Business Monitor International


Philippines Freight Transport Report

Published 03 March 2014

  • 82 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Philippines Freight Transport Report

Despite the devastating result of Typhoon Yolanda on the Visayas (the impact of which was felt by the country's freight industry), the Philippines does have a lot going for it over the medium term. Political stability and prudent monetary and fiscal policies are all combining to inform BMI's optimistic outlook. Therefore, we have upgraded our 2014 real GDP growth forecast to 6.3% (from 6.0% previously), and also see scope for the economy's long-term trend growth rate to increase as long as the aforementioned factors remain in play.

The Philippine economy expanded by 7.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q3 2013, bringing real GDP growth through the first three quarters of the year to 7.4% versus the same period in 2012. This is a far higher growth level than that seen in the shipping sector in the Philippines, with the country's top port by tonnage throughput, the Port of Cebu, pencilled in for growth of just over 3% in 2014. Elsewhere in the freight mix, air freight will enjoy slower growth than GDP but at a still healthy 5.59%.

Although the country's freight industry will not grow at quite the same rate as GDP in 2014, both air and maritime freight are set to enjoy a healthy 12 months, with the former mode set to expand at the highest rate per annum. In the maritime sector, the Port of MICT is pencilled in to see higher y-o-y growth in 2014 than its regional peer the Port of Cebu (4.89% compared with 3.30% respectively).

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 air freight tonnage forecast to grow 5.59% to 755,000 tonnes.

  • 2014 Port of Cebu tonnage throughput forecast to rise by 3.30% to 29.05mn tonnes.

  • 2014 Port of MICT tonnage throughput forecast to increase 4.89% to 22.05mn tonnes.

  • 2014 total trade forecast to grow 5.30%, with exports growing 5.10% compared with import growth of 5.50%.

Key Industry Trends

PAL Relaunches Saudi Arabia Service: Philippines Airlines (PAL) resumed its Manila-Riyadh and Manila-Dammam service, the Philippine Embassy said in a press statement...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
12
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Cargo
15
Table: Cargo, 2011-2018
16
Air Freight
16
Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018
17
Maritime Freight
17
Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
17
Road & Rail Freight
18
Trade
19
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
19
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
19
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2012
20
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012
21
Market Overview
22
Industry Trends And Developments
27
Air Freight
27
Road Freight
28
Maritime Freight
29
Company Profile
31
International Container Terminal Services, Inc (ICTSI)
31
MCC Transport
35
Political Outlook
38
Domestic Politics
38
Positive Trajectory Reflected By Rising FDI Inflows
39
Further Relaxation Of FDI Restrictions Necessary
40
Long-Term Political Outlook
41
Table: Table: Philippines Political Overview
44
Oil Price Outlook
46
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
46
Table: 2013 Oil Product Price Forecast Record
46
Methodology
48
Crude Price Forecasts
49
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
49
Oil Product Price Forecasts
49
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecast, US$/bbl
50
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
51
Weak Demand Persists
52
Supply: Global Capacity Supports Demand
52
Quarterly Prices
56
Table: BMI Refined Oil Products Quarterly Forecast, US$/bbl
56
Naphtha: Long-Term Growth Faces Headwinds From Gas
57
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Gasoline Weakness To Continue
59
Jet Fuel: Downward Movement Capped By Recovery
65
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
67
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
67
Risks To Outlook
69
Macroeconomic Forecasts
70
Economic Analysis
70
Overreliance On Electronics Continues To Recede
70
Q413 Data To Reflect Yolanda Impact, But Growth Cycle Still On Track
72
Growth Upgrades Warranted, With A Caveat
74
Expenditure Breakdown
74
Table: Philippines - Economic Activity
75
Demographic Forecast
76
Demographic Outlook
76
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
77
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
78
Table: The Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
79
Table: The Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
79
Methodology
80
Industry Forecast Methodology
80
Sector-Specific Methodology
81
Sources
82

The Philippines Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Philippines Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc