Business Monitor International


Philippines Defence & Security Report

Published 08 October 2014

  • 74 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Philippines Defence & Security Report

BMI View:   While opportunities exist in the Philippines defence market in the short term, opportunities in the medium-to-long term are far from certain. Although the defence spending is increasing, there is a need to place it within a regional perspective. We think that the risk of Philippine involvement in an interstate conflict has increased slightly over the last quarter. Also, the scaling back of US support for the Philippines counter-terrorism program may not bode well in the long term.

Relations with China further deteriorated following the Philippines sentencing of 12 Chinese fisherman arrested for illegal fishing in non-disputed waters. Another trial of Chinese fishermen for supposed activity near the disputed Spratly Islands risks aggravating further tensions between the two countries.  BMI thinks that these incidents demonstrate the Philippines readiness to respond to what it perceives as Chinese aggression.

This readiness to respond to China is also evident from the increases in the defence budget directed at both personnel and equipment. While the air force still lacks fighter jets, the acquisition of 12 FA-50 attack/fighter aircraft as well as 8 attack AW 1090 Power helicopters does provide it with minimum offensive capabilities. The Philippines Navy is also aiming to boost its offensive capabilities through procurement of armaments systems for the frigate building project.

Beyond the defence issues, the Philippines faces a number of internal security challenges notably terrorism and criminality. BMI notes that while the Philippines is developing successful defence relationships with countries with common interests, notably Japan and the US, to respond to China, outside support to counter internal security risks is diminishing.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • We forecast the value of arms and ammunitions imports to reach USD57bn and USD66.1bn for the end of 2014 and 2015 respectively.

  • We forecast the Philippines defence trade balance to continue...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Philippines Security SWOT
9
Philippines Defence SWOT
12
Political
14
Economic
15
Business Environment
16
Industry Forecast
17
Table: Defence Expenditure (Philippines 2011-2018)
17
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Philippines 2011-2018)
19
Armed Forces
20
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Philippines 2004-2011)
20
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (Philippines 2011-2018)
21
Defence Trade
22
Table: Defence Trade Balance (Philippines 2011-2018)
23
Imports
23
Table: Defence Imports (Philippines 2011-2018)
24
Exports
24
Table: Defence Exports (Philippines 2011-2018)
25
Macroeconomic Forecasts
26
Economic Analysis
26
Remittances To Remain Supportive Of Private Consumption Growth
27
Modest Export Rebound On The Cards
28
Investment To Recover Amid Rising Business Confidence
29
Rebuilding Efforts To Spur Government Spending
30
Risks To Outlook
30
Table: Economic Activity (Philippines 2009-2018)
30
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
31
Asia Security Risk Ratings
31
Table: Asia Security Risk Ratings
31
Table: Asia State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
32
Philippines Security Risk Ratings
33
Market Overview
34
Philippines Defence Market Overview
34
Armed Forces
35
Domestic Industries
36
Exports
38
Imports
38
Philippines Security Overview
41
Domestic Threats
41
Table: Philippine Insurgent Groups
43
Regional Threats
43
International Threats
45
Company Profile
48
Arms Corporation of the Philippines (Armscor)
48
Government Arsenal
49
Regional Overview
51
South East Asia Security Overview
51
Global Industry Overview
64
Political Risk Analysis
64
Methodology
69
Industry Forecast Methodology
69
Sector-Specific Methodology
70
Sources
71
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
71
Table: Indicators And Weighting
72

The Philippines Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Philippines Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Philippine defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Philippine defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc