Business Monitor International


Poland Petrochemicals Report

Published 03 September 2014

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$1,295.00
Poland Petrochemicals Report

The Polish petrochemicals industry continues to face a challenging domestic market and a slow recovery in external markets, which have combined to depress output growth of basic polymers, according to BMI's latest Poland Petrochemicals Report.

The overall trend is downward across the range of major polymers. In H114, overall plastics output was down 0.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1.35mn tonnes. While polyethylene was up 0.3% to 179,000 tonnes, there were significant declines in other major basic polymers. PVC was down 4.7% to 142,000 tonnes, synthetic rubber was down 4.9% to 92,800 tonnes and polypropylene was down 15.1% to 111,000 tonnes.

PKN Orlen has announced plans to invest PLN10.8bn (USD3.51bn) on development projects between 2014 and 2017, focusing on the downstream segment, which will account for 59.3% of total expenses. According to a company note, the projects will include improvement of refinery yields, extension of the value chain in petrochemicals (polyethylene, metathesis) and industrial cogeneration in power generation (Wloclawek and Plock CCGT units). As a marginal business, PKN Orlen's upstream segment will see an investment of PLN3.2bn (USD1.04bn) and account for 29.6% of expenses.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

  • The most significant petrochemicals-consuming industry is the automotive sector, which exports 90% of its output. On the back of the improvements in the European market, pent-up demand from several years of sustained declines in output and low base effects from 2013, BMI forecasts a 4% increase in passenger car production in Poland in 2014. This is a downward revision from the 6.6% growth forecast in the previous quarter, indicating only a modest boost to the consumption of engineering plastics in the PP segment, polyurethane used in car seating and synthetic rubber for tyres.

  • The market for construction materials, particularly in the PVC segment, Poland's construction sector is expected to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Polish Petrochemicals Sector, 2012-2018 ('000tpa, unless otherwise stated)
17
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Risks To Outlook
22
Table: Poland - Economic Activity
22
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
23
Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Table: European Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
27
Poland Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Market Overview
29
Industry Trends And Developments
32
Capacity Expansions
32
PKN Orlen strategy 2013-2017
33
Upstream
33
Merger And Acquisitions
34
Company Profile
37
Polski Koncern Naftowy Orlen (PKN Orlen)
37
Anwil
41
Grupa Lotos
43
Table: Grupo Lotos financial results (PLNmn)
46
Regional Overview
48
Europe Overview
48
Regulatory Concerns Add To Competitiveness Issues
48
Declining Capacities
49
Table: European Cracker Capacities, 2013
55
Global Industry Overview
59
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
62
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
63
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
64
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
65
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
65
Gasoline
67
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast, 2012-2018
67
Weak Q114 For Gasoline
68
Europe And The US: Competitive Market To Limit Summer Gains
69
Asia: Market Rebalancing To Better Support Market
72
Risks To Outlook
75
Diesel
75
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
76
New York's One-Off Heat Up
76
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
79
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
83
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
85
Risks To Outlook
89
Jet Fuel
90
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
90
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
90
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
92
Risks To Outlook
95
Bunker Fuel
96
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
96
The Storm Clears For Shipping
97
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
99
Long-Term Threats Linger
100
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
102
Risks To Outlook
102
Demographic Forecast
104
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
105
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
106
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
107
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
107
Glossary
108
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
108
Methodology
109
Industry Forecast Methodology
109
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
111
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
112
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
113

The Poland Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Poland Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Polish petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc