We hold a positive outlook on the Polish consumer over the next few years, after several years of sluggish growth. We expect real GDP growth of 2.8% in 2014 and 3.1% in 2015, which will be fuelled by strong private expenditure growth.
Household purchasing power will be driven by a combination of low inflation and employment growth. Our Country Risk team believes that there remains considerable slack in the labour market, and our Agribusiness team believes that there is little threat of high food inflation in the coming months. As such, we believe that there is considerable room left for private final consumption growth over the coming quarters.
Russia's ban on agricultural imports from EU countries will damage fruit and vegetables producers in particular in Poland, who export much of their produce to Russia. Fewer exports to Russia, however, is likely to drive down food price inflation in Poland which will be beneficial to consumers.
In particular, we highlight the beer and discount store sectors as areas for growth. We highlight Jeronimo Martins owned Biedronka as a potential outperformer.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
2014 total food consumption growth (local currency): +3.1%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2013-2018: +4.7%.
2014 alcoholic drinks value sales (local currency): +3.4; CAGR to 2018: +5.0%.
2014 soft drinks value sales (local currency): +6.3%; CAGR to 2018: +7.3%.
2014 total MGR sales growth (in local currency terms): +3.9%; CAGR to 2018: +6.6%.
Key Industry Trends
Russia Bans Imports Of Agricultural Goods From EU: In August 2014, Russia banned imports of many agricultural goods from select countries, including those from the EU. Restrictions on the sale of these goods will particularly harm the producers of fruit and vegetables in Poland, who rely heavily on Russia for exports. However, the ban is also likely to reduce food price inflation for Polish consumers.
Biedronka Likely To Be Outperformer: We highlight Jeronimo Martins...
The Poland Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.
BMI's Poland Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Poland.
- Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish food and drink market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:
Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.
Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.
Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.
Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.
Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts
Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.
Competitive Landscape & Profiles
Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.