Business Monitor International


Poland Power Report

Published 19 August 2014

  • 81 pages
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$1,295.00
Poland Power Report

BMI View: Our forecasts for Poland's broader economy and - by extension - the country's power sector remain muted . However, the outlook for both is improving , underpinning our forecasts for modest growth in electricity generation and consumption. Wholesale electricity prices will continue to climb higher as demand for electricity rebounds, incentivising investment in new capacity - although new power plants may come online too late to assuage fears of a capacity deficit.

Poland is in a difficult position as it establishes its future energy policies: it must adhere to EU directives so as to reduce the amount of polluting coal in its capacity mix, but is struggling to attract the investment needed to replace or modernise ageing capacity as low wholesale electricity prices and weak demand sap interest in the power sector. With 5GW of coal-fired capacity due to come offline before 2016, Poland faces the prospect of an electricity deficit as demand picks up again - triggering calls for the introduction of a capacity mechanism that would be underpinned by law.

That said, there are indications that the outlook for the economy and the power sector is improving gradually. The economic rebound will be sustained by stronger domestic consumption, low inflation and employment growth. In the power sector, the outlook for wholesale electricity prices continues to improve. Although they remain low by historical standards, rising prices are a key indicator of sentiment in the Polish power market and show there is increased optimism about future demand growth. At the time of writing wholesale electricity prices had risen to around PLN173.5/MWh as demand contraction (in part due to a warm winter) lagged a decline in generation output in the first half of 2014. 

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Donald Tusk continues to clash with the European Commission (EC) as he attempts to ensure relatively cheap, but highly polluting domestic coal remains a key part of Poland's energy mix. This...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
12
Poland Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2013-2018)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Poland 2018-2023)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Poland Power Forecast Scenario
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2017)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Poland 2018-2023)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2017)
15
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Poland 2018-2023)
16
Consumption
34
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2017)
34
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Poland 2018-2023)
34
Transmission And Distribution
36
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2017)
36
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Poland 2018-2023)
36
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2017)
36
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2018-2023)
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
39
CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Table: Regional Overview
44
Poland Power Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Rewards
45
Risks
46
Market Overview
47
Key Policies And Market Structure
47
Regulation And Competition
47
Sustainable Energy Policies
48
Poland Power Projects Database
50
Table: Major Projects - Power
50
Competitive Landscape
53
Tauron
54
PGE/PSE
55
PKE/Tauron Wytwarzanie
56
ENEA
56
Energa
57
RWE/STOEN
57
Vattenfall
57
Electrabel
58
Company Profile
59
Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE)
59
Regional Overview
64
CEE Power Regional Overview
64
Glossary
71
Table: Glossary Of Terms
71
Methodology
72
Industry Forecast Methodology
72
Sources
75
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
75
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
76
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
78

The Poland Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Poland Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Poland's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Poland
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc