Business Monitor International


Poland Retail Report

Published 02 December 2014

  • 96 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Poland Retail Report

BMI View:   As a member of the EU and OECD, Poland remains of the wealthiest countries in CEE and demonstrates a high level of saturation in its retail sector. Poland was threatened by a number of Russian sanctions in H2 2014, however because of the strong domestic consumption and success in diversifying its export markets, it has proven its resilience against external threats and is expected to post an impressive 4.5% growth in GDP in 2015. External demand shocks and slowdown in euro area are holding back the rise in the prices as inflation amounted to only 0.4% in 2014 and will rise to 0.9% in 2015 ultimately benefitting the consumers in the country.

High integration in the Western European economy has had slightly negative effects for Polish consumers and businesses in the recent months. First, farmers in Poland, as in many other European Union states, were hit by the continent-wide Russian embargo on fruits and vegetables which precipitated up to 80% falls in prices of the goods. Even though consumers benefit from low prices, fruits and vegetables do not constitute a significant part in their consumption basket, for small and large farmers collectively the embargo of apples alone could cost more than USD650m in losses. Second, similarly to euro, Polish zloty lost around 10% of its value against dollar in the first three quarters of 2014 making imports less affordable for the consumers in the country. BMI anticipates that with the current trend in currency exchanges rates, Polish consumers will keep turning away from the products imported from outside Poland and euro zone.

The attractiveness of Polish products is also increasing because of the rising purchasing power of the consumers. BMI predicts that inflation will remain relatively low for the whole forecast period reaching its peak of 3% annually in 2017-2018. Meanwhile, household income is set to increase at a faster pace for each of the years of our forecast period. Absence of inflationary fears...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Total Household Spending (Poland 2011-2018)
15
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of Total (Poland 2011-2018)
16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % of GDP (Poland 2011-2018)
17
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending (Poland 2011-2018)
18
Retail Sector Forecast
19
Food & Drink
20
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending (Poland 2011-2018)
21
Clothing & Footwear
22
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending (Poland 2011-2018)
22
Household Goods
22
Table: Household Goods Spending (Poland 2011-2018)
23
Personal Care & Effects
24
Table: Personal Care Spending (Poland 2011-2018)
25
Household Numbers And Income Forecast
25
Table: Household Income Data (Poland 2011-2018)
27
Table: Labour Market Data (Poland 2011-2018)
29
Demographic Forecast
29
Table: Total Population (Poland 2011-2018)
31
Table: Population: Babies (Poland 2011-2018)
31
Table: Population: Young Children (Poland 2011-2018)
31
Table: Population: Children (Poland 2011-2018)
32
Table: Population: Young Teens and Older Children (Poland 2011-2018)
32
Table: Population: Young People (Poland 2011-2018)
32
Table: Population: Older Teenagers (Poland 2011-2018)
33
Table: Population: 21yrs + (Poland 2011-2018)
33
Table: Population: Young Adults (Poland 2011-2018)
33
Table: Population: Middle Aged (Poland 2011-2018)
34
Table: Population: Urban (Poland 2011-2018)
34
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Economic Analysis
35
Macro Outlook
35
Real GDP By Expenditure
36
Risks To Outlook
39
Table: Economic Activity (Poland 2009-2018)
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Table: Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Poland Risk/Reward Rating
40
Rewards
41
Risks
41
Market Overview
42
Retail Subsectors
44
Online
45
Tourism
46
Competitive Landscape
47
Food And Drink
47
Clothing And Footwear
48
Homewares/Home Improvement
48
Personal Care
49
Other
49
Glossary
50
Methodology
57
Industry Forecast Methodology
57
Sources
60
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
60
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
62
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
63

The Poland Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Poland Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc