Business Monitor International


Romania Mining Report

Published 19 May 2014

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$1,295.00
Romania Mining Report

BMI View: We expect Romania's mining sector to see only modest growth over the coming years as coal output, which accounts for the majority of the mining sector's value, sees little expansion. Gold production growth will only be marginally more inspiring as weak prices and intense public opposition weigh on the gold industry's growth prospects. Overall, we forecast Romania's mining sector value to grow from USD1.8bn to USD1.9bn from 2014-2018.

Modest Growth Prospects
Romania: Mining Industry Value & Production Growth Forecasts

The outlook for Romania's gold mining sector is less positive than formerly anticipated as the Rosia Montana gold mine, which promised to be the largest of its kind in Europe, will now be shelved indefinitely due to the success of environmental lobbies in blocking the project. In November 2013, a special parliamentary commission rejected a draft bill that would have allowed Canadian firm, Gabriel Resources, to proceed with plans to bring the Rosia Montana gold mine to production.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Gold: Pushing Back The Boom
9
Table: Romania - Key Gold Projects
10
Cartej To Eventually Transform Mining Sector
10
Table: Gold Production Forecast (Romania 2010-2018)
11
Coal: Output To Stagnate
11
Table: Coal Production Forecast (Romania 2010-2018)
13
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
14
Risk/Reward Ratings
14
Kazakhstan On Top; Russia Not Far Behind
15
Table: Mining Risk/Reward Ratings
16
Germany & Ukraine: Key Changers On Last Quarter
16
Weak Commodity Prices Weigh On Rewards Across The Board
17
Regulatory Development
18
Tax Regime
19
Corruption A Major Concern
19
Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Outlook
20
Commodities Forecast
21
Commodity Strategy
21
Iron Ore: Chinese Stimulus Not A Game Changer
21
Steel: Gradual Rationalisation Insufficient To Boost Prices
23
Aluminium: Recent Rally Unlikely To Persist Into H214
24
Copper: Bearish Forecast Appears Well Placed
25
Lead: Picking Up Autos Sector Tailwinds
26
Nickel: Recent Rise To Fall Back In H214
27
Zinc: Potential Test Of Resistance In Coming Weeks
29
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
31
Competitive Landscape
32
Company Profile
34
Mechel
34
Table: Mechel - Financial Data
36
Eldorado Gold
37
Table: Eldorado - Financial Data
39
Regional Overview
41
Europe Overview
41
1
41
2
43
3
45
Table: Europe: Mining Regulatory Outlook
45
4
46
5
47
Global Industry Overview
48
Challenges
48
Table: Mining - Select M&A Deals
52
Cause For Optimism
55
Methodology
62
Industry Forecast Methodology
62
Sources
63
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
64
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
66

The Romania Mining Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s mining and commodity forecasts for metals, minerals and gems, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, exports and values. The report also analyses trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Romania Mining Report provides industry strategists, service companies, company analysts and consultants, government departments, trade associations and regulatory bodies with BMI's independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the mining industry in Romania.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts on Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in this mining market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Romania's mining sector through our reviews of latest mining industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Romania.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity), Key Projects Tables and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering mining reserves, supply, demand and prices, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Mining Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (mining companies and support service providers) in the regional mining market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry rankings products.

Key Projects

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by metal/ore.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Indicators include:

  • Mining Industry: Industry size (US$mn), real growth (%), % of GDP, employment ('000), workforce as % of total workforce, average wage (US$).
  • Output:Production volumes ('000 tonnes, carats etc.) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state, including bauxite, copper, gold, coal, lead, silver, tin, titanium, uranium, zinc etc.
  • Exports: Value of exports (US$mn) for all major metals, minerals, ores and gems mined in each state .
  • Commodity Markets: Global demand, supply, stocks and benchmark prices (US$) for aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, tin, zinc, gold and steel.

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth (%), inflation (%), fiscal balance (% of GDP), trade balance (US$bn), current account (US$bn) and external debt (US$bn).

Competitive Landscape Tables & Analysis

Comparative company analyses and tables detailing by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, market cap/NAV, ownership structure, production and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc