Business Monitor International


Qatar Business Forecast Report

Published 24 September 2014

  • 55 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Qatar Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • Qatar's short-term political risk profile remains among the most stable in the region. Despite enjoying little in the way of democratic freedom, Qataris benefit from massive hydrocarbon wealth which is spread generously across the country's native population and enjoy the highest per capita GDP in the world. A small population - and one without much inclination to protest against the government - will keep the country insulated from large-scale public unrest in the immediate term.

  • The Qatari economy will continue to expand at a rapid pace over the next few years, supported by accommodative fiscal policy - notably infrastructure spending - and strong population increases. The non-hydrocarbons economy will propel growth, with construction activity and the services sector set to remain the dominant performers.

  • We retain our forecast for annual real GDP growth of 5.7% for 2014, but have revised up our projection for 2015 to 6.6% (from 6.1% previously). The new Barzan gas development, which is planned to come on-stream in 2015, will drive a return to growth in the hydrocarbon sector throughout the coming quarters.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Given the economy's heavy reliance on the hydrocarbon sector, a pronounced global economic downturn - if it were to translate into a sustained drop-off in demand for oil and gas - could impact negatively on our forecasts for Qatar's external account position, budget and growth outlook. That said, we highlight that the country's US$115bn sovereign wealth fund - as well as its continuing ability to tap international debt markets - provides the economy with significant bulwarks against these risks.

  • The Qatari government's increasingly assertive foreign policy raises some risks in relation to the outlook for regional political stability. In particular, we highlight the potential for the country's foreign policy to provoke a backlash in the region and the danger that the government could become bogged down in a...

Table of Contents

Executive Summary
5
Core Views
5
Key Risks To Outlook
5
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
7
SWOT Analysis
7
BMI Political Risk Ratings
7
Domestic Politics
8
Slow 'Kafala' Reform To Harm Diversification Ambitions
8
table: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
8
Foreign Policy
9
Support To Sudan Highlights Independent Foreign Policy
9
table: PROPOSED LABOUR LAW REFORMS
9
Long-Term Political Outlook
10
Limited Challenges For The Coming Decade
10
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
13
SWOT Analysis
13
BMI Economic Risk Ratings
13
Economic Activity
14
Growth Forecasts Revised Upwards
14
table: Economic Activity
14
Investment Climate
17
What If Qatar Loses The World Cup-
17
TABLE: MOUNTING PRESSURE FOR A NEW VOTE
17
Fiscal Policy
20
New Budget Continues Focus On Infrastructure
20
table: FISCAL POLICY
21
Monetary Policy
22
Population Growth And Diesel Hike To Fuel H214 Inflation
22
table: Monetary Policy
22
Chapter 3: 10-Year Forecast
25
The Qatari Economy To 2023
25
Solid Long-Term Growth Prospects
25
table: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
25
Chapter 4: Business Environment
27
SWOT Analysis
27
BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
27
Business Environment Outlook
28
Institutions
28
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
28
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
29
Infrastructure
30
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
30
Market Orientation
31
TABLE: ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
31
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
32
Operational Risk
33
TABLE: Top Export Destinations
33
Chapter 5: Key Sectors
35
Freight Transport
35
table: Air Freight
36
table: Maritime Freight
37
Water
38
table: Key Data, Water Industry, Water Extraction
38
table: Water Consumption
39
table: Water Treatment and Wastewater
40
Other Key Sectors
43
table: Oil and Gas Sector Key Indicators
43
table: Pharma Sector Key Indicators
43
table: Infrastructure Sector Key Indicators
43
table: Telecoms Sector Key Indicators
44
table: Food and Drink Sector Key Indicators
44
table: Autos Sector Key Indicators
44
Chapter 6: BMI Global Assumptions
45
Global Outlook
45
Emerging Market Deceleration
45
Table: Global Assumptions
45
Table: Developed States, Real GDP GrowtH, %
46
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
46
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
47

The Qatar Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Qatar and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Qatar's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2018, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Qatar's economic and industry growth through end-2018.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Qatar's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Rankings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Qatar, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Qatar Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Business Environment and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Qatar economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2014-2018?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Qatar through end-2018 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Qatar Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2014 through to end-2018, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Rankings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2018 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Qatar and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Qatar, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Qatar over the next 5-years?

BMI's Qatar country Risk Rankings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Qatar Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Qatar.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Rankings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ankings, rankings and trends for Qatar's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Qatar's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Rankings with SWOT Analysis - Business Environment Risk Rankings for Qatar, benchmarked against rankings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Qatar's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Rankings.

Key Sector Outlook

Which industry sectors in Qatar will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?

BMI's identifies investment opportunities in Qatar's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:

  • Market Overview - Size and value of each industry with developments over 2009-2013, covering major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
  • 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2014-2018, using BMI's proprietary industry modeling technique, which incorporates all key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across, and within, each industry.
  • Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - BMI's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits

  • Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
  • Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express