BMI View: W e have a positive outlook for the Poland consumer electronics market 2015-2018 based on our expectation for rising household purchasing power combined with declining device prices in key device categories . The Polish retail sector is exhibiting signs of strong growth, and we expect this to translate into demand for smartphones and tablet, which will drive the consumer electronics market. However, we have a bearish outlook for digital camera and notebook volumes in the short term, with these device categories under pressure from smartphone and tab let cannibalisation respectively. Our core scenario is for continued growth in consumer electronics spending, as we forecast a CAGR of 2.2 % 2015 -2018 .
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: USD3.9bn in 2014 to USD3.7bn in 2015, -4.5% in US dollar terms. Slight decline in tablet will add to the squeeze on market value from price erosion in the notebook market.
Handset S ales: USD3.3bn in 2014 to USD3.3bn in 2015, +1.9% in US dollar terms. Only segment forecast to grow in US dollar terms in 2015 as deepening smartphone ownership continues to drive value increases.
AV Sales: USD2.6bn in 2014 to USD2.6bn in 2015, -0.3% in US dollar terms. A slowdown in TV set sales due to demand being brought forward to 2014 by the FIFA World Cup will only be partially offset by a stabilisation in digital camera volumes.
Key Trends & Developments
The tablet market exhibited strong growth in Poland 2012-2014, surpassing volume sales of notebooks to become the largest device category in the PC market. Unlike in Western European markets, where Apple 's iPad dominates both in terms of installed base and sales, in Poland the market is more diverse. Browsing traffic data indicate Apple had a narrow lead over Samsung in terms of installed base in November 2014, but that the latter was on course to overtake it in Q115 and we estimate it was market leader in terms of sales. Other vendors...
The Poland Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Poland.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Poland Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Poland.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.