Business Monitor International


Poland Shipping Report

Published 19 November 2014

  • 106 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Poland Shipping Report

Although we were surprised by the National Bank of Romania (NBR)'s policy rate cut to 3.25% on August 4 (we expected rates to be held at 3.50%), this does not materially change our bullish Romanian leu versus bearish Hungarian forint view. Low inflation (just 0.7% y-o-y in June) is likely to have prompted the cut, even though domestic demand remains strong. Indeed, inflation is above the NBR's 2.5% ±1.0% target when food prices are excluded from inflation calculations and retail sales expanded by a robust 10.3% y-o-y in June.

We withhold from adjusting our interest rate forecasts until a detailed monetary policy statement is released by the bank, but do not expect further cuts or significant leu weakness over the coming months. Indeed, the currency remained unmoved on the back of the cut, and we are up 1.0% in our bullish RON vs bearish HUF view in our asset class strategy tables ( see chart below).

Still Like RON vs HUF
Romania - HUF/RON Exchange Rate

We still believe the RON will strengthen against the HUF over the coming months, due to Romania's more attractive growth outlook and the Hungarian central bank's implicit strategy of weakening the forint ( see 'HUF Won't Benefit From End Of Easing Cycle', July 28). Moreover, we believe the Hungarian government's plan to force the conversion of FX loans into forints at some point in early 2015 will also weigh on the HUF's attractiveness, given uncertainty over how this will be implemented. The plan looks likely to hit banking sector profits and will use up a significant chunk of the central bank's FX reserves. 

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Shipping
7
Political
8
Economic
9
Business Environment
10
Industry Forecast
11
Port Of Gdansk Throughput
11
Port Of Gdynia Throughput
15
Table: Major Ports Data (Poland 2011-2018)
18
Table: Trade Overview (Poland 2011-2018)
19
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Poland 2011-2018)
20
Table: Top Import Sources, 2004-2012
21
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
22
Market Overview
23
Poland Container Shipping Market Overview
23
Industry Trends And Developments
28
Shipping - Global Industry View
31
Container Demand:
31
Container Supply:
38
Container Rates:
44
Global Company Strategy
48
Maersk Line
48
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
61
CMA CGM
66
Evergreen Line
76
COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON)
83
Macroeconomic Forecasts
90
Risks To Outlook
94
Table: Poland - Economic Activity
94
Demographic Forecast
95
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
96
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
97
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
98
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
98

The Poland Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Poland.

BMI's Poland Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Poland.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc