Business Monitor International


Romania Defence & Security Report

Published 12 August 2014

  • 61 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Romania Defence & Security Report

BMI View:   Romania occupies a strategically important position in Europe. The country is flanked by the former Soviet republics of Ukraine and Moldova. It also borders Hungary to the west, the former Yugoslavia to the south east and Bulgaria to the south west. Romania is now a member of NATO. 

We expect Romania to spend USD2.9bn on defence in 2014. This figure will be below the non-binding request of NATO for its members to spend a minimum of 2% of their GDP on defence annually. Romania will spend 1.7% of its GPD on defence in 2014. During 2014 reports stated that Romania may increase its defence spending in coming years as a result of Russia's involvement in Ukraine's civil war. Some members of the Romanian defence community are concerned that Russia could adopt a more regionally assertive stance towards its European neighbours. However, Romania has also pledged to slow its pace of military modernisation in a bid to lower government spending. These two goals appear to be mutually exclusive. For now, we expect Romania to increase its defence spending moderately throughout the remainder of the forecast period up to and including 2018, spending an average of USD3.8bn on defence annually.

Romania maintains three separate armed services; the Army, Navy and Air Force. These are tasked with ensuring the territorial integrity of the country, protecting its air space and its maritime approaches. In addition, they also support out-of-area NATO, European Union and United Nations operations as and when tasked by the government to do so. Between 2001 and 2011, the numerical strength of the Romanian armed forces has averaged 164,100 annually. However, as with many ex-Warsaw Pact nations, the numerical size of the armed forces has declined in recent years as the army, air force and navy have reoriented themselves from a personnel-heavy doctrine to embracing a more technologically-focused doctrine. For example, the numerical strength of the armed forces comprised 178,900...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Romania Security SWOT
8
Romania Defence SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Defence Expenditure
14
Table: Defence Expenditure (Romania 2011-2018)
15
Armed Forces
16
Table: Manpower Available For Military Services (Romania 2011-2018)
16
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Economic Analysis
18
Table: Economic Activity (Romania 2009-2018)
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Europe Security Risk Ratings
24
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
24
Table: Europe State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
25
Romania Security Risk Ratings
26
Market Overview
28
Romania Defence Market Overview
28
Armed Forces
28
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
37
Domestic Defence Industries
39
Imports
39
Exports
39
Romania Security Overview
40
Domestic Threats
40
Regional Threats
41
International Threats
42
Company Profile
44
Aerostar
44
Airbus Helicopters Romania
46
IAR SA Brasov
47
MFA Mizil
48
Romaero
49
Regional Overview
50
Europe Security Overview
50
Global Industry Overview
60
Political Risk Analysis
60
Methodology
65
Industry Forecast Methodology
65
Sector-Specific Methodology
66
Sources
67
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
67
Table: Indicators And Weighting
68

The Romania Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Romania Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Romanian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Romanian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc