Business Monitor International


Philippines Oil & Gas Report

Published 23 September 2014

  • 127 pages
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$1,295.00
Philippines Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:   The Philippines will likely remain a small producer of both oil and gas over our forecast period. Faster consumption growth than output increases will see the Philippines remain a net importer of crude oil and oil products, as well as join ing the ranks of gas importers in the world.    

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector are:

  • We forecast relatively stagnant growth in the Philippines' oil and gas reserves, owing to the limited number of discoveries made.

  • Crude oil production may increase between 2014 and 2018 thanks to new projects coming online, but without further discoveries this could again fall from 2018.

  • Gas production is set rise slightly as ongoing developments help to stabilise production at the key Malampaya gas field. However, there are no new projects to boost Philippines' gas production further.

  • Although refining capacity will remain flat, upgrades to the country's two refineries will help improve utilisation rates and refined oil output over our forecast period.

  • Oil consumption will likely trend upwards over the long-term alongside economic growth.

  • The shortfall of domestic crude and domestic refined oil to demand will see the Philippines continue as a net importer of both crude and refined oil.

  • Gas consumption will see greater growth than oil as it becomes an increasingly important source of fuel for power generation.

  • The start-up of an LNG import terminal at Pagbilao and a likely project at Batagas will allow the Philippines' gas demand to grow beyond domestic gas output. However, we note that infrastructure delays risks pushing back the country's gas demand growth beyond our forecast period.

Headline Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2018)
  2012e 2013e 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 23.0 24.0 28.4 28.4 33.5 40.7 43.2
Refined products production & ethanol,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2018)
7
SWOT
8
Oil&Gas SWOT
8
Industry Forecast
9
Upstream Exploration
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Philippines 2012-2017)
9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (Philippines 2018-2023)
9
Table: Philippines: Basins And Exploration Results To Date
11
Upstream Projects
13
Table: Philippines Major Upstream Projects
13
Upstream Production - Oil
14
Table: Oil Production (Philippines 2012-2017)
14
Table: Oil Production (Philippines 2018-2023)
14
Upstream Production - Gas
19
Table: Gas Production (Philippines 2012-2017)
19
Table: Gas Production (Philippines 2018-2023)
19
Refining
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Philippines 2012-2017)
22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Philippines 2018-2023)
22
Refined Products Consumption
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Philippines 2012-2017)
25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Philippines 2018-2023)
25
Gas Consumption
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Philippines 2012-2017)
28
Table: Gas Consumption (Philippines 2018-2023)
28
Trade - Oil
31
Crude Oil Trade
31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Philippines 2012-2017)
31
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Philippines 2018-2023)
31
Refined Oil Trade
34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Philippines 2012-2017)
34
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Philippines 2018-2023)
34
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Philippines 2012-2017)
37
Table: Total Net Oil Exports - Crude and Products (Philippines 2018-2023)
37
Trade - Gas (Pipeline and LNG)
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Philippines 2012-2017)
38
Table: Gas Net Exports (Philippines 2018-2023)
39
Supply Sources
41
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
43
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
44
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
48
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Downstream Support
50
Philippines - Risk/Reward Ratings
53
Philippines Upstream Rating - Overview
53
Philippines Upstream Rating - Rewards
53
Philippines Upstream Rating - Risks
53
Philippines Downstream Rating - Overview
53
Market Overview
55
Philippines Energy Market Overview
55
Overview/State Role
57
Licensing And Regulation
58
Government Policy
60
Table: Industry Targets As Set In PEP (2012-2030)
60
Licensing Rounds
62
Table: PECR-5: Available Licences
63
International Energy Relations
64
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
66
Oil Refineries
66
Table: Downstream Projects
66
Oil Storage Facilities
67
Service Stations
67
Oil Terminals/Ports
68
LNG Terminals
68
Gas Pipelines
70
Competitive Landscape
73
Competitive Landscape Summary
73
Table: Key Players - Philippines Oil And Gas Sector
74
Company Profile
75
Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC)
75
Petron
79
Shell Philippines
82
Chevron Philippines
86
Nido Petroleum
89
Other Summaries
93
Regional Overview
97
Asia Overview
97
Slower Oil Consumption Growth
97
Significant Oil Importer Still
100
Tightening In The Downstream
102
Gas Demand Growth To Outshine Oil
104
Gas Production And Export Rise
105
Asia To Absorb Gas Export Growth
107
A Hot Market For LNG
108
Strategies To Lower LNG Prices
111
Sino-Russian Gas Deal Promises Softer Prices
112
Global Industry Overview
113
Global Energy Market Overview
113
Appendix
119
Global - Crude Oil, Refined Fuels And Natural Gas Prices, 10-year Forecasts
119
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2012-2017
119
Table: Energy Price Forecasts, 2018-2023
120
Asia - Regional Appendix
122
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
122
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
123
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
123
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
124
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
125
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
126
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
127
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
128
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
128
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
129
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
130
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
131
Philippines - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecast
133
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Philippines 2012-2017)
133
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown (Philippines 2018-2023)
134
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Philippines 2012-2017)
135
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown (Philippines 2018-2023)
136
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Philippines 2012-2017)
137
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown (Philippines 2018-2023)
138
Philippines - Total Hydrocarbons, 10-year Forecasts
139
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Philippines 2012-2017)
139
Table: Total Hydrocarbons Production, Consumption and Net Exports (Philippines 2018-2023)
139
Glossary
141
Table: Glossary Of Terms
141
Methodology
143
Industry Forecast Methodology
143
Source
145
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
145
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
147
Table: Weighting
148

The Philippines Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Philippines including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Philippines Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Philippines to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc