BMI View: Our positive outlook for the Poland consumer electronics market is based on rising household purchasing power, supported by a combination of low inflation and employment growth resulting in real wages increasing by 3.5% y-o-y in June. The Polish retail sector is exhibiting signs of strong growth, and we expect this to translate into demand for smartphones and tablet, which will drive the consumer electronics market. However, we have a bearish outlook for digital camera and notebook volumes in the short term, with these device categories under pressure from smartphone and tab let cannibalisation respectively. Our core scenario is for continued growth in consumer electronics spending, as we forecast a CAGR of 3.9% 2014-2018 . While there is risk from a slowdown from weaker external German demand and the deteriorating security situation in Ukraine, we don't believe these will be major factors in reducing consumer confidence for key consumer electronics products. Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: USD3.8bn in 2013 to USD4.0bn in 2014, 5.1% in US dollar terms. Unit growth is strong as tablet sales boom, but with consumers increasingly opting for low-cost sub-PLN600 tablets, value growth is more subdued.
Handset S ales: USD4.0bn in 2013 to USD4.1bn in 2014, +3.1% in US dollar terms. The market is forecast to exhibit slower growth in 2014 as price pressures in the Android ecosystem a squeeze on value growth.
AV Sales: USD2.5bn in 2013 to USD2.6bn in 2014, +5.5% in US dollar terms. The FIFA World Cup in 2014 is expected to provide a boost to TV set demand, including HD TV, 3D and smart TV models.
Key Trends & Developments
The tablet market in Poland boomed in 2012 and 2013 - and BMI estimates tablet unit sales surpassed notebook sales in 2013. This is in line with trends observed across the region, however one feature of the Polish market not reflected elsewhere in the region is the relative failure of Apple to...
The Poland Consumer Electronics Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering both the manufacture and sale of consumer electronics products, critically analysing - and forecasting - the market dynamics affecting each sub-sector, including audio-visual, computers, mobile handsets, gaming and automotives electronics. Furthermore, the report analyses the domestic and global economic trends driving device demand and provides company rankings and competitive landscapes covering leading multinational and national consumer electronics companies and analysis of latest industry news and trends in Poland.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Poland Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the consumer electronics industry in Poland.
- Benchmark BMI's independent consumer electronics industry forecasts for Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Polish consumer electronics market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in Poland through our reviews of latest industry trends and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit the latest competitive intelligence with company SWOT analyses.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering consumer electronics, major investments and projects.
Consumer Electronics Market
Analysis of the size of the domestic market for electronics products, with in-depth assessment and data covering the dynamics driving each sub-sector; audio-visual, computers, mobile phone handsets and gaming devices, as well as demand for automotives electronics.
Analysis and data of the domestic electronics manufacturing sector. We assess the regulatory and business operational issues facing manufacturers - including openness to foreign investment, infrastructure, IP issues and the global demand context - and their impact on the production of electronics goods, which is again broken down via market sub-sectors.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecast, covering computers, communications and gaming devices. Indicators include:
Industry value (US$bn); population (mn); nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita, industrial production Index (% y-o-y ave.) unemployment % of labour force.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's Consumer Electronics Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors and participants in the regional consumer electronics market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.