Business Monitor International


Philippines Oil & Gas Report

Published 30 May 2014

  • 127 pages
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$1,295.00
Philippines Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The Philippines is set to see growth in both oil and gas consumption, on the back of economic growth, and the government's promotion of gas use . This will be supported by rising imports rather than greater domestic output, though exploration poses upside production risks towards the tail-end of our forecast period. Infrastructure availability poses the biggest upside risk to our forecast. The need to build up its gas infrastructure considerably provides a market opportunity for the midstream segment, subject to the eradication of government roadblocks .

The main trends and developments we highlight for the Philippines' oil and gas sector are:

  • Total liquids production is set to rise, with new volumes brought online by the Phase II development of the Galoc field, redevelopment of the Cadlao field and sustained output from the Malampaya gas condensate field. These underlie our forecast for the Philippines' crude oil production to rise from 23,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to hit 43,190b/d in 2018. Thereafter, without other new fields in commercial production, we expect output to fall slightly to around 29,770b/d by 2023 due to the natural rate of resource depletion. A final investment decision on the West Linapacan oil project poses a significant upside risk to our forecast. Robust GDP growth rates of about 5.02% per annum, as projected by our Country Risk team through our 10-year forecast period, back our expectations for continued growth in oil consumption to 321,890b/d in 2018 and 355,980b/d by 2023.

  • We expect maintenance to see refinery utilisation rate below 60% in 2013 and 2014 but a gradual increase beyond 60% from 2015, when Petron's refinery completes its modernisation. Hence, total refined petroleum product output is forecast to rise from 164,700b/d - according to figures from the DOE - in 2012 to 175,900b/d in 2018.

  • Nonetheless, domestic consumption growth will still see an increase in its refined product import requirement...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Philippines
10
Table: Philippines Proven Oil and Gas Reserves and Total Petroleum Data 2, 2018-2023
11
Table: Philippines: Basins And Exploration Results To Date
13
Oil Supply And Demand
15
Table: Philippines Oil Production and Net Exports, 2012-2017
15
Table: Philippines Oil Production and Net Exports, 2018-2023
16
Refining And Products Trade
20
Table: Philippines Refining - Production and Consumption, 2012-2017
20
Table: Philippines Refining - Production and Consumption, 2018-2023
21
Gas Supply And Demand
24
Table: Philippines Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports
24
Table: Philippines Gas Production, Consumption & Net Exports
25
LNG
28
Other Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
29
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
32
The Upstream Leaders
32
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
35
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Downstream Support
37
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
42
Philippines - Risk/Reward Ratings
43
Philippines Upstream Rating - Overview
43
Philippines Upstream Rating - Rewards
43
Philippines Upstream Rating - Risks
43
Philippines Downstream Rating - Overview
43
Market Overview
45
Philippines Energy Market Overview
45
Overview/State Role
47
Licensing And Regulation
48
Government Policy
50
Table: Industry Targets As Set In PEP (2012-2030)
50
Licensing Rounds
52
Table: PECR-5: Available Licences
53
International Energy Relations
54
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
56
Oil Refineries
56
Table: Downstream Projects
56
Oil Storage Facilities
57
Service Stations
58
Oil Terminals/Ports
58
LNG Terminals
58
Gas Pipelines
60
Competitive Landscape
63
Competitive Landscape Summary
63
Table: Key Players - Philippines Oil And Gas Sector
64
Company Profile
65
Philippine National Oil Company (PNOC)
65
Petron
70
Shell Philippines
73
Chevron Philippines
77
Nido Petroleum
80
Other Summaries
84
Regional Overview
89
Asia Overview
89
The World's Largest Oil Guzzler
89
Tightening In The Downstream
93
Gas Market Potential Set To Outshine Oil
97
A Hot Market For LNG
101
The Centre Of The LNG Price Debate
104
Global Industry Overview
106
Global Energy Market Overview
106
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
108
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
109
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
110
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
112
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
112
Appendix
115
Asia - Regional Appendix
115
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
115
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
116
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
117
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
118
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
119
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
120
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
121
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
122
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
122
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
123
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
124
Philippines - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-Year Forecast
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
126
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
127
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
129
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
130
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
131
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
132
Glossary
134
Table: Glossary Of Terms
134
Methodology
136
Industry Forecast Methodology
136
Source
138
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
138
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
140
Table: Weighting
141

The Philippines Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Philippines including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Philippines Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Philippines to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Philippine oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc