Business Monitor International


Romania Defence & Security Report

Published 23 May 2014

  • 61 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Romania Defence & Security Report

BMI View:   Romania occupies a strategically important position in Europe. The country is flanked by the former Soviet republics of Ukraine and Moldova. It also borders Hungary to the west, the former Yugoslavia to the south east and Bulgaria to the south-west. In addition, Romania is now a member of NATO.

The government of Romania has stated that it plans to increase defence spending during 2014 in light of the ongoing civil war in Ukraine. It is not clear what the increase in defence spending will be used for, and there has been no announcement to this effect from the Romanian government. In recent years, the country has sought to overhaul its military to ensure that it can operate alongside its other NATO allies. These efforts have principally rested on the acquisition and upgrade of advanced command and control systems such as tactical radios and communications links.

Romania has been given an overall security risk rating of 84 for Q414 by BMI. On average, the country scored an overall security risk rating of 94 for the period February 2009 until Q314. We believe Romania has a very low risk of becoming involved in a major international conflict. Similarly, we do not see the country as at a high risk from a major terrorist attack. However, it does have a noticeably higher risk of significant criminal activity.

In July 2014 Romania announced an interest to join the Euro-NATO Joint Jet Pilot Training Programme (ENJJPT), located at Shepphard Air Force Base, Texas, in the US. The ENJJPT initiative involves 11 countries and Romania's interest in it has been piqued by its recent purchase of Lockheed Martin F-16 multirole combat aircraft. In the same month, Romania affirmed its commitment to continue training the Afghan Army beyond 2014 following the end of NATO's presence in the country in the 2014/15 timeframe.

In May 2014 the US Missile Defence Agency performed a test launch of a Raytheon Standard Missile-3 surface-to-air missile from the Aegis Ashore Missile...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Romania Security SWOT
8
Romania Defence & Security SWOT
9
Political SWOT
11
Economic SWOT
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Defence Expenditure
14
Table: Defence Expenditure
14
Armed Forces
15
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated)
16
Defence Trade
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Economic Analysis
18
Table: Romania - Economic Activity
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Europe Security Risk Ratings
23
Table: Europe Regional Security Risk Ratings
24
Table: Europe State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
25
Romania Security Risk Ratings
26
Market Overview
27
Romania Defence Market Overview
27
Armed Forces
27
Weapons of Mass Destruction
36
Domestic Defence Industries
38
Imports
38
Exports
38
Romania Security Overview
39
Domestic Threats
39
Regional Threats
40
International Threats
41
Company Profile
42
Aerostar
42
Airbus Helicopters Romania
44
IAR SA Brasov
45
MFA Mizil
46
Romaero
47
Regional Overview
48
Europe Security Overview
48
Global Industry Overview
58
Global Political Outlook
58
Methodology
64
Industry Forecast Methodology
64
Sector-Specific Methodology
65
Sources
66
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
66
Table: Indicators And Weighting
67

The Romania Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Romania Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Romanian defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Romania to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Romanian defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc