Business Monitor International


Philippines Power Report

Published 09 December 2014

  • 82 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Philippines Power Report

BMI View: We expect to see robust growth in the power sector in the Philippines, with total generation expected to expand by an average by 4.3% during out ten-year forecast period until 2023. With recovery from the 2013 typhoon gathering pace, good domestic economic growth and a range of new projects being announced, overall the future is looking positive for the Philippines power market.

Notwithstanding the adverse effects that linger from Typhoon Haiayn that struck the Philippines in late 2013, we still expect to see growth in the longer term, with a range of projects including coal-fired plants and various renewable energy projects lending weight to higher growth forecasts. We expect total electricity generation growth of 3.55% in 2014, reaching 74.92TWh. Further growth throughout the forecast period means total generation is expected to reach 112.62TWh by 2023.

Thermal energy will continue to dominate the energy market in the Philippines, accounting for over 70% of total electricity generation in 2014. Healthy growth is expected across coal, natural gas and hydropower, however we expect to see small declines in oil generation. The future is also looking bright for the non-hydropower renewables sector, expected to account for 15.93% of the total electricity mix by 2023.

The growth in electricity generation means we expect the Philippines will be able to keep up with the expected increases in consumption, which we forecast will grow by about 4% a year, although the country is vulnerable to fluctuations and we believe the power situation will remain tenuous.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
10
Philippines Snapshot
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Philippines 2013-2018)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Philippines 2018-2023)
10
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
10
Philippines Power Forecast Scenario
11
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2017)
11
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2018-2023)
12
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2017)
13
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2018-2023)
14
Electricity Consumption
27
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2017)
27
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2018-2023)
27
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
29
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2017)
29
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2018-2023)
29
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Philippines Power Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Rewards
32
Risks
32
Asia Pacific Power Power Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Table: ASIA POWER RISK/REWARD RATINGS
37
Market Overview
39
Key Policies And Market Structure
39
Regulation And Competition
39
Sustainable Energy Policies
41
Pricing
41
Philippines Power Projects Database
43
Table: Key Projects Database
43
Competitive Landscape
58
Napocor
59
The National Transmission Corporation (TransCo)
60
First Gen
61
Aboitiz Power
61
Ayala Corporation
62
Mirant
62
Meralco
63
EDC
64
AES
64
Regional Overview
65
Asia Pacific Power Regional Overview
65
Table: FACT BOX: KEY STRATEGIES OF FOURTH BASIC ENERGY PLAN
67
Glossary
70
Table: Glossary Of Terms
70
Methodology
71
Methodology And Sources
71
Industry Forecast Methodology
71
Sources
74
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
74
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
75
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
77

The Philippines Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Philippines Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Philippines's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc