Business Monitor International


Philippines Autos Report

Published 23 December 2014

  • 55 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Philippines Autos Report

We have revised our 2014 and 2015 auto sales growth forecast for the Philippines to 29.4% and 13.3%, up from 21.7% and 9.4% respectively and we believe that the country will continue to see sales for both the passenger car and commercial vehicle (CV) segments surge over the coming quarters. According to the Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines, Inc. (CAMPI), auto sales surged by 32.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) in October to 22,278 units, bringing sales for the first 10 months of 2014 to 192,005 units, representing growth of 29.6% y-o-y.

We believe the passenger car segment will continue to outperform, and for the period January-October, passenger sales grew by 50.3% y-o-y to 74,397 units. Growth for the coming quarters will largely be underpinned by strong private consumption, despite an expected slowdown in GDP growth, as well as a resilient currency unit, which will continue to support auto imports. Given that domestic manufacturing is still relatively undeveloped, we expect demand for cars to be largely fulfilled by imports. As such, we forecast passenger car sales to grow by 49.5% for 2014, and factoring in the high-base effect of 2014, expect 2015 sales growth to come in at 20.0% for 2015.

On the commercial vehicle (CV) front, we expect growth to remain robust, although the pace of growth should also slow down, and we forecast CV sales to grow by 18.3% and 9.0% in 2014 and 2015 respectively. For the first ten months of 2014, CV sales grew by 19.2% y-o-y to 117,608 units. With the growth for the country's construction and infrastructure sectors expected to moderate over the coming quarters, we believe a slowdown in infrastructural activity to result in softening CV sales. Meanwhile, we maintain our outlook for vehicle production, forecasting production growth to come in at 13.5% and 14.5% in 2014 and 2015, with demand for autos largely being fulfilled by imports.

While we remain bullish on the growth potential of the country's auto sector, we...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
10
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2018)
12
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2018)
12
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2018)
13
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Philippines 2012-2018)
13
Macroeconomic Forecast
19
Economic Analysis
19
Remittances To Remain Supportive Of Private Consumption Growth
20
Modest Export Rebound On The Cards
21
Investment To Recover Amid Rising Business Confidence
22
Rebuilding Efforts To Spur Government Spending
23
Risks To Outlook
23
Table: Economic Activity (Philippines 2009-2018)
23
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
27
Competitive Landscape
28
Passenger Cars
28
Table: Top 10 Carmakers In Philippines By Sales In 2013 (Including AVID Members)
28
Industry News
30
Commercial Vehicles
32
Table: Philippines Commercial Vehicles - Production & Sales, 2012-2018
32
Motorcycles
33
Company Profile
34
Company Monitor
34
Toyota Motor Philippines (TMP)
37
Honda Cars Philippines (HCP)
38
Regional Overview
39
Table: Vehicle Sales June 2014 (CBUS)
39
Global Industry Overview
45
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
45
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
45
Trucks Give North America A Lift
46
India Brings Relief To BRICs
48
Demographic Forecast
50
Demographic Outlook
50
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
51
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
52
Table: The Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
53
Table: The Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
53
Methodology
54
Industry Forecasts
54
Sector-Specific Methodology
55
Sources
55
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
56
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
57

The Philippines Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Philippines Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Philippines.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Philippines to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Philippine automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Philippine automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Philippines.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the autos sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end- 2019 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Sales and production of motorcycles in units; total production of units; production by vehicle type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total vehicle fleet size in units; sales by vehicle type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles; fleet size by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicles and motorcycles; total vehicle trade balance in units; vehicle trade balance by vehicle type, including passenger car, commercial vehicle and motorcycle; car ownership measured as car density per 1,000 people.

BMI’s Autos Risk Reward index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors, with each indices explained.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2019 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles*

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company  developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country  investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Sources

The Autos Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as manufacturing associations, statistical bureaus, government transport ministries, national chambers of commerce and industry, national statistical offices, government ministries and central banks, and multinational companies.

*Company profiles are not available for every country. Those reports instead contain information on the current activities of prominent companies operating in the market.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc