Business Monitor International


Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 24 November 2014

  • 115 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View:   Released retail pharmacy and national health insurance reimbursement data supports our earlier assertion of a rebound in Q214 and reinforces our full - year forecast for pharmaceutical sales in Poland. We see unemployment trending downwards and rising household consumption boosting overall GDP growth and feeding into an uptick in healthcare expenditure and pharmaceutical sales over the next five years. Over-the-counter medicines and generics will continue to be the primary drivers of growth, with regulatory hurdles holding back sales of innovative drugs.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: PLN32.39bn (USD10.25bn) in 2013 to PLN33.58bn (USD10.71bn) in 2014; 3.8% in local currency terms and 4.5% in US dollar terms. 

  • Healthcare: PLN111.44bn (USD35.27bn) in 2013 to PLN115.60bn (USD36.88bn) in 2014; +3.7% in local currency terms and +4.6% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Index

Poland has a RRI score of 61.5 out of 100, making it the most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe.

Key Trends And Developments

October 2014

Polish pharmaceutical distributor Neuca plans to enter the high-margin medical clinics segment to compensate for declining profitability in its core business, reports Reuters, citing CEO Piotr Sucharski. At first, the company plans to buy 20 outpatient clinics for USD9mn and has plans for further spending. The investment in the 20-30 clinics is expected to contribute between PLN20mn (USD6mn) and PLN30mn (USD9mn) to Neuca's consolidated revenue. The medical services business is expected to have double-digit margins, significantly more than drug distribution, according to Sucharski.

Poland-based biotechnology company Biogened has signed a contract worth PLN8mn (USD2.41mn) with Romania-based pharmaceutical company Labormed Pharma to renew the licence to distribute Pridinol in Poland, reports Reuters. Under the terms of the contract, Biogened will also transfer rights to dossier and brands of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
24
Generic Drug Market Forecast
25
Table: Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
26
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
27
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts (Poland 2010-2018)
28
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (Poland 2012-2018)
31
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts local currency (Poland 2012-2018)
31
Macroeconomic Forecasts
32
Risks To Outlook
36
Table: Poland - Economic Activity
36
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
37
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Poland Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Rewards
44
Risks
44
Market Overview
46
Industry Trends And Developments
47
Epidemiology
47
Healthcare Sector
48
Hospital Infrastructure
50
Ambulatory Infrastructure
51
Table: Civilian Outpatient Facilities, 2002-2009
51
Hospital Privatisation
51
Health Insurance
53
Distribution Channels
56
Table: Cefarm's Financial Indicators, 2007-2010 (PLN mn)
58
Research & Development
59
Clinical Trials
59
Medical Devices
62
Regulatory Development
64
Advertising Regulations
65
Other Regulatory Developments
66
Intellectual Property Regime
67
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime
69
Reimbursement Regime Changes
74
Competitive Landscape
78
Pharmaceutical Sector
78
Domestic Industry
78
Foreign Industry
81
Pharmaceutical Wholesale Sector
83
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
86
Table: Number Of Pharmacies In Poland, 2004-2009
86
Company Profile
87
Polpharma
87
Bioton
90
GlaxoSmithKline
93
Eli Lilly
96
Gedeon Richter
98
Krka
101
Lek/Sandoz
103
Demographic Forecast
106
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
107
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
108
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
109
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
109
Glossary
110
Methodology
112
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
112
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
112
Notes On Methodology
113
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
114
Ratings Overview
115
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
115
Indicator Weightings
116

The Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Poland pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's pharmaceutical and healthcare market forecasts for Poland, to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors using our company profiles (including SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and competitive landscape tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An at-a-glance perspective on the latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The pharmaceuticals and healthcare SWOT outlines strategic factors that affect the basic assumptions underpinning BMI’s forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI’s political, economic and business environment SWOTs, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Industry forecasts to end-2019 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (USDbn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (USD), hospital beds, doctors, and birth & mortality rates (all per ‘000 population).
  • Pharmaceutical Market: Drug expenditure in USDbn, % of GDP and per capita (USD).
  • Patented Drug Market: Prescription drug sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Generic Drug Market: Generic product sales (USDbn), generic sales (% of total sales).
  • OTC Drug Market: OTC sales (USDbn & % of total sales).
  • Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against USD, government expenditure and external debt.

BMI’s Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Index provides investors (both national and multinational) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of the market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each position explained.

Market Summary

A snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of the pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape

Industry Developments

A focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, mergers and acquisitions, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and index by USD sales and % share of total sales – for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc