Business Monitor International


Romania Defence & Security Report

Published 23 May 2014

  • 61 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Romania Defence & Security Report

We expect Romania to spend US$2.9bn on defence in 2014. This is an increase on the US$2.7 the defence budget was worth in 2013. In early May 2014, the Romanian government announced that spending increases were necessary as a reaction to the deteriorating security situation in Ukraine. That country has become increasingly unstable since its revolution in Spring 2014 prompted Russia to annex Crimea and covertly support a pro-Moscow uprising in the east of the country.

BMI has given Romania an overall security risk rating of 85 for Q314. The country has a low risk of becoming involved in any major international conflict. It has a similarly low risk from suffering any major terrorist outrage. An equally positive appraisal cannot be given regarding the country's susceptibility, which we continue to judge as comparatively high.

During early April 2014, Romania argued for a more robust NATO presence in the former Warsaw Pact area. The calls followed Russia's participation in the Ukrainian Revolution of Spring 2014 and Moscow's subsequent annexation of Crimea, along with its covert support of pro-Russian groups in eastern Ukraine. Romania is particularly concerned Russia's actions might indicate an increasingly expansionist strategy from Moscow. As of May 2014, NATO has deployed forces to the Baltic and elsewhere in Central Europe to act as a deterrent to any further moves eastwards by Moscow.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Romania Security SWOT
8
Romania Defence & Security SWOT
9
Political SWOT
11
Economic SWOT
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Defence Expenditure
14
Table: Defence Expenditure
14
Armed Forces
15
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated)
16
Defence Trade
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Economic Analysis
18
Table: Romania - Economic Activity
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Europe Security Risk Ratings
23
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
24
Table: Europe State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
25
Romania Security Risk Ratings
26
Market Overview
27
Romania Defence Market Overview
27
Armed Forces
27
Weapons of Mass Destruction
36
Domestic Defence Industries
38
Imports
38
Exports
38
Romania Security Overview
39
Domestic Threats
39
Regional Threats
40
International Threats
41
Company Profile
42
Aerostar
42
Airbus Helicopters Romania
44
IAR SA Brasov
45
MFA Mizil
46
Romaero
47
Regional Overview
48
Europe Security Overview
48
Global Industry Overview
58
Global Political Outlook
58
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Sector-Specific Methodology
65
Sources
66
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
66
Table: Indicators And Weighting
67

The Romania Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Romania Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Romanian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Romanian defence and security market.
  • Tar

    Coverage

    Global and Regional Political Outlooks

    A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

    SWOT Analysis

    Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

    Political Risk Assessment

    Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

    Security Risk Analysis

    BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

    Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

    The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

    Domestic Security Overview

    The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

    BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

    Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

    Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

    Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

    Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

    Company Profiles

    Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

    Domestic Security Overview

    The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc