Business Monitor International


Philippines Petrochemicals Report

Published 11 March 2014

  • 81 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Philippines Petrochemicals Report

The opening of JP Summit's new naphtha cracker plant - with 320,000tpa ethylene capacity - should help overcome the main weakness in the Philippine petrochemicals industry, which is dependent on imported ethylene and propylene, as well as aromatics and their derivatives. Domestic supply of olefins feedstock should improve the competitiveness of downstream industries at a time when BMI expects a recovery in regional and global demand. There is potential to double capacity at the site. While capacity is modest by global standards, it does ensure that the Philippine petrochemicals industry will have a future, with potential for further investment and diversification.

The Philippine petrochemicals market continues to grow at a strong rate, assisted by economic growth and domestic consumption. In 2013, Philippine value of production index (VaPI) for chemicals production rose by over 110%, following growth of just 2% in the previous year. The VaPI for basic chemicals and industrial gases rose just 0.8%, while plastics were down 1.4% and rubber fell 5.4%. Plastics output volumes have been adversely affected by JG Summit Petrochemicals taking its PE plant offline for expansion and temporarily shutting its PP plant for upgrades.

  • Strong economic growth should help sustain the local market, thereby ensuring that the domestic petrochemicals industry remains buoyant and imports grow.

  • The automotive industry is one of the key consumers of petrochemicals products. Auto output volumes were up an estimated 14.5% in 2013, with strong growth over the medium term. By 2018, vehicle production is expected to exceed 100,000 units, which should stimulate growth in consumption of engineering plastics and rubber.

  • Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) will be among those segments that will benefit from growth in the construction sector. We remain bullish towards the Philippine construction sector, with real growth forecast to reach 11.9% in 2014, an upward revision from 10.1% forecast in the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Table: Philippines Petrochemicals, 2012-2018
14
Macroeconomic Forecasts
15
Economic Analysis
15
Overreliance On Electronics Continues To Recede
15
Q413 Data To Reflect Yolanda Impact, But Growth Cycle Still On Track
17
Growth Upgrades Warranted, With A Caveat
19
Expenditure Breakdown
19
Table: Philippines - Economic Activity
20
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Philippines Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Market Overview
26
Industry Trends And Developments
27
Upstream
27
Company Profile
30
JG Summit Petrochemicals Corp
30
Table: JG Summit Financial Results - PHPmn
31
Petron Corporation
33
Table: Petron financial results - PHPmn
35
Regional Overview
36
Asia Overview
36
Short-Term Outlook
36
Preparing For Another Capacity Surge
37
Rapid Growth In Southeast
39
Global Industry Overview
42
A Stable 2013, Leading To Growth In 2014-
42
Table: Top 10 Ethylene Producers, 2013
44
Long-Term Growth
44
Shale: The Future Of Feedstock-
46
Threats To growth
49
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
49
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
49
Methodology
52
Crude Price Forecasts
53
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
53
Oil Product Price Forecasts
53
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
54
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
55
Weak Demand Persists
56
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
56
Quarterly Prices
60
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
60
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
61
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
63
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
69
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
71
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
71
Risks To Outlook
73
Demographic Forecast
74
Demographic Outlook
74
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
75
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
76
Table: The Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
77
Table: The Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
77
Glossary
78
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms
78
Methodology
79
Industry Forecast Methodology
79
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
81
Table: Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
82
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
83

The Philippines Petrochemicals Report has been researched at source, and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for key petrochemicals sub-sectors. The report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing companies by products and services, sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Philippines Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine petrochemicals industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent petrochemicals industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Philippine petrochemicals market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine petrochemicals sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering petrochemicals markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Petrochemicals Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (both corporate and financial) in the regional petrochemicals market.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Industry Trends & Developments

Evaluation of company and sector-wide developments, including key projects (as well as expansion plans), latest company financial details and proposed international ventures.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series (2009-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and economic indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key risks to the main forecasts. Indicators include:

Energy: Oil production (`000 b/d), oil consumption (`000 b/d), net oil exports (`000 b/d), gas production (bcm), gas consumption (bcm), net gas exports (bcm), oil refinery capacity (`000 b/d).

Petrochemicals: Ethylene capacity (`000 tpa), ethylene production (`000 tpa), ethylene consumption (`000 tpa), polyethylene capacity (`000 tpa), polypropylene capacity (`000 tpa), polyvinyl chloride capacity (`000 tpa), polyolefins consumption (`000 tpa).

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for all major oil-based products (US$/bbl) at major global energy trading hubs.

Economic: Nominal GDP (US$bn), real GDP growth (%), GDP per capita (US$), population (mn), unemployment (%), exchange rate (against US$).

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc