Business Monitor International


Philippines Defence & Security Report

Published 19 June 2014

  • 74 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Philippines Defence & Security Report

BMI View: The highlight of US President Barack Obama's recent trip to East Asia was without doubt the Philippines leg of his tour. The announcement of a defence agreement between the United States and the Philippines left the world in no doubt that President Obama's Pivot to Asia (P2A) policy was alive and kicking. The so-called Enhanced Defence Cooperation Agreement (ECDA) will see the US moving its ships and planes to the Philippines more frequently, engaging in more training exercises with the Filipino military and renewed US access to Filipino military bases.

The ECDA comes at a time when the Philippines relations with China re rapidly deteriorating. Following the fallout over Bejing's declaration of an Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) during the previous quarter, in Q214 a number of direct confrontations between the Philippines and China have escalated tensions. During May the Philippines Navy apprehended a Chinese fishing vessel reportedly carrying a large number of endangered species near the Half Moon shoal, a sandbar in the disputed Spratly islands in the South China Sea. The Chinese Foreign Ministry called upon the Philippines to release the apprehended fisherman and refrain from further provocative actions.

The Philippines is increasingly responding to Chinese aggression in the South China Sea with its own brand of assertive behaviour. As well as apprehending Chinese fishing vessels which stray into disputed waters, the Philippines has also recently released a defence plan for the South China Sea, which the Philippines has begun referring to as the 'West Philippine Sea', to protect the Philippines 'national interest'. The country has also held joint military exercises with the United States and sent a supply ship to the Ren'ai Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands.

With the US recommitting itself to the security and protection of the Philippines, it will be interesting to see whether Manila's assertiveness will continue in the face of Chinese...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
Key Forecasts:
8
Key Developments:
8
SWOT
9
Philippines Security SWOT
9
Philippines Defence SWOT
12
Political
14
Economic
15
Business Environment
16
Industry Forecast
17
Defence Expenditure
17
Table: Defence Expenditure (Philippines 2011-2018)
18
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Philippines 2011-2018)
19
Armed Forces
20
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Philippines 2000-2008)
21
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated) (Philippines 2011-2018)
21
Defence Trade
21
Table: Defence Trade Balance (USDmn) (Philippines 2011-2018)
23
Table: Defence Imports (USDmn) (Philippines 2011-2018)
24
Table: Defence Exports (USDmn) (Philippines 2011-2018)
25
Macroeconomic Forecasts
26
Economic Analysis
26
Investment To Continue Its Charge
26
Likely Recovery In The Export Sector
28
Typhoon Yolanda To Spur Public Spending
29
Remittances Supporting Private Consumption Growth
29
Risks To Economic Outlook
30
Table: Philippines - Economic Activity
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Asia Security Risk Ratings
32
Table: Asia Pacific Security Risk Ratings
32
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
33
Philippines Security Risk Ratings
33
Market Overview
34
Philippines Defence Market Overview
34
Key Developments
34
Armed Forces
35
Domestic Industries
36
Exports And Imports
37
Philippines Security Overview
39
Domestic Threats
39
Table: Philippine Insurgent Groups
42
Regional Threats
42
International Threats
46
Company Profile
49
Arms Corporation of the Philippines (Armscor)
49
Government Arsenal
50
Regional Overview
52
Political Risk Analysis
52
Global Industry Overview
65
Global Political Outlook
65
Methodology
71
Industry Forecast Methodology
71
Sector-Specific Methodology
72
Sources
73
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
73
Table: Indicators And Weighting
74

The Philippines Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Philippines Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Philippine defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Philippine defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc