Business Monitor International


Philippines Oil & Gas Report

Published 23 September 2014

  • 127 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Philippines Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   The Philippines will likely remain a small producer of both oil and gas over our forecast period. Faster consumption growth than output increases will see the Philippines remain a net importer of crude oil and oil products, as well as join ing the ranks of gas importers in the world.    

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector are:

  • We forecast relatively stagnant growth in the Philippines' oil and gas reserves, owing to the limited number of discoveries made.

  • Crude oil production may increase between 2014 and 2018 thanks to new projects coming online, but without further discoveries this could again fall from 2018.

  • Gas production is set rise slightly as ongoing developments help to stabilise production at the key Malampaya gas field. However, there are no new projects to boost Philippines' gas production further.

  • Although refining capacity will remain flat, upgrades to the country's two refineries will help improve utilisation rates and refined oil output over our forecast period.

  • Oil consumption will likely trend upwards over the long-term alongside economic growth.

  • The shortfall of domestic crude and domestic refined oil to demand will see the Philippines continue as a net importer of both crude and refined oil.

  • Gas consumption will see greater growth than oil as it becomes an increasingly important source of fuel for power generation.

  • The start-up of an LNG import terminal at Pagbilao and a likely project at Batagas will allow the Philippines' gas demand to grow beyond domestic gas output. However, we note that infrastructure delays risks pushing back the country's gas demand growth beyond our forecast period.

Headline Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 23.0 24.0 28.4 28.4 33.5 40.7 43.2
Refined products production & ethanol,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Philippines
10
Table: Philippines Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data 2, 2018-2023
11
Table: Philippines: Basins And Exploration Results To Date
13
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Philippines Oil Production and Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Philippines Oil Production and Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Refining And Products Trade
20
Table: Philippines Refining - Production and Consumption, 2012-2017
20
Table: Philippines Refining - Production and Consumption, 2018-2023
21
Gas Supply And Demand
24
Table: Philippines Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports
24
Table: Philippines Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports
25
LNG
28
Other Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
32
The Upstream Leaders
32
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
35
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Downstream Support
37
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Philippines - Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Philippines Upstream Rating - Overview
43
Philippines Upstream Rating - Rewards
43
Philippines Upstream Rating - Risks
43
Philippines Downstream Rating - Overview
43
Market Overview
45
Philippines Energy Market Overview
45
Overview/State Role
47
Licensing And Regulation
48
Government Policy
50
Table: Industry Targets As Set In PEP (2012-2030)
50
Licensing Rounds
52
Table: PECR-5: Available Licences
53
International Energy Relations
54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
56
Oil Refineries
56
Table: Downstream Projects
56
Oil Storage Facilities
57
Service Stations
58
Oil Terminals/Ports
58
LNG Terminals
58
Gas Pipelines
60
Competitive Landscape
63
Competitive Landscape Summary
63
Table: Key Players - Philippines Oil And Gas Sector
64
Company Profile
65
Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC)
65
Petron
70
Shell Philippines
73
Chevron Philippines
77
Nido Petroleum
80
Other Summaries
84
Regional Overview
89
Asia Overview
89
The World's Largest Oil Guzzler
89
Tightening In The Downstream
93
Gas Market Potential Set To Outshine Oil
97
A Hot Market For LNG
101
The Centre Of The LNG Price Debate
104
Global Industry Overview
106
Global Energy Market Overview
106
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
108
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
109
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
110
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
112
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
112
Appendix
115
Asia - Regional Appendix
115
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
118
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
119
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
120
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
121
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
122
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
122
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
123
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
124
Philippines - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecast
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
129
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
130
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
131
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
132
Glossary
134
Table: Glossary Of Terms
134
Methodology
136
Industry Forecast Methodology
136
Source
138
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
138
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
140
Table: Weighting
141

The Philippines Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Philippines including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Philippines Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Philippines to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc