The Polish petrochemicals industry continues to face a challenging domestic market and a slow recovery in external markets, which have combined to depress output growth of basic polymers, according to BMI's latest Poland Petrochemicals Report.
The overall trend is downward across the range of major polymers. In H114, overall plastics output was down 0.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 1.35mn tonnes. While polyethylene was up 0.3% to 179,000 tonnes, there were significant declines in other major basic polymers. PVC was down 4.7% to 142,000 tonnes, synthetic rubber was down 4.9% to 92,800 tonnes and polypropylene was down 15.1% to 111,000 tonnes.
PKN Orlen has announced plans to invest PLN10.8bn (USD3.51bn) on development projects between 2014 and 2017, focusing on the downstream segment, which will account for 59.3% of total expenses. According to a company note, the projects will include improvement of refinery yields, extension of the value chain in petrochemicals (polyethylene, metathesis) and industrial cogeneration in power generation (Wloclawek and Plock CCGT units). As a marginal business, PKN Orlen's upstream segment will see an investment of PLN3.2bn (USD1.04bn) and account for 29.6% of expenses.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
The most significant petrochemicals-consuming industry is the automotive sector, which exports 90% of its output. On the back of the improvements in the European market, pent-up demand from several years of sustained declines in output and low base effects from 2013, BMI forecasts a 4% increase in passenger car production in Poland in 2014. This is a downward revision from the 6.6% growth forecast in the previous quarter, indicating only a modest boost to the consumption of engineering plastics in the PP segment, polyurethane used in car seating and synthetic rubber for tyres.
The market for construction materials, particularly in the PVC segment, Poland's construction sector is expected to...
The Poland Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Poland Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish petrochemicals industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Polish petrochemicals market.
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BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.
Industry Trends & Developments
Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:
Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).
Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.
Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.