Business Monitor International

Romania Defence & Security Report

Published 12 August 2014

  • 61 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
Romania Defence & Security Report

BMI View:   Romania occupies a strategically important position in Europe. The country is flanked by the former Soviet republics of Ukraine and Moldova. It also borders Hungary to the west, the former Yugoslavia to the south east and Bulgaria to the south-west. In addition, Romania is now a member of NATO.

The government of Romania has stated that it plans to increase defence spending during 2014 in light of the ongoing civil war in Ukraine. It is not clear what the increase in defence spending will be used for, and there has been no announcement to this effect from the Romanian government. In recent years, the country has sought to overhaul its military to ensure that it can operate alongside its other NATO allies. These efforts have principally rested on the acquisition and upgrade of advanced command and control systems such as tactical radios and communications links.

Romania has been given an overall security risk rating of 84 for Q414 by BMI. On average, the country scored an overall security risk rating of 94 for the period February 2009 until Q314. We believe Romania has a very low risk of becoming involved in a major international conflict. Similarly, we do not see the country as at a high risk from a major terrorist attack. However, it does have a noticeably higher risk of significant criminal activity.

In July 2014 Romania announced an interest to join the Euro-NATO Joint Jet Pilot Training Programme (ENJJPT), located at Shepphard Air Force Base, Texas, in the US. The ENJJPT initiative involves 11 countries and Romania's interest in it has been piqued by its recent purchase of Lockheed Martin F-16 multirole combat aircraft. In the same month, Romania affirmed its commitment to continue training the Afghan Army beyond 2014 following the end of NATO's presence in the country in the 2014/15 timeframe.

In May 2014 the US Missile Defence Agency performed a test launch of a Raytheon Standard Missile-3 surface-to-air missile from the Aegis Ashore Missile...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Romania Security SWOT
Romania Defence SWOT
Business Environment
Industry Forecast
Defence Expenditure
Table: Defence Expenditure (Romania 2011-2018)
Armed Forces
Table: Manpower Available For Military Services (Romania 2011-2018)
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Economic Analysis
Table: Economic Activity (Romania 2009-2018)
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Romania Security Risk Ratings
Market Overview
Romania Defence Market Overview
Armed Forces
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Domestic Defence Industries
Romania Security Overview
Domestic Threats
Regional Threats
International Threats
Company Profile
Airbus Helicopters Romania
IAR SA Brasov
MFA Mizil
Regional Overview
Europe Security Overview
Global Industry Overview
Political Risk Analysis
Industry Forecast Methodology
Sector-Specific Methodology
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
Table: Indicators And Weighting

The Romania Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Romania Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Romanian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Romanian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).


Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc