Despite some signs of life in the Philippines' trade outlook, we caution that a relatively middling outlook for demand from the world's largest economies, as well as the cyclical nature of global semiconductor demand, suggest that an export recovery will likely be transitory. On the other side of the ledger, we note that the Philippines will remain somewhat beholden to hot money flows as speculation over US monetary policy continues to run high, and that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) may look to adjust its policy measures in kind.
Philippine exports have shown some nascent signs of life recently, posting their second straight monthly year-on-year (y-o-y) expansion in July 2013. Indeed, the 2.3% y-o-y growth in outward bound shipments marked the first time since December 2012 that exports expanded for at least two straight months, reflecting their poor performance throughout the course of H1 2013. Electronics exports in particular proved to be a key outperformer in July 2013, jumping by a healthy 11.2% y-o-y following a 2.2% contraction in June 2013.
With that in mind, our forecasts for 2014 across the freight modes are healthy with air freight set to be the outperformer this year with y-o-y growth anticipated to come in at 5.66% to reach 755,000 tonnes.
Headline Industry Data
2014 air freight tonnage forecast to grow 5.66% to 755,000 tonnes.
2014 Port of Cebu tonnage throughput forecast to rise by 3.30% to 29.05mn tonnes.
2014 Port of MICT tonnage throughput forecast to increase 5.30% to 22.14mn tonnes.
2014 total trade forecast to grow 5.75%, with exports growing 5.50% compared with import growth of 6.00%.
Key Industry Trends
Consortia Prequalify For US$821.8mn Manila Expressway Construction - Four companies or consortia have successfully met the prequalification requirements for a Philippine expressway construction project, reported Inter Aksyon at the end of October 2013. They are Alloy MTD Philippines, MPCALA Holdings, Optimal...
The Philippines Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Philippines Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.