Business Monitor International


Philippines Oil & Gas Report

Published 22 January 2014

  • 127 pages
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$1,295.00
Philippines Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The Philippines' oil and gas market is small but growing, marked by an expected short-term increase in both liquids and gas production, although it will still be insufficient to meet growing domestic demand. Longer-term growth will be dependent on results from ongoing and short-term exploration. Consumption is also expected to rise on the back of economic growth, and the government's promotion of gas use. However, we note that infrastructure and supply constraints could limit the country's gas demand growth in the longer term. The need to build up its gas infrastructure considerably provides a market opportunity for the midstream.

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector are:

  • Total liquids production is set to rise, with new volumes brought online by the Phase II development of the Galoc field, redevelopment of the Cadlao field and sustained output from the Malampaya gas condensate field. These underlie our forecast for the Philippines' crude oil production to rise from 23,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to hit a peak of 38,700b/d in 2019. Thereafter, without other new fields in commercial production, we expect output to fall slightly to around 34,700b/d by 2022 due to the natural rate of resource depletion. A final investment decision on the West Linapacan oil project poses a significant upside risk to our forecast.

  • Robust GDP growth rates of about 5.02% per annum, as projected by our Country Risk team through our 10-year forecast period, back our expectations for continued growth in oil consumption to 335,200b/d in 2018 and 370,700b/d by 2023 - a more modest average annual increase of 2.22% than our GDP projections due to expectations for slower rises in transport demand and gains in energy efficiency.

  • We expect maintenance to see refinery utilisation rate below 60% in 2013 and 2014 but a gradual increase beyond 60% from 2015, when Petron's refinery completes its modernisation. Hence, total...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Table: Philippines Upstream Projects
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Philippines Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Philippines Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Philippines Oil Production And Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
15
Table: Philippines Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecast, 2018-2023
15
Refining And Products Trade
20
Table: Philippines Refining - Production And Consumption Estimate & Forecast, 2012-2017
20
Table: Philippines Refining - Production And Consumption Long-Term Forecast, 2018-2023
20
Gas Supply And Demand
23
Table: Philippines Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
23
Table: Philippines Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
24
LNG
27
Other Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
28
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
30
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
31
The Upstream Leaders
31
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
33
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Downstream Support
35
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Philippines - Risk/Reward Ratings
40
Philippines Upstream Rating - Overview
40
Philippines Upstream Rating - Rewards
40
Philippines Upstream Rating - Risks
40
Philippines Downstream Rating - Overview
40
Market Overview
42
Philippines Energy Market Overview
42
Overview/State Role
44
Licensing And Regulation
45
Government Policy
47
Table: Industry Targets As Set In PEP (2012-2030)
47
Licensing Rounds
49
International Energy Relations
50
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
53
Oil Refineries
53
Table: Downstream Projects
53
Oil Storage Facilities
54
Service Stations
54
Oil Terminals/Ports
55
LNG Terminals
55
Gas Pipelines
57
Competitive Landscape
60
Competitive Landscape Summary
60
Table: Key Players - Philippines Oil And Gas Sector
61
Company Profile
62
Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC)
62
Petron
67
Shell Philippines
71
Chevron Philippines
75
Nido Petroleum
78
Other Summaries
82
Regional Overview
87
Asia Overview
87
Gas Is Hot
87
Locking Eyes On Gas Production
90
Australia's LNG Roadblocks Open Up New Opportunities Elsewhere
91
Asia Fights Against LNG Prices
93
Seeking An Unconventional Rescue
96
Coalbed Methane: Underrated Potential
99
Refining Woes
99
Global Industry Overview
103
Appendix
110
Asia - Regional Appendix
110
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
112
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
113
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
114
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
115
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
116
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
116
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
117
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
118
Glossary
119
Table: Glossary Of Terms
119
Methodology
121
Industry Forecast Methodology
121
Source
123
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
123
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
125
Table: Weighting
127

The Philippines Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Philippines including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Philippines Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Philippines to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc