Business Monitor International


Poland Retail Report

Published 23 July 2014

  • 96 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Poland Retail Report

BMI View:   Poland remains the most in demand retail market in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. BMI expects the Polish retail market to continue maturing over our forecast period to 2018. Global retailers, especially within the clothing and accessories subsector, are continuing to enter the market.

In the two decades since its transition from socialist state to free market economy, Poland has experienced an average annual GDP growth of 4%. In 2015, BMI forecasts its GDP at USD574bn, up from USD518bn in 2014. Even though the country's growth has slowed in recent quarters, BMI forecasts that Poland's middle class will continue to expand, with an estimated 16.2% of its population reaching the USD10,000-plus income bracket by 2015. Poland's retail outlook exhibits strong growth. The nation is one of the top recipients of foreign direct investment in the region. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development ranks Poland as the fourth most attractive investment location in Europe and fourteenth most attractive worldwide. According to the World Bank's Doing Business rankings, Poland ranks 45th among the 183 countries studied. Consistent economic growth and a favourable business environment make the nation an ideal location for global retailers and investors.

High demand for Polish retail space is indicated by low vacancy rates in existing shopping centres. Several international brands have been entering the market with stand-alone stores, including Samsung (electronics) and Bering (luxury accessories) at Akradia Shopping Centre and Louis Vuitton (luxury goods) in vitKac in Warsaw. Retailers in the market are also expanding their presence by introducing new concept stores such as Swedish apparel H&M's new home goods store and LPP Group's new brand Sinsay. To accomodate the entrance and expansion of retailers, 735,000sq m of retail space is currently under development and 402,000sq m is expected to be completed by 2014. Retail...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Total Household Spending, 2011-2018
15
Table: Retail Spending (%), 2011-2018
16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of GDP, 2011-2018
17
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending, 2011-2018
18
Retail Subsectors Forecast
19
Food & Drink
20
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending, 2011-2018
21
Clothing & Footwear
22
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
22
Household Goods
22
Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
23
Personal Care & Effects
24
Table: Personal Care Spending, 2011-2018
25
Household Income And Numbers Forecast
25
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
27
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
28
Demographic Forecast
29
Table: Population: Total, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Babies, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Young Children, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Children, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Young People, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Older Teenagers, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: 21yrs+, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: Young Adults, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: Middle Aged, 2011-2018
34
Table: Population: Urban/Rural, 2011-2018
34
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Economic Analysis
35
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
35
Risks To Outlook
38
Table: Economic Activity (Poland 2009-2018)
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Table: Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Poland Risk/Reward Rating
41
Rewards
41
Risks
41
Market Overview
43
Retail Subsectors
44
Online
46
Tourism
46
Competitive Landscape
47
Food And Drink
47
Clothing And Footwear
47
Homewares/Home Improvement
48
Other
48
Glossary
49
Methodology
56
Industry Forecast Methodology
56
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
59
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
61
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
62

The Poland Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Poland Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc