Business Monitor International


Romania Oil & Gas Report

Published 19 February 2014

  • 113 pages
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$1,295.00
Romania Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: ExxonMobil will imminently move forward with its appraisal of the Domino-1 discovery in the Black Sea discovery, signalling a positive turn in Romania's upstream outlook. Further exploration efforts in the Black Sea from international oil companies (IOCs) are providing upside risk to the country's outlook. The growing presence of IOCs is a necessary step to take advantage of Romania's increasingly expensive and technically challenging oil and gas developments. The most prospective areas remain offshore in the Black sea and the onshore basins which could support shale gas, while enhanced oil recovery is also helping to bolster production levels from mature fields. Chevron has taken the lead in exploring for and developing shale gas prospects, though has faced considerable local opposition

The main trends and developments for Romania's oil and gas sector include:

  • While Chevron remains the key company to developing Romania's shale gas resources, developments continue to be disrupted by strong local opposition. The company received a number of licences to prospect for shale gas but was twice stopped from drilling in the Pungesti area. The US major has now suspended exploration work.

  • Due to the significant opposition to shale gas exploration and particularly the application of hydraulic fracturing, local communities are petitioning to hold referendums to ban the practice. If successful, this move could see Chevron prevented from operating in a number of its licence areas.

  • Interest in the potential of the Black Sea remains strong. ExxonMobil and OMV Petrom have completed a 3-D seismic survey of the 6,000 square kilometre (sq km) Neptune Block, including the Domino-1 discovery. The Ocean Endeavor semi-submersible has been leased to carry out appraisal drilling in Q1 2014. If commerciality is proven at Domino-1, production is unlikely to begin until 2018 at the earliest.

  • Petroceltic failed to find commercial volumes of oil or gas at its...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Romania Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Romania Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Romania Oil Production And Net Exports, 2012-2017
14
Table: Romania Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
15
Gas Supply And Demand
17
Table: Romania Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
17
Table: Romania Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
18
Refining And Oil Products Trade
21
Table: Romania Refining - Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
21
Table: Romania Refining - Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
22
Risks To Outlook
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Central And Eastern Europe - Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
25
East Caspian Retains Upstream Ratings Lead
25
Russia: Large Resource Base But Limited Opportunities
27
Regional Minnows Breaking In
29
Table: CEE Upstream Risk/Reward Rating
30
Little Change In Downstream Rankings
30
Table: CEE Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Romania Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Romania Upstream Rating - Overview
34
Romania Upstream Rating - Rewards
34
Romania Upstream Rating - Risks
35
Romania Downstream Rating - Overview
35
Romania Downstream Rating - Rewards
35
Romania Downstream Rating - Risks
35
Market Overview
37
Romania Energy Market Overview
37
Licensing And Regulation
38
Government Policy
38
Licensing Rounds
40
International Energy Relations
41
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
42
Oil Refineries
42
Table: Refineries In Romania
42
Service Stations
45
Oil Terminals
45
Oil Pipelines
45
LNG Terminals
46
Gas Storage
46
Gas Pipelines
46
Competitive Landscape
48
Competitive Landscape Summary
48
Table: Key Players - Romania Oil And Gas Sector
49
Table: Key Upstream Players
49
Table: Key Downstream Players
50
Company Profile
51
OMV Petrom
51
Romgaz
57
Lukoil
60
Rompetrol
63
Other Summaries
66
Regional Overview
72
Central And Eastern Europe Overview
72
A Mutually Dependent Relationship
74
Weaning Off Russian Oil And Gas Proving Difficult
75
Azerbaijan Main Beneficiary Of Eastern Europe's Russian Fatigue
76
Moving From Pipeline To LNG
78
South Stream Looking Weak
79
Black (Sea) Gold Could Provide Relief
79
Shale Gas Showdown
80
Global Industry Overview
83
Appendix
90
Central And Eastern Europe - Regional Appendix
90
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
94
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
95
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
96
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
97
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
98
Romania - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
98
Table: Romania Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2012-2017
98
Table: Romania Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2018-2023
100
Table: Romania Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2012-2017
101
Table: Romania Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2018-2023
102
Table: Romania Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2012-2017
103
Table: Romania Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2018-2023
103
Glossary
105
Table: Glossary Of Terms
105
Methodology
107
Industry Forecast Methodology
107
Source
109
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
109
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
111
Table: Weighting
113

The Romania Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Romania including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Romania Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Romanian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Romania to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Romanian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Romanian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Romania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc