According to the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines (CAMPI) and the Truck Manufacturers Association (TMA), vehicle sales in the Philippines rose 19.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April 2014, to 18,094 units. This brought sales for the first four months of 2014 to 69,737 units, an increase of 22.1% y-o-y.
While we are maintaining our CV sales forecast for the full year, passenger car sales have been growing from strength to strength, prompting us to upgrade the segment's sales forecast. We now forecast passenger car sales to grow 22.0% versus 13.0% previously, which will revise our 2014 total vehicle sales growth forecast from 11.6% to 14.7%.
April's car sales were helped by the extension of summer promotions by automakers and we expect sales to remain strong over the course of the year, supported by the country's strong economic growth outlook. Our Country Risk team maintains its 2014 real GDP growth forecast of 6.3% despite a weaker than expected growth print posted in Q114 ( see ' Still Positive Despite Disappointing Q114 GDP Print', May 30).
Furthermore, we expect the availability of affordable consumer credit on the back of low interest rates to continue to be a tailwind for passenger car sales, a trend we expect to extend well into 2015. Therefore, we have also upgraded our 2015 passenger car sales forecast from 10.0% to 15.0%.
Upcoming Initiatives Could Provide Further Boost
Another factor supporting our more favourable outlook for the auto industry is recent reports suggesting the strong likelihood of the release of new strategic policies by the government over the next few months, which will lay out the roadmap for the sector.
While the announcement of incentives under the National Automotive Manufacturing Industry Strategy has already been delayed (the updated policy was supposed to be released in H213), local carmakers such as Toyota Motor Philippines Corporation (TMP) have increased their capital investments this year in anticipation of...
The Philippines Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Philippines Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Philippines.
- Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Philippine automotives market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
- Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.
Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews
In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.
The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.
BMI Economic Forecasts
BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.