The Philippines' decision to seek international arbitration in its maritime dispute with China will raise tensions between the two countries, and could accelerate US efforts to 'pivot' towards Asia. The dispute also increases the risk of Beijing imposing economic sanctions on the Philippines, which would pose downside risks for our 6.3% real GDP growth forecast in 2014. We continue to hold a positive outlook for the economy, and maintain our forecast for real GDP growth of 6.3% in 2014, as investment is likely to pick up and the export sector should see a modest rebound this year.
The freight mix in the Philippines is anticipated to register relatively healthy growth over the short and medium term. Air freight's annual growth is set to rise in 2014 from last year (5.58% year-on-year (y-o-y) compared to 2013's 4.34%). Meanwhile, the Port of Cebu is pencilled in to see higher y-o-y tonnage growth in 2014 than its regional peer the Port of MICT (4.50% compared with 4.00% respectively).
Headline Industry Data
2014 air freight tonnage forecast to grow 5.58% to 755,000 tonnes.
2014 port of Cebu tonnage throughput forecast to rise by 4.50% to 31.96mn tonnes.
2014 port of MICT tonnage throughput forecast to increase 4.00% to 21.76mn tonnes.
2014 total trade forecast to grow 5.30%, with exports growing 5.10% compared with import growth of 5.50%.
Key Industry Trends
DHL Partners Four Logistics Depots : Germany's DHL has partnered four GMP-compliant clinical trial supply depots in Belarus, Egypt, Philippines and Turkey, it was reported by Outsourcing Pharma.com at the beginning of June 2014. The logistics company has incorporated the Turkey depot, which it already owned as a domestic depot, into its global supply network, and formed partnerships with the companies in Belarus, Egypt and Philippines to bring their facilities on board.
Transportation Department Postpones ITS Bidding To August : An auction for the Integrated Transport System (ITS) Southwest...
The Philippines Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Philippines Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.