Business Monitor International


Poland Freight Transport Report

Published 18 November 2014

  • 94 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Poland Freight Transport Report

Another Year O f Freight Growth In 2015

In 2015 Poland's freight transport sector will experience another year of growth: in most modes it will edge slightly ahead of the pace of expansion experienced in 2014. This will come on the back of slightly faster GDP and trade growth in the country. Some freight modes will have the additional benefit of increases in capacity or extra demand because of Poland's role as a gateway into north-eastern Europe. Reflecting the rapid development of its capacity, as well as its good business links, the port of Gdansk will see gross tonnage growth of 6.1%. Road freight will also do well, with cargo volume up by a healthy 4.8%.

We are optimistic about the outlook for the Polish economy in 2015, predicting that GDP growth will accelerate to 3.1%, up from an estimated 2.8% in 2014. In fact, despite a slowdown in some of the country's leading economic indicators in mid-2014, attributed to weaker eurozone and moderating German demand for Polish exports, we believe the domestic economy remains solid. The pause may have also reflected worries over the crisis in the Ukraine that have, for the moment at least, receded. Looking to 2015 our optimism is based on the way household purchasing power is being supported by a combination of low inflation and employment growth.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2015 airfreight tonnage is expected to grow by 4.2% (up from an estimated 4.0% in 2014)

  • 2015 rail freight is forecast to grow by 2.2%, after 1.4% growth estimated for the preceding year

  • 2015 port of Gdansk bulk tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 6.1% (marginally ahead of the 6.0% estimated for 2014)

  • 2015 road freight is forecast to grow by 4.8%, after growth of 4.6% in 2014

  • 2015 inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 2.7% the same as in the preceding year)

  • 2015 total real trade growth will quicken to 11.9%, up from the estimated 10.0% in 2014.

Key Industry Trends

PKP Cargo Gets Ready For Fight With DB Schenker: ...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Business Environment
11
Economic
12
Political
13
Industry Forecast
14
Road
16
Table: Road Freight, 2010-2017
18
Rail
18
Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
21
Inland Waterway
21
Table: Poland Transport Network
21
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2010-2017
22
Air Freight
22
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
23
Maritime
24
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
24
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
24
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
25
Table: Poland's Main Import Partners (US$mn)
26
Table: Poland's Main Export Partners (US$mn)
26
Market Overview
27
Industry Trends And Developments
31
Multimodal/Logistics
31
Rail
31
Air
33
Maritime
33
Company Profile
35
PKP Cargo
35
DB Schenker Rail Polska
39
CTL Logistics
42
LOT Cargo
44
Regional Overview
47
Political Outlook
47
Domestic Politics
47
Table: Political Overview
48
Long-Term Political Outlook
49
Global Industry Overview
57
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
57
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
57
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
58
Refiners: Is The Party Over-
60
Jet Fuel: Middle East & Africa Remain Positive As Global Air Traffic Slumps
63
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
65
Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
65
Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
66
Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
66
Macroeconomic Forecasts
69
Table: Poland - Economic Activity, 2009 - 2016
74
Demographic Forecast
75
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
76
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
77
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
78
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
78
Methodology
79
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
79
Transport Industry
80
Sources
80

The Poland Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Poland Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc