Business Monitor International


Poland Shipping Report

Published 19 May 2014

  • 106 pages
 
$1,295.00
Poland Shipping Report

BMI remains fundamentally positive about the Polish economy, although a little below consensus in our growth forecasts. Underpinning this is our view that domestic consumption will remain strong, stimulated by low inflation, rising employment and low interest rates.

Household consumption represents a larger share of the Polish economy - around 60% - than in some of its Central European neighbours (around 50% for Slovakia and the Czech Republic). This gives Poland extra resilience to any headwinds coming from the external environment. That said, we are also positive about the contribution net exports will make to the country's ongoing recovery. This, however, is where we are a little more cautious than the consensus. We see risks that declining Asia demand will feed through into weaker German factory output, in turn dampening demand from Polish supply chains.

For 2014, we are forecasting real GDP growth of 2.8% versus consensus forecasts of 3.2%. Nonetheless, the acceleration in economic activity remains reasonably robust, and domestic and external conditions will remain accommodating. We expect growth to gather pace to 3.1% next year. Poland should achieve average annual growth of 3.3% over the next five years.

We continue to project positive growth for the country's major maritime ports in 2014. After a slow start to the year, the Port of Gdansk, which is seeing ongoing capacity expansion and consolidating its gateway role, is performing dynamically. Gdynia is also expected to see steady growth.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 port of Gdansk tonnage throughput forecast to grow 8.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 32.68mn tonnes. Over the medium term to 2018, we project a 7.7% average annual increase.

  • 2014 port of Gdansk container throughput forecast to grow 12.0% to 1.318mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Over the medium term, we project a 10.7% average annual increase.

  • Port of Gdynia tonnage to increase 9.6% to19.353mn tonnes, with five-year average annual growth...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Shipping
7
Political
8
Economic
9
Business Environment
10
Industry Forecast
11
Port Of Gdansk Throughput
11
Port Of Gdynia Throughput
15
Table: Major Ports Data (Poland 2011-2018)
18
Table: Trade Overview (Poland 2011-2018)
19
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Poland 2011-2018)
20
Table: Top Import Sources, 2004-2012
21
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
22
Market Overview
23
Poland Container Shipping Market Overview
23
Industry Trends And Developments
28
Shipping - Global Industry View
31
Container Demand:
31
Container Supply:
38
Container Rates:
44
Global Company Strategy
48
Maersk Line
48
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
61
CMA CGM
66
Evergreen Line
76
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
83
Macroeconomic Forecasts
90
Risks To Outlook
94
Table: Poland - Economic Activity
94
Demographic Forecast
95
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
96
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
97
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
98
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
98

The Poland Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Poland.

BMI's Poland Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Poland.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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