Business Monitor International

Poland Renewables Report

Published 03 March 2014

  • 39 pages
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Poland Renewables Report

The Polish government's approval of a new draft renewable energy law has had little impact on our forecasts for non-hydro renewables. The law is likely to ensure some regulatory clarity when it comes into force in 2015 (if approved by parliament), but we warn that some developers are likely to refrain from investing until the true impact of the new regulatory framework has been determined - a symptom of years of regulatory uncertainty.

Poland's non-hydro renewables segment has expanded rapidly over the past decade, with capacity growing at average annual growth rates of nearly 60% between 2002 and 2012. This is partially due to base effects, but also on account of continued pressure on Poland from the EU to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions and diversify its coal-heavy electricity mix. Targets adopted by Poland stipulate that electricity generated from renewable energy sources should contribute at least 15% to the total by 2020.

Recent trends and developments within the renewables industry include:

  • In April 2014, the Polish government approved a renewable energy draft law, which has been two years in the making. The bill will now go to parliament and the president for approval. The new regulations are expected to become effective from January 2015.

  • In October 2013, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development stated that it will provide a loan of PLN292mn (US$94mn) to the Polish government to finance the construction of three new wind farms in the country. The facilities - the 41.4MW Gawlowice, 36.8MW Skurpie and 25.3MW Rajgrod wind farms - will have a combined production capacity of 103.5MW.

  • It was announced on March 7 2013 that the EU's second highest court, the General Court in Luxembourg, rejected Poland's challenges to the European Commission regarding the allocation of free carbon permits for energy-intensive industries. The EU's unrelenting battle against Polish coal is likely to help to drive the government to seek alternative power sources.


Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
Industry Forecast
Poland Renewables Forecast Scenario
Table: Poland Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2012 - 2017
Table: Poland Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2018 - 2023
Table: Poland Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2012 - 2017
Table: Poland Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2018 - 2023
Poland Renewables Projects Database
Table: Poland Key Projects - Renewables
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
Poland Renewables Risk/Reward Ratings
Market Overview
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure
Targets (Renewables and Emissions)
Competitive Landscape
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology and Sources
Industry Forecast Methodology
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Renewables Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
Table: Weighting Indicators

The Poland Renewables Report researched at source contains Business Monitor International (BMI)'s assessment of the current renewables market in Poland. The report also contains historical data together with forecasts to end-2017 covering electricity generation (TWh) and electricity capacity (MW).

The renewables sectors covered in the report include Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Tidal and Wave, and Biomass (See Table of Contents for exact coverage). The report also features details on government green energy agendas and funding opportunities, as well as presenting a detailed list of key renewables projects currently being planned or undertaken in Poland, their capacity, the timeframe of construction and their current status.

The report discusses the various energy policies currently in force, including targets, subsidies and the relevant infrastructure developments or limitations which might impact on renewables growth, analysing the potential effects of regulatory changes in conjunction with the background macroeconomic outlook. Finally, there is a general overview of the competitive landscape in Poland, together with a detailed summary of the main utilities and manufacturers present and their business operations.

BMI's Poland Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with unique independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland renewables industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent renewables industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and planning in the renewables market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Poland renewables sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in the country.


BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering the renewables market in Poland, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the renewables sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2010-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual renewables sector present in the country.

These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation: Overall capacity (TWh), growth % change year-on-year, KWh per capita, % of Total Non-Hydropower renewables generation, % of total electricity generation.

Electricity Capacity: Overall capacity (MW), growth % change year-on-year, % of non-hydroelectric renewables capacity and % of total capacity.

These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Renewables Business Environment Ratings provide fully comparable Risk-Reward Ratings aimed at investors in the regional renewables market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data point.

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'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc