BMI View: Although petrochemicals output fell in 2014, BMI 's latest Poland Petrochemicals Report predicts an improved performance in 2015 as end use industrial consumers - particularly in the automotive and construction industries - see a more optimistic scenario on both domestic and external markets.
Major polymers witnessed a sharp decline in output in the first nine months of 2014, suggesting that capacity utilisation was low. Polyethylene was down 6.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 249,300 tonnes, polypropylene fell 15.5% to 166,900 tonnes, PVC declined 9.9% to 210,700 tonnes and synthetic rubber fell 2.3% to 143,000 tonnes. Weaker export orders have been blamed for the softening Polish industrial production data. A deceleration in manufacturing output was the main driver for the decline, most likely due to weaker German demand. This is broadly in line with our expectations for weaker German demand for Polish exports.
In 2014 Poland had olefins of 700,000tpa ethylene, 475,000tpa propylene and 60,000tpa butadiene. Polymer capacities include 320,000tpa high-density polyethylene (HDPE), 170,000tpa low-density polyethylene (LDPE), 400,000tpa PP, 550,000tpa PVC, 90,000tpa polystyrene (PS) and 120,000tpa polyethylene terephthalate (PET). In the fertiliser segment, it had capacities of 1.4mn tpa in both ammonia and urea.
These capacities are unlikely to change radically over the medium-term, particularly with prospects for shale gas exploitation diminishing and with them the chance of expanding olefins production
A recovery in output will depend on export-led industries, which are expected to see stronger performance. In terms of market segments, sentiment appears to be recovering in the construction industry, which is a major consumer of tubing and PVC. More crucially, the automotive sector - a consumer of engineering plastics, synthetic rubbers and polyurethanes - is set for export-led growth following years of decline. Growth will follow an upwards trend over...
The Poland Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Poland Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish petrochemicals industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Polish petrochemicals market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.
Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).
Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.