Business Monitor International


Philippines Petrochemicals Report

Published 08 October 2014

  • 81 pages
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$1,295.00
Philippines Petrochemicals Report

The Philippines' first cracker has witnessed a difficult start to operations with a temporary halt in mid-June 2014 when the facility broke down leading to a big fire, but BMI's latest Philippines Petrochemicals Report expects the facility to ramp up operations in H214 and facilitate strong polymers output growth in coming months.

The company was on the third phase of its plant commissioning when the accident occurred. The cracker restarted in early August 2014 and ordered 30,000 tonnes of naphtha for operations in September 2014 as it ramped up production. The mechanical set-back is not unusual when bringing cracker units into production.

In H114, the Philippines' value of production index (VaPI) for basic chemicals and industrial gases declined 13.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) following growth of just 0.8% in 2013. The VaPI for plastic also fell 0.9%, a decline that was largely ameliorated by a sharp 34% increase in output in February which was followed by four successive months of decline. Meanwhile, the rubber sector has seen its VaPI grow by an average of 15.4% y-o-y in H114. The expansion of JG Summit Petrochemicals Corporation's (JGSPC) PE and PP plants should help revive the performance of the plastics sector in H214.

  • Although economic growth was less than expected in Q114, the outlook is very positive and BMI expects GDP growth of 6.3% in 2014. With a rise in investment, strong domestic demand and a rebound in exports, the context for 2014 and beyond is supportive of petrochemicals market growth.

  • We see signs that local automotive manufacturing is slowly gaining traction and output volumes forecast to rise 13.5% in 2014, compared to a decline of 5.6% in 2013, with strong growth over the medium term. By 2018, vehicle production is expected to exceed 90,000 units, which should stimulate growth in consumption of engineering plastics and rubber.

  • Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) will be among those segments that will benefit from growth in the construction sector....

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Table: Philippines Petrochemicals, 2012-2018
15
Macroeconomic Forecasts
16
Investment To Continue Its Charge
16
Likely Recovery In The Export Sector
18
Typhoon Yolanda To Spur Public Spending
19
Remittances Supporting Private Consumption Growth
19
Risks To Economic Outlook
20
Table: Philippines - Economic Activity
21
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
22
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Philippines Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Market Overview
28
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Upstream
29
Company Profile
32
JG Summit Petrochemicals Corp
32
Table: JG Summit Financial Results - PHPmn
33
Petron Corporation
35
Table: Petron financial results - PHPmn
37
Regional Overview
38
Asia Overview
38
Short-Term Outlook
38
Preparing For Another Capacity Surge
40
Rapid Growth In South East Asia
41
Global Industry Overview
43
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
46
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
47
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
48
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
49
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
49
Diesel
51
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
51
New York's One-Off Heat Up
52
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
54
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
58
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
60
Risks To Outlook
64
Jet Fuel
65
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
65
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
65
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
67
Risks To Outlook
70
Bunker Fuel
71
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
71
The Storm Clears For Shipping
72
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
74
Long-Term Threats Linger
75
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
77
Risks To Outlook
78
Gasoline
78
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast, 2012-2018
78
Weak Q114 For Gasoline
79
Europe And The US: Competitive Market To Limit Summer Gains
80
Asia: Market Rebalancing To Better Support Market
83
Risks To Outlook
86
Demographic Forecast
87
Demographic Outlook
87
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
88
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
89
Table: The Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
90
Table: The Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
90
Glossary
91
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
91
Methodology
92
Industry Forecast Methodology
92
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
94
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
95
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
96

The Philippines Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Philippines Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Philippine petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc