BMI View: The Philippines' power sector continues to expand, with growth of between 3% and 5% expected throughout our current forecast period to 2018. Recovery following the widespread devastation of Typhoon Haiyan may hamper growth in the short term, but a range of projects in the pipeline means we see strong potential in the longer term, an outlook boosted by an increasingly positive domestic investment environment.
Typhoon Haiywan struck in November 2013 and its effects will be felt for some time to come. The disaster affected 10% of the population and caused at least 10,000 deaths. As well as the devastating human impact, the typhoon also destroyed wide swatches of the country's infrastructure, including taking down power transmission and distribution networks as well as impacting on geothermal and other power plants. The islands of Samar and Leyte were particularly affected, and a great deal of recovery work remains to be done. This recovery work is delaying a range of projects that were planned before the typhoon struck.
Despite the delays we still expect to see growth in the longer term, with construction expected to commence throughout 2014 on a range of projects including coal fired plants and various renewable energy projects.
Thanks to these projects we are forecasting that electricity generation in the Philippines will grow by 3.77% in 2014, reaching 75.21 terawatt hours (TWh). Highest growth will be seen in the renewable sector, at 9.42% growth in 2014, though renewable generation will continue to lag behind thermal, coal and gas generation. Oil-fired power stations will see their contribution to electricity generation decline slightly, by just under 0.03% in 2014, a decline we expect to continue in the next few years.
Consumption is also expected to increase throughout the forecast period at around 4% per year. We remain concerned at the Philippines' ability to match demand to supply, and as such the country's power situation will remain tenuous...
The Philippines Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Philippines Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
- Target business opportunities and risks Philippines's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.
The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:
Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).
Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.
Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).
This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.
BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.