Business Monitor International


Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

Published 05 February 2014

  • 112 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report

BMI View: The Polish national health insurer has updated its reimbursement list, with a mix of positive and negative developments. Generic drugmakers are expected to feel further pricing pressures in 2014, while multinational drugmakers will welcome the decision to improve access to innovative therapies for cancer patients. With among the lowest drug prices in Europe, we expect patented drugs to outperform over the short-term as cost savings from generic drugs are passed onto funding expensive medicines.

Headline Expenditure Projections

  • Pharmaceuticals: PLN32.39bn (US10.18bn) in 2013 to PLN33.46bn (US$10.00bn) in 2014; 3.30% in local currency terms and -1.8% in US dollar terms.

  • Healthcare: PLN110.88bn (US$34.85bn) in 2013 to PLN112.68bn (US$33.67bn) in 2014; +1.6% in local currency terms and -3.4% in US dollar terms.

Risk/Reward Rating

Poland has a RRR score of 61.5 out of 100, making it the second most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe.

Key Trends And Developments

The Polish national health insurer (NFZ) has updated its reimbursement list at the start of the year, in line with its policy of reviewing the list every two months. The updated list added 114 new pharmaceutical products that would be partially or fully reimbursed by the national health insurer. At the same time, the NFZ has trimmed the list of older and outdated medicines, thereby freeing up funding for newer, more effective drugs. Some 297 drugs have been removed, although pharmaceutical manufacturers indicated earlier in the year that they would not submit drugs for consideration as the price set by the NFZ was unprofitable.

Data released from the National Health Fund (NFZ) highlights the inherent inefficiency of the health-insurance system in Poland. Of the 16mn people covered by the mandatory state health insurance scheme, almost 30% do not pay any premiums into the system. Among those entitled to free healthcare include the unemployed, pensioners, clergymen and...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast
14
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts
15
Healthcare Market Forecast
16
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017
18
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017
19
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017
19
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
20
Table: Prescription Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
21
Patented Drug Market Forecast
22
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
23
Generic Drug Market Forecast
24
Table: Poland Generics Drug Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
25
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
26
Table: Over-The-Counter (OTC) Medicine Market Indicators, Historical Data And Forecasts
27
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
28
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (US$mn)
29
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Data And Forecasts (PLNmn)
30
Macroeconomic Forecasts
31
Table: Poland - Economic Activity
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Poland Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Rewards
41
Risks
41
Market Overview
43
Industry Trends And Developments
44
Epidemiology
44
Healthcare Sector
45
Hospital Infrastructure
47
Ambulatory Infrastructure
47
Table: Civilian Outpatient Facilities, 2002-2009
48
Hospital Privatisation
48
Health Insurance
49
Distribution Channels
53
Table: Cefarm's Financial Indicators, 2007-2010 (PLN mn)
54
Research & Development
55
Clinical Trials
56
Medical Devices
58
Regulatory Development
60
Advertising Regulations
61
Other Regulatory Developments
62
Intellectual Property Regime
63
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime
65
Reimbursement Regime Changes
70
Competitive Landscape
74
Pharmaceutical Sector
74
Domestic Industry
74
Foreign Industry
77
Pharmaceutical Wholesale Sector
79
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector
82
Table: Number Of Pharmacies In Poland, 2004-2009
82
Company Profile
83
Polpharma
83
Bioton
86
GlaxoSmithKline
88
Eli Lilly
91
Gedeon Richter
93
Krka
96
Lek/Sandoz
98
Demographic Forecast
101
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
102
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
103
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
104
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
104
Glossary
105
Methodology
107
Pharmaceutical Expenditure Forecast Model
107
Healthcare Expenditure Forecast Model
107
Notes On Methodology
108
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
109
Ratings Overview
110
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators
110
Indicator Weightings
111

The Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s forecasts for drugs and healthcare expenditure and imports and exports, focusing on the growth outlook for the prescription, OTC, patented drugs and generics market segments.

BMI's Poland Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report provides industry professionals, strategists, company executives, investors, analysts and sales/marketing heads with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent pharmaceutical and healthcare industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish pharmaceutical and healthcare sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View & Industry SWOT

An at-a-glance perspective on latest regulatory developments, key forecast indicators and major corporate developments, covering the prescription, OTC and generics markets. The SWOT outlines strategic factors which affect BMI's forecast analysis, and taken together with BMI's political, economic and business environment SWOTS, it gives a complete overview of market climate.

Market Summary

Snapshot of key market characteristics, including total size of pharmaceuticals and healthcare segments, growth drivers, leading therapeutic areas and the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Regime

Details of the industry regulatory framework and key legislation covering the licensing of new products/services, pricing and reimbursements, intellectual property, taxation and advertising, as well as an analysis of the overall regulatory burden.

Industry Developments

Focus on government healthcare reforms, epidemiological trends, company M&As, product launches, market entries, FDI activity, R&D, biotechnology, clinical trials and supply chain issues.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Healthcare: Total healthcare expenditure (US$bn), healthcare expenditure (% of GDP), healthcare expenditure per capita (US$), hospital beds (per `000 population), doctors (per `000 population), birth and mortality rate (per `000 population)

Pharmaceutical market: Drug expenditure (US$bn), drug expenditure (% of GDP), drug expenditure per capita (US$)

Patented drug market: Prescription drug sales (US$bn), prescription sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by 14 therapeutic areas (cardiovascular, anti-infectives etc.)

Generic drug market: Generic product sales (US$bn), generic sales (% of total sales)

OTC drug market: OTC sales (US$bn), OTC sales (% of total sales), sales broken down by product types (analgesics, skin treatments, vitamins and minerals etc.)

Medical Devices: Medical device sales (US$bn), medical device sales (% of total healthcare market)

Macroeconomic Forecasts: Nominal and real GDP, % real GDP growth, % private consumption growth, % industrial output growth, % consumer price index, % GDP price deflator, exports, imports, trade balance, current account balance, foreign direct investment, exchange rate against US$, government expenditure, external debt.

Competitive Landscape

The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc