BMI View: Growth in the Portuguese renewable energy market continues to be sluggish, with the country's embattled economy weighing on growth prospects in the power and renewables industries. The wind sector dominates the renewables mix, but only registered capacity additions of under 200MW during 2013. We do not expect growth to pick up markedly as investor sentiment remains low and the renewables project pipeline is limited.
Portugal has been pursuing a green energy agenda since 2001, adopting the E4 Programme (Energy Efficiency and Endogenous Energies) in the same year. This set goals for renewable power generation, in line with the wider EU Directive on renewable energy. The target was set at achieving a 39% share of renewable energy sources for gross electricity consumption by 2010, and a 31% share of renewable energy sources for total energy consumption by 2020. However, Portugal has since upped these targets and now aims to reach a 60% renewables share in its electricity production share by 2020.
Overall, wind continues to be the main focus of the non-hydro renewables sector in Portugal and we expect it to contribute the lion's share to the renewables capacity and generation mix over the next decade. We expect wind capacity to increase by 31% (on the 2013 level) and reach 6.2GW in 2023, which is nearly 82% of the total non-hydro renewables capacity.
Key Trends And Developments
Owing to heavy rains and strong winds, Portugal's output from renewable energy (including hydropower) met the country's targets several times during 2013. According to Portuguese grid regulator REN, the country achieved 70% renewables generation for the first three months of 2013 and 72% in June 2013 alone.
According to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA), Portugal's wind capacity additions over 2013 were just 195MW.
Despite large potential, we expect solar capacity to grow from the estimated 231MW in 2013 to 630MW in 2023 and account for just 2.5% of country's...
The Portugal Renewables Report researched at source contains Business Monitor International (BMI)'s assessment of the current renewables market in Portugal. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2018 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).
The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Portugal, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.
The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Portugal, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.
BMI's Portugal Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Portugal renewables industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Portugal to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Portugal renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Portugal, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.
These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.
Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.
These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Renewables Business Environment Rankings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Rankings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.