Business Monitor International


Philippines Freight Transport Report

Published 02 June 2014

  • 82 pages
 
$1,295.00
Philippines Freight Transport Report

We are forecasting real GDP growth of 6.3% for the Philippines in 2014, as we expect domestic demand to remain strong and export sector growth to see a modest rebound this year. While we are optimistic about its growth prospect, we remain wary of any renewed global volatility that will pose downside risks to our growth forecast.

Despite the devastating impact of Typhoon Yolanda in the Visayas back in November, the Philippines' real GDP growth for the final quarter (October-December period) still managed to come in at a reasonably healthy clip of 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), and this is largely attributed to the strong growth seen in the manufacturing and services sectors, which grew by 12.3% y-o-y and 6.5% y-o-y in the quarter respectively. In turn, full-year GDP growth arrived at an impressive 7.2%, making the Philippines one of the fastest growing economies in Asia.

Going forward, we remain optimistic about the prospect of a continuation in the current growth momentum, as we believe domestic demand will remain strong and the export sector will likely see a rebound this year. Indeed, manufacturing sector growth is likely to continue from where it left off last year. As such, we are forecasting real GDP growth of 6.3% for the Philippines this year.

The freight mix in the Philippines is set to enjoy healthy growth levels in 2014. The air and shipping freight sectors are set to enjoy a good 12 months, with the former mode set to expand at the highest rate per annum (5.58% y-o-y). In the shipping sector, the Port of Cebu is pencilled in to see higher y-o-y tonnage growth in 2014 than its regional peer the Port of MICT (4.50% compared with 4.00% respectively).

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 air freight tonnage forecast to grow 5.58% to 755,000 tonnes.

  • 2014 Port of Cebu tonnage throughput forecast to rise by 4.50% to 29.39mn tonnes.

  • 2014 Port of MICT tonnage throughput forecast to increase 4.00% to 21.76mn tonnes.

  • 2014 total trade forecast to grow 5.30%, with exports...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Business Environment
12
Economic
13
Political
14
Industry Forecast
16
Cargo
16
Table: Cargo, 2010-2017
17
Air Freight
18
Table: Air Freight, 2010-2017
18
Maritime
18
Table: Maritime Freight, 2010-2017
19
Road And Rail Freight
20
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview, 2010-2017
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2010-2017
22
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
23
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
23
Market Overview
24
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Maritime
29
Air
29
Road
30
Multimodal
30
Company Profile
32
International Container Terminal Services, Inc (ICTSI)
32
MCC Transport
35
Regional Overview
38
Political Outlook
38
Domestic Politics
38
Table: Philippines Political Overview
40
Long-Term Political Outlook
41
Global Industry Overview
44
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
44
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl)
44
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts
45
Refiners: Is The Party Over-
47
Jet Fuel: Middle East & Africa Remain Positive As Global Air Traffic Slumps
50
Table: Total Air Freight & Passenger Volumes
52
Gasoline And Diesel: Demand Destruction Takes A Toll
52
Naphtha: Asia Stays Afloat While Europe Sinks
53
Bunker Fuels: Trans-Pacific Route Rebound Amid High Prices
53
Macroeconomic Forecasts
56
Bullish Signals For Investment
58
FDI Set To Improve, But Still Has A Long Way To Go
59
(Un)Ease Of Doing Business
60
Expenditure Breakdown
61
Table: Philippines - Economic Activity
62
Demographic Forecast
63
Table: Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
64
Table: Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
65
Table: Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
66
Table: Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
66
Methodology
67
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
67
Transport Industry
68
Sources
68

The Philippines Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Philippines Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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