Business Monitor International


Philippines Autos Report

Published 23 December 2013

  • 66 pages
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Philippines Autos Report

Auto sales in the Philippines rose 17.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December 2013, to 17,185 units, as reported by the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines (CAMPI) and the Truck Manufacturers Association (TMA). This saw 2013 sales hit a new record of 181,283 units, an increase of 15.7%. Our bullish view on the Philippines market continues to play out in line with industry trends, given that we forecast sales to grow 14.5% in 2013.

When including sales of the Association of Vehicle Importers and Distributors, Inc, total industry sales hit 210,000 units, breaching the 200,000 unit mark for the first time.

We remain upbeat on auto sales in 2014. The country's strong economic growth, as well as low interest rates, will continue to propel passenger car sales. While our Country Risk team recently flagged up the possibility of an interest rate hike towards the latter half of 2014, interest rates still remain below historical averages and we do not see a small rise in borrowing costs as a threat to the consumer boom in the country.

Similar to 2013, we expect the passenger car segment to continue outperforming the CV segment. We forecast passenger car sales to grow 11.0% in 2014, to 67,800 units and CV sales to grow 8.0% in 2014, to 129,800 units, bringing total CAMPI and TMA sales to 197,600 units, an increase of 9.0%.

It is noteworthy that despite our expectation for passenger car sales to continue outperforming, we expect a significant deceleration in their growth rate from the impressive 26.4% print recorded in 2013. At the same time, we expect CV sales growth to only slightly slow from the 11.0% rate experienced in 2013.

According to the CAMPI's president, Rommel Gutierrez, growth in passenger car sales in 2013 was largely fuelled by the introduction of several new models in the market as well as the entry of new players. While we expect consumer demand to remain strong from sustained remittance inflows and business process outsourcing revenues, it is...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Philippines Auto Industry - Sales, 2011-2017
16
Table: Philippines Auto Industry - Production, 2011-2017
19
Table: Philippines Automotive Market: Auto Trade Balance
20
Macroeconomic Forecast
22
External Malaise A Drag, But Support Seen In Remittances
23
Investment Boom On Solid Footing
24
GDP Upgrade Well Deserved, But Watch Out For Risks
25
Expenditure Breakdown
26
Table: Philippines - Economic Activity
27
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Table: Asia Pacific Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
31
Competitive Landscape
32
Passenger Cars
32
Table: Top 10 Carmakers In Philippines By Sales (Units), Jan-Aug 2013 (Including AVID members)
33
Company News
34
Commercial Vehicles
35
Table: Philippines Commercial Vehicles - Production & Sales, 2011-2017
35
Motorcycles
36
Suppliers
37
Company Profile
40
Company Monitor - Mazda
40
Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP)
45
Honda Cars Philippines (HCP)
47
Regional Overview
48
Asia Pacific Overview
48
Table: Selected Asia Pacific Countries' Vehicle Sales, September 2013 And Full-Year 2013 (CBUs)
48
Global Industry Overview
55
Demographic Forecast
59
Demographic Outlook
59
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
60
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
61
Table: The Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
62
Table: The Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
62
Methodology
63
Industry Forecasts
63
Sector-Specific Methodology
64
Sources
64
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
65
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
66

The Philippines Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Philippines Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Philippines.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Philippine automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc