Business Monitor International


Poland Freight Transport Report

Published 02 September 2014

  • 94 pages
 
$1,295.00
Poland Freight Transport Report

2.8% GDP Growth Expected This Year

BMI remains fundamentally positive about the Polish economy, although a little below consensus in our growth forecasts. Underpinning this is our view that domestic consumption will remain strong, stimulated by low inflation, rising employment, and low interest rates. Household consumption represents a larger share of the Polish economy - around 60% - than in some of its Central European neighbours (around 50% for Slovakia and the Czech Republic). This gives Poland extra resilience to any headwinds coming from the external environment. That said, we are also positive about the contribution net exports will make to the country's ongoing recovery. This, however, is where we are a little more cautious than the consensus. We see risks that declining Asia demand will feed through into weaker German factory output, in turn dampening demand from Polish supply chains. For 2014 we are forecasting real GDP growth of 2.8% versus consensus forecasts of 3.2%. Nonetheless, the acceleration in economic activity remains reasonably robust, and domestic and external conditions will remain accommodating. We expect growth to gather pace to 3.1% next year. Poland should achieve average annual growth of 3.3% over the next five years.

Although expanding on 2013 levels, the outlook for the country's freight transport modes is mixed. After a slow 2013, greater GDP and foreign trade growth in 2014 will make a positive contribution. Some freight modes will have the additional benefit of increases in capacity or extra demand because of Poland's role as a gateway into north-eastern Europe. The port of Gdansk is an example, reflecting the rapid development of its capacity, as well as its good business links. The largest global container line, Maersk Line, is its customer, and the shipping company now offers the facility as a port of call on some of its direct Asia-Europe services.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Business Environment
11
Economic
12
Political
13
Industry Forecast
14
Road
16
Table: Road Freight, 2010-2017
18
Rail
18
Table: Rail Freight, 2010-2017
21
Inland Waterway
21
Table: Poland Transport Network
21
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2010-2017
22
Air Freight
22
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
23
Maritime
24
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
24
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
24
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
25
Table: Poland's Main Import Partners (US$mn)
26
Table: Poland's Main Export Partners (US$mn)
26
Market Overview
27
Industry Trends And Developments
31
Multimodal/Logistics
31
Rail
31
Air
33
Maritime
33
Company Profile
35
PKP Cargo
35
DB Schenker Rail Polska
39
CTL Logistics
42
LOT Cargo
44
Regional Overview
47
Political Outlook
47
Domestic Politics
47
Table: Political Overview
48
Long-Term Political Outlook
49
Global Industry Overview
57
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
57
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
57
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
58
Refiners: Is The Party Over-
60
Jet Fuel: Middle East & Africa Remain Positive As Global Air Traffic Slumps
63
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
65
Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
65
Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
66
Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
66
Macroeconomic Forecasts
69
Table: Poland - Economic Activity, 2009 - 2016
74
Demographic Forecast
75
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
76
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
77
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
78
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
78
Methodology
79
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
79
Transport Industry
80
Sources
80

The Poland Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Poland Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Poland.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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