BMI View: Our forecasts for the Portuguese renewables industry remain unchanged this quarter as our fundamental assumptions of the market continue to be relevant. A clouded economic picture, regulatory uncertainty and difficulties with accessing project funding are factors which will likely hinder the future growth prospects of the industry; limiting the full potential of the sector and sapping investor interest. The well-developed wind sector will continue to dominate the renewables industry, but the growth previously experienced within the segment is set to moderate.
Portugal adopted the E4 Programme (Energy Efficiency and Endogenous Energies) in 2011, which set goals for renewable power generation, in line with the wider EU Directive on renewable energy. The target was set at achieving a 39% share of renewable energy sources for gross electricity consumption by 2010, and a 31% share of renewable energy sources for total energy consumption by 2020. However, Portugal has since upped this target, off of the back of this year's rising renewables usage, and now aims to reach a 45% renewables share in its electricity production by the end of 2013, and a 60% share by 2020.
Overall, wind continues to be the main focus of the non-hydro renewables sector in Portugal, and we have maintained our forecast for the wind sector to contribute over 25% to the country's total electricity capacity by end-2014 - representing roughly 75% of the non-hydro renewables electricity generation.
Key trends and recent developments in Portugal's renewables market include:
Owing to heavy rains and strong winds, Portugal's output from renewable energy (including hydropower) met the country's targets several times during 2013. According to Portuguese grid regulator REN, the country achieved 70% renewables generation for the first three months 2013, and 72% in June alone.
In August 2013, French utility GDF Suez decided to sell 50% of its 3.3GW power and renewable energy portfolio in...
The Portugal Renewables Report researched at source contains Business Monitor International (BMI)'s assessment of the current renewables market in Portugal. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2017 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Portugal, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Portugal, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Portugal Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Portugal renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Portugal to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Portugal renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Portugal, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Ratings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Ratings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Ratings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.