Business Monitor International


Romania Oil & Gas Report

Published 19 May 2014

  • 113 pages
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$1,295.00
Romania Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: ExxonMobil will imminently move forward with its appraisal of the Domino-1 discovery in the Black Sea discovery, signalling a positive turn in Romania's upstream outlook. Further exploration efforts in the Black Sea from international oil companies (IOCs) are providing upside risk to the country's outlook. The growing presence of IOCs is a necessary step to take advantage of Romania's increasingly expensive and technically challenging oil and gas developments. The most prospective areas remain offshore in the Black sea and the onshore basins which could support shale gas . Chevron is restarting shale gas exploration after suspending operations since October 2013 due to protests .

The main trends and developments for Romania's oil and gas sector include:

  • Chevron restarted its shale gas exploration efforts in Romania after unexpectedly intense protests caused the company to suspend work in October 2013. From May 2014, the company will conduct a 90-day drilling programme targeting shale formations at the Pungesti site. Chevron currently has authorisation to drill at two sites in Vaslui.

  • Even though concerns of gas supply disruptions due to Russia's actions in Ukraine have heightened the energy security issues, there continues to be a strong backlash against shale gas drilling in Romania. While the government continues to support shale gas exploration, organised protests are stifling efforts to drilling.

  • Interest in the potential of the Black Sea remains strong. ExxonMobil and OMV Petrom have completed a 3-D seismic survey of the 6,000 square kilometre (sq km) Neptune Block, including the Domino-1 discovery. The Ocean Endeavor semi-submersible has been leased to carry out appraisal drilling in Q1 2014. If commerciality is proven at Domino-1, production is unlikely to begin until 2018 at the earliest.

  • MOL subsidiary Panfora Oil & Gas is stepping up its exploration efforts in Western Romania. Over 2014, the company will be conducting...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Romania Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Romania Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Romania Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Romania Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
15
Gas Supply And Demand
18
Table: Romania Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
18
Table: Romania Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
19
Refining And Oil Products Trade
22
Table: Romania Refining - Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
22
Table: Romania Refining - Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
23
Risks To Outlook
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
26
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
27
Russia: Large Resource Base, But Growing Technical Challenges
30
Regional Minnows Breaking In
31
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
32
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
32
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Romania Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Romania Upstream Rating - Overview
36
Romania Upstream Rating - Rewards
36
Romania Upstream Rating - Risks
37
Romania Downstream Rating - Overview
37
Market Overview
38
Romania Energy Market Overview
38
Licensing And Regulation
39
Government Policy
40
Licensing Rounds
41
International Energy Relations
42
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
43
Oil Refineries
43
Table: Refineries In Romania
43
Service Stations
45
Oil Terminals
46
Oil Pipelines
46
LNG Terminals
47
Gas Storage
47
Gas Pipelines
47
Competitive Landscape
49
Competitive Landscape Summary
49
Table: Key Players - Romania Oil And Gas Sector
50
Table: Key Upstream Players
51
Table: Key Downstream Players
51
Company Profile
52
OMV Petrom
52
Romgaz
58
Lukoil
61
Rompetrol
64
Other Summaries
68
Regional Overview
74
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
74
Trade Dynamic To Persist But Growth Moves East
76
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
77
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
79
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
81
South Stream Looking Weak
82
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
82
Shale Gas Showdown
83
Global Industry Overview
86
Global Energy Market Overview
86
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
88
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
89
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
90
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
92
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
92
Appendix
95
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
95
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
95
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
96
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
97
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
98
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
99
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
99
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
100
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
101
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
102
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
102
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
103
Glossary
104
Table: Glossary Of Terms
104
Methodology
106
Industry Forecast Methodology
106
Source
108
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
108
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
110
Table: Weighting
111

The Romania Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Romania including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Romania Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Romanian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Romania to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Romanian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Romania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc