Despite the devastating result of Typhoon Yolanda on the Visayas (the impact of which was felt by the country's freight industry), the Philippines does have a lot going for it over the medium term. Political stability and prudent monetary and fiscal policies are all combining to inform BMI's optimistic outlook. Therefore, we have upgraded our 2014 real GDP growth forecast to 6.3% (from 6.0% previously), and also see scope for the economy's long-term trend growth rate to increase as long as the aforementioned factors remain in play.
The Philippine economy expanded by 7.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q3 2013, bringing real GDP growth through the first three quarters of the year to 7.4% versus the same period in 2012. This is a far higher growth level than that seen in the shipping sector in the Philippines, with the country's top port by tonnage throughput, the Port of Cebu, pencilled in for growth of just over 3% in 2014. Elsewhere in the freight mix, air freight will enjoy slower growth than GDP but at a still healthy 5.59%.
Although the country's freight industry will not grow at quite the same rate as GDP in 2014, both air and maritime freight are set to enjoy a healthy 12 months, with the former mode set to expand at the highest rate per annum. In the maritime sector, the Port of MICT is pencilled in to see higher y-o-y growth in 2014 than its regional peer the Port of Cebu (4.89% compared with 3.30% respectively).
Headline Industry Data
2014 air freight tonnage forecast to grow 5.59% to 755,000 tonnes.
2014 Port of Cebu tonnage throughput forecast to rise by 3.30% to 29.05mn tonnes.
2014 Port of MICT tonnage throughput forecast to increase 4.89% to 22.05mn tonnes.
2014 total trade forecast to grow 5.30%, with exports growing 5.10% compared with import growth of 5.50%.
Key Industry Trends
PAL Relaunches Saudi Arabia Service: Philippines Airlines (PAL) resumed its Manila-Riyadh and Manila-Dammam service, the Philippine Embassy said in a press statement...
The Philippines Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Philippines Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Philippine freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.