BMI View: We expect to see robust growth in the power sector in the Philippines, with total generation expected to expand by between 3% and 6% a year throughout our forecast period through to 2023. With recovery from the 2013 typhoon gathering pace, good domestic economic growth and a range of new projects being announced, overall the future is looking very positive for the Philippines power market.
The Philippines was struck by Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013, which caused widespread devastation, affecting 10% of the population and casing at least 10,000 deaths. A substantial portion of the country's infrastructure was affected, including power transmission and distribution networks. Geothermal and other power plants were also affected, and as such the last months of 2013 and the first months of early 2014 were largely consumed with recovery efforts. The islands of Samar and Leyte were particularly affected, and a great deal of recovery work remains to be done.
As such some of the new projects that were expected to commence in early 2014 were delayed. Despite these setbacks, we still expect to see growth in the longer term, with a range of new projects including coal fired plants and various renewable energy projects lending weight to higher growth forecasts. We expect that total electricity generation will growth by 3.48% in 2014, reaching 74.85TWh. Further growth throughout the forecast period means total generation is expected to reach 111.07TWh.
Thermal energy will continue to dominate the energy market in the Philippines, accounting for over 70% of total electricity generation in 2014. Healthy growth is expected across coal, natural gas and hydropower however we expect to see small declines in oil generation. The future is also looking bright for the non-hydropower renewables, expected to account for 14.25% of the total electricity mix by the end of the forecast period.
The growth in electricity generation means that we expect the Philippines will be able...
The Philippines Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Philippines Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Philippines's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.
The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:
Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).
Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.
Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).
This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.