Business Monitor International


Poland Renewables Report

Published 24 April 2014

  • 39 pages
 
$1,295.00
Poland Renewables Report

BMI View: Since the Polish government approved the renewable energy sources (RES) law in April 2014, there has been relatively little activity in the Polish renewables sector. This is something we expected as developers are likely to delay investment until the full impact of the new regulatory framework is determined. As such, we have largely maintained our renewables forecasts this quarter as we had already priced in significant regulatory uncertainty.

Poland's non-hydro renewables segment has expanded rapidly over the past decade, with capacity growing at average annual growth rates of nearly 60% between 2002 and 2012. This is partially due to base effects, but also on account of continued pressure on Poland from the EU to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions and diversify its coal-heavy electricity mix. Targets adopted by Poland stipulate that electricity generated from renewable energy sources should contribute at least 15% to the total by 2020.

Key Trends And Developments

  • After years of uncertainty and alterations to the draft renewable energy sources (RES) law, the latest version (which was published in November 2013 by Poland's Ministry of Economy), was approved by the Polish government in April 2014. It proposes an alteration to the country's previous support scheme, which utilised Green Certificates, and a switch to a competitive bidding system. The law is scheduled to become effective from January 1 2015.

  • It was announced in July 2014 that Alstom secured a contract to supply turbines for the 90MW Lotnisko wind power project in Kopaniewo. This project is Alstom's first in Poland and is due online by end-2015.

  • Swedish renewable energy company OX2 acquired Polish firm Greenfield Wind in June 2014 - with the aim of expanding the company's wind portfolio in Poland. The acquisition includes its 220MW wind project portfolio.

  • In October 2013, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development stated it will provide a loan of PLN292mn...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
6
Industry Forecast
8
Poland Renewables Forecast Scenario
8
Table: Poland Total Electricity Generation Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
8
Table: Poland Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
9
Table: Poland Electricity Generating Capacity Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
11
Table: Poland Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
13
Poland Renewables Projects Database
20
Table: Poland Key Projects - Renewables
20
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Poland Renewables Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Rewards
22
Risks
22
Market Overview
24
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure
24
Targets (Renewables And Emissions)
24
Subsidies
26
Infrastructure
27
Competitive Landscape
28
Tauron Polska Energia
28
PGE/PSE
28
ENEA
29
Energa
29
RWE/STOEN
29
Glossary
31
Table: Glossary Of Terms
31
Methodology
32
Methodology And Sources
32
Industry Forecast Methodology
32
Sources
34
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
34
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
36
Table: Weighting Indicators
38

The Poland Renewables Report researched at source contains Business Monitor International (BMI)'s assessment of the current renewables market in Poland. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2017 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).

The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Poland, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.

The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Poland, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.

BMI's Poland Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland renewables industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Poland renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Poland, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.

These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.

Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.

These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Renewables Business Environment Ratings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Ratings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.

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