Business Monitor International


Poland Food & Drink Report

Published 02 October 2014

  • 142 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Poland Food & Drink Report

We hold a positive outlook on the Polish consumer over the next few years, after several years of sluggish growth. We expect real GDP growth of 2.8% in 2014 and 3.1% in 2015, which will be fuelled by strong private expenditure growth.

Household purchasing power will be driven by a combination of low inflation and employment growth. Our Country Risk team believes that there remains considerable slack in the labour market, and our Agribusiness team believes that there is little threat of high food inflation in the coming months. As such, we believe that there is considerable room left for private final consumption growth over the coming quarters.

Russia's ban on agricultural imports from EU countries will damage fruit and vegetables producers in particular in Poland, who export much of their produce to Russia. Fewer exports to Russia, however, is likely to drive down food price inflation in Poland which will be beneficial to consumers.

In particular, we highlight the beer and discount store sectors as areas for growth. We highlight Jeronimo Martins owned Biedronka as a potential outperformer.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

  • 2014 total food consumption growth (local currency): +3.1%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013-2018: +4.7%.

  • 2014 alcoholic drinks value sales (local currency): +3.4; CAGR to 2018: +5.0%.

  • 2014 soft drinks value sales (local currency): +6.3%; CAGR to 2018: +7.3%.

  • 2014 total MGR sales growth (in local currency terms): +3.9%; CAGR to 2018: +6.6%.

Key Industry Trends

Russia Bans Imports Of Agricultural Goods From EU: In August 2014, Russia banned imports of many agricultural goods from select countries, including those from the EU. Restrictions on the sale of these goods will particularly harm the producers of fruit and vegetables in Poland, who rely heavily on Russia for exports. However, the ban is also likely to reduce food price inflation for Polish consumers.

Biedronka Likely To Be Outperformer: We highlight Jeronimo Martins...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Food
8
Drink
10
Mass Grocery Retail
11
Industry Forecast
12
Consumer Outlook
12
Food
13
Food Consumption
13
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
14
Confectionery
14
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
15
Meat
17
Table: Bacon & Ham Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
17
Fish
18
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
19
Frozen Fruit & Vegetables
21
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
22
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
24
Dairy
26
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
26
Drink
32
Alcoholic Drinks
32
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
33
Soft Drinks
35
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
37
Hot Drinks
39
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
40
Mass Grocery Retail
42
Table: Poland Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Segment
43
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Format Type (as % of total)
44
Trade
44
Table: Trade Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018
45
Macroeconomic Forecasts
46
Economic Analysis
46
Real GDP By Expenditure Breakdown
46
Risks To Outlook
49
Table: Economic Activity (Poland 2009-2018)
50
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
51
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
51
Table: Central & Eastern Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q314
53
Poland Risk/Reward Ratings
56
Market Overview
57
Food
57
Food Consumption
57
Food Production
57
Confectionery
58
Canned Food
59
Meat Processing Industry
59
Dairy Industry
60
Drink
61
Alcoholic Drinks
61
Beer
61
Wine
61
Spirits
62
Soft Drinks
63
Hot Drinks
64
Mass Grocery Retail
65
Leading Retailers
66
Industry Trends And Developments
67
Food
67
Key Industry Trends And Developments
67
Drink
69
Key Industry Trends And Developments
69
Mass Grocery Retail
71
Key Industry Trends And Developments
71
Competitive Landscape
72
Table: Key Players - Poland's Food Sector
72
Table: Key Players - Poland's Drinks Sector
73
Table: Key Players - Poland's MGR Sector
75
Company Profile
77
Nestl- Polska
77
Agros Nova
79
Danone Polska
81
Makarony Polskie
83
Grupa Zywiec (Heineken)
85
SABMiller
86
Kofola-Hoop (Kofola Group)
88
Jer-nimo Martins Polska (Biedronka)
90
Tesco Polska
92
Global Industry Overview
94
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
106
Demographic Forecast
107
Demographic Outlook
107
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
108
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
109
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
110
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
110
Glossary
111
Food & Drink
111
Mass Grocery Retail
111
Methodology
113
Industry Forecast Methodology
113
Sector-Specific Methodology
114
Sources
114
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
115
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
116
Table: Weighting
117

The Poland Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Poland Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Poland.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc