMI forecast that Romania's retail sector will face a decline over the 2014 period, but growth will return and strengthen throughout the coming 5 year period. Romania continues to struggle through an economic decline, and BMI predicts a decline of 3.4% in total household spending in the retail sector in 2014. We forecast that total spending in the retail sector will reach USD108bn in 2014 and the total GDP will reach USD184bn. Despite these difficulties, there is strong growth predicted with BMI forecasting a 17.9% increase in the total GDP and a 15.79% increase in retail spending over the projection period (2014-2018). Declining population numbers create a rise in per-capita spending power throughout the projection period further strengthening investment opportunities for retailers who are able to offer a modern, middle class retail experience for consumers.

The total spending in the retail sector is projected to increase to USD124bn in 2018 and spending per capita in the retail sector will increase from USD4,968 to USD5,823 between 2014 and 2018.

The Romanian retail market is characterised by strong spending in two key areas, household essentials and recreation and entertainment. The food and beverage sector will continue to take the largest share of wallet in 2014 and will account for 27.4% of total household spend, taking in USD29.4bn in total. Despite its importance in the retail sector, the Food and alcoholic drinks sub-sectors will see the steepest decline in spending during 2014 and both post a decline in spending of 3.7%. Although growth is forecast to return to this spending category, the average annual growth rate of the category will be only 1.9% and is the slowest category growth in the retail sector.

In 2014 the next largest areas of spending will be housing and utilities, which takes 22.7% of spending (USD24.4bn) and transport which accounts for 14.4% of total spend in the sector (USD15.5bn). Spending on non-essentials is...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Retail SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Headline Retail Forecast
14
Table: Total Household Spending, 2011-2018
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending (%), 2011-2018
16
Table: Retail Sector Spending as a % of GDP, 2011-2018
17
Table: Headline Retail Spending 2011-2018
19
Retail Sector Forecast
20
Food And Drink
21
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending, 2011-2018
21
Clothing And Footwear
22
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
23
Household Goods
23
Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
24
Personal Care
25
Table: Personal Care Spending, 2011-2018
25
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
26
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
27
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
29
Demographic Forecast
30
Table: Total Population, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Babies, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Young Children, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: Children, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: Young People, 2011-2018
34
Table: Population: Older Teenagers, 2011-2018
34
Table: Population: 21yrs +, 2011-2018
34
Table: Population: Young Adults, 2011-2018
35
Table: Population: Middle Aged, 2011-2018
35
Table: Population: Urban, 2011-2018
35
Macroeconomic Forecast
36
Economic Analysis
36
Table: Romania - Economic Activity
40
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
41
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Table: Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Industry Risk/ Rewards Ratings
42
Romania Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Rewards
42
Risks
42
Market Overview
44
Competitive Landscape
49
Glossary
52
Methodology
59
Industry Forecast Methodology
59
Sources
62
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
62
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
65

The Romania Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Romania Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Romania through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc