Business Monitor International


Poland Retail Report

Published 16 April 2014

  • 96 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Poland Retail Report

BMI View:  

Poland's retail sector is burgeoning. While the overall population is in decline, personal expenditures and household wealth have increased and encouraged the positive outlook. Now entering its third decade, the Polish retail market has matured with growth figures rivalling its neighbours in Central and Eastern Europe.

The Polish Council of Shopping Centres announced that 2014 will see an additional 160,000 sqm of retail space become available to join the 416 retail shopping centres that are already on the market. Currently with 10 million sqm of retail space, it cements their position as one of the largest retail markets in Europe. Poland's online retail sales also continue to show promising progress as the internet sales volume grows at 30% year-on-year. According to research by PwC, a third of Poland's online retailers offer their services and merchandise to global clients.

While Warsaw and other densely populated cities are saturated with shopping centres, there are opportunities to penetrate the local markets that have no modern retail spaces. The unequal levels of saturation of retail spaces throughout Poland creates opportunities for retailers and investors to explore new opportunities as the country enters a new cycle of retail market development.

BMI Forecasts:

  • We have modestly revised up our total household expenditure forecast out to 2018. We are now forecasting spending growth of 30.5%, from our previous forecast of 29.9% last quarter.

  • The highest growth retail category within the sector will remain furnishing and homeware spending. As well as broader macroeconomic factors, growth in this sector will be aided by strong forecast growth in household numbers as the make-up of the traditional Polish household evolves.

  • While growth in furnishings and homeware will be strongest, we expect food and non-alcoholic beverages to continue to account for the highest percentage of household spending at around 20%. We do not expect this to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Industry Forecast
13
Headline Retail Forecast
13
Table: Total Household Spending, 2011-2018
15
Table: Retail Spending (%), 2011-2018
16
Table: Retail Sector Spending, % Of GDP, 2011-2018
17
Table: Headline Retail Sector Spending, 2011-2018
18
Retail Subsectors Forecast
19
Food & Drink
20
Table: Food, Drink & Tobacco Spending, 2011-2018
21
Clothing & Footwear
22
Table: Clothing & Footwear Spending, 2011-2018
22
Household Goods
22
Table: Household Goods Spending, 2011-2018
23
Personal Care & Effects
24
Table: Personal Care Spending, 2011-2018
25
Household Income And Numbers Forecast
25
Table: Household Data, 2011-2018
27
Table: Labour Market Data, 2011-2018
28
Demographic Forecast
29
Table: Population: Total, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Babies, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Young Children, 2011-2018
31
Table: Population: Children, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Young Teens And Older Children, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Young People, 2011-2018
32
Table: Population: Older Teenagers, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: 21yrs+, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: Young Adults, 2011-2018
33
Table: Population: Middle Aged, 2011-2018
34
Table: Population: Urban/Rural, 2011-2018
34
Macroeconomic Forecasts
35
Economic Analysis
35
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
35
Risks To Outlook
38
Table: Economic Activity (Poland 2009-2018)
39
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
40
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Table: Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Poland Risk/Reward Rating
41
Rewards
41
Risks
41
Market Overview
43
Retail Subsectors
44
Online
46
Tourism
46
Competitive Landscape
47
Food And Drink
47
Clothing And Footwear
47
Homewares/Home Improvement
48
Other
48
Glossary
49
Methodology
56
Industry Forecast Methodology
56
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
59
Table: Retail Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
61
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
62

The Poland Retail Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent assessment and forecasts for the retail sector. The report examines key drivers of retail sales growth and future prospects, including consumer spending and private sector investment.

BMI's Poland Retail Report also examines the level of development and potential for growth of the retail sector, the commercial initiatives of major players, changing consumer demographics that influence demand and the regulatory environment. Key sub-sectors include mass grocery retail, autos, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, computers and consumer electronics.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent retail industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish retail market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key forecasts and industry analysis, plus a discussion of major industry developments and a snapshot of key short-term demand-driving macroeconomic movements.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the retail sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

There are four separate 5-year forecast modules in the retail reports. These are:

Headline Retail Forecast: Total Household Spending, (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, per capita, per household); Spending by Retail Sector for: food and non-alcoholic drink, alcoholic drink, clothing and footwear, housing and utilities, furnishings and home, health, transport, recreation, education, transport, restaurants and hotels, personal care and insurance (US$bn and local currency, % growth, % GDP, % of total spending)

Retail Sector Forecast: Breakdown of Food, Non Alcoholic Drink, Alcohol, Tobacco, Clothing, Footwear, Household Goods, Furnishings, Appliances, Glass and Tableware, Household Textiles, Consumer Electronics, Garden Toys and Pets, Home and Garden tools, Personal Care, Personal Effects Spending (US$bn, % Growth);

Household Income and Numbers Forecast: Number of Households (‘000,% growth); gross income per household and per capita; net income per household and per capita; tax and social contributions per capita; breakdown of household incomes – US$5000+, US$10,000+ US$50000+ (‘000, % of total); labour force, employment and unemployment (‘000, % change)

Demographic Forecast: Total population; Babies 0-12 months; Young Children 0-4yrs; Children 5-9yrs; Young Teens and Older Children 10-14yrs; Older Teens 15-19yrs; Adults 21yrs +; Young Adults 21-29yrs; Middle Aged 40-64yrs (‘000, % growth, male, female); Urban Population (‘000, % population); Rural Population (‘000, % population).

Industry Risk Reward Rankings

BMI’s Retail Industry Risk Reward Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk Reward Rankings index aimed at investors in the regional retail market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Market Overview

Provides a detailed country-specific analysis of the key trends and developments in the retail sector as a whole, as well as an assessment of the main drivers affecting the major retail segments including mass grocery retail, fashion, pharmacies, consumer electronics, home improvement and personal care.

The market overview also considers the most effective store formats in a given country and the impact of these factors on the main international and domestic players’ development strategies.

Competitive Landscape

This provides a brief overview of the key players in each subsection of the retail sector including MGR, Fashion, Home Improvement, Consumer Electronics, Pharmacies, and Department Store chains.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc