Export-Led Recovery Is Gaining Strength
The Polish recovery is strengthening and has led us to upgrade our forecasts for this year and for 2015. One of the key drivers is growing external demand, which has boosted exports and begun to reduce unemployment. There is still some slack in the labour market, which is preventing a build up of demand-pull inflationary pressures. Industrial output is improving and the government's fiscal stance is moderately expansive. Poland's integration with the German export machine is a key positive and we are predicting exports to grow by 10% this year and 11.8% in 2015.
Improving household demand will also boost consumer goods imports. We now estimate 2013 GDP growth at 1.6% (up from1.4% in our last report) and forecast 2014 growth at 2.8% (up from 2.6%), while2015 growth is anticipated to come in at 3.1% (up from 2.8%).
We continue to project positive growth for the country's major maritime ports in 2014. Despite a slow start to the year, the Port of Gdansk, which is seeing ongoing capacity expansion and consolidating its gateway role, will lead the way with double-digit percentage expansion. Gdynia is also expected to see steady growth, but at a lower, single-digit rate having enhanced its container role following its addition as a port of call on Hapag-Lloyd's service and further improvements of its intermodal links.
Headline Industry Data
2014 port of Gdansk tonnage throughput forecast to grow 10.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 33.557mn tonnes. Over the medium term to 2018, we project an 8.7% average annual increase.
2014 port of Gdansk container throughput forecast to grow 17.6% to 1.384mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). Over the medium term, we project a 12.5% average annual increase.
Port of Gdynia tonnage to increase 9.6% to19.353mn tonnes, with five-year average annual growth at 7.7%.
Port of Gdynia container handling growth predicted to be 6.8% in 2014, to 778,928TEUs, with growth set to average 6.5% in the...
The Poland Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Poland.
BMI's Poland Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Poland.
- Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish shipping market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.
SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.
Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).
Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.