Business Monitor International


Philippines Petrochemicals Report

Published 16 December 2014

  • 81 pages
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$1,295.00
Philippines Petrochemicals Report

The Philippines petrochemicals industry fell behind overall manufacturing growth in 2014, but is expected to recover in 2015 as the automotive and construction sectors post stronger growth rates and local producer JG Summit Petrochemicals Corporation (JGSPC) ramps up capacity utilisation at its new cracker complex, according to BMI's latest Philippines Petrochemicals Report.

In the first nine months of 2014, the value of chemicals output fell 16.8%, while plastic fell 4.5% and rubber grew 17.7%. Although performance was expected to improve as a result of JGSPC's expansion, the company's new cracker with 320,000tpa ethylene and 190,000tpa propylene capacities struggled to come into operation.

Operations were temporarily halted in mid-June 2014 when the facility broke down leading to a big fire. The company was on the third phase of its plant commissioning when the accident occurred. The cracker restarted in early August and ordered 30,000 tonnes of naphtha for operations in September as it ramped up production. However, by Q414 the cracker was still operating at only 70% of nameplate capacity due to weak domestic petrochemicals demand.

  • The Philippines petrochemicals market is set for strong growth in 2015 with the automotive sector stimulating demand for rubber and engineering plastics with 14.5% growth in output, while the construction sector raises consumption with real growth of 9.6%, increasing demand for polymer products.

  • The Bataan Refinery upgrade 2 project is due to come into full operation in Q115 with a new fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) unit, which will have a propylene production capacity of 250,000tpa. The project will also produce other by-products, such as petrochemicals feedstock - particularly propylene - which is to be sold to plastic producers. As a result, propylene production will grow by 200%.

  • In BMI's Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Index (RRI), the Philippines ranks 11th out of 12 countries, scoring 45.7 points, unchanged since the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Table: Philippines Petrochemicals, 2012-2018
15
Macroeconomic Forecasts
16
Economic Analysis
16
Remittances To Remain Supportive Of Private Consumption Growth
17
Modest Export Rebound On The Cards
18
Investment To Recover Amid Rising Business Confidence
19
Rebuilding Efforts To Spur Government Spending
20
Risks To Outlook
20
Table: Economic Activity (Philippines 2009-2018)
20
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Philippines Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Market Overview
22
Industry Trends And Developments
23
Upstream
23
Company Profile
26
JG Summit Petrochemicals Corp
26
Table: JG Summit Financial Results, PHPmn
27
Petron Corporation
29
Table: Petron Financial Results, PHPmn
31
Regional Overview
32
Asia Overview
32
Political and regulatory risks
32
Preparing For Another Capacity Surge
34
Rapid Growth In South East Asia
36
Global Industry Overview
38
Polymers Markets
40
Polymers Capacities
41
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
42
Latin America: The Main Loser In US Expansion Drive
42
Asia: New Growth Markets Fuel Global Demand
43
Challenges For The Arabian Gulf
44
Russia And CIS: Coming To The Fore
44
Gasoline: Crude Supporting Price
47
Table: BMI Gasoline Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
47
Political Risk Sends Prices Soaring
47
Upward Price Revision
49
Europe And The US:
49
Singapore: Strong Upside For Q314
51
Risks To Outlook
52
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
53
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
53
Supply Keeps Market Down
53
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
55
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
56
Risks To Outlook
59
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
60
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
60
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
65
Risks To Outlook
66
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
67
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
67
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
69
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
73
Risks To Outlook
74
Demographic Forecast
76
Demographic Outlook
76
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
77
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
78
Table: The Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
79
Table: The Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
79
Glossary
80
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
80
Methodology
81
Industry Forecast Methodology
81
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
83
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
84
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
85

The Philippines Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Philippines Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Philippine petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc