Business Monitor International


Philippines Agribusiness Report

Published 02 September 2014

  • 117 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Philippines Agribusiness Report

BMI View:   We hold a positive view on the Philippines' agribusiness sector in the long term given the potential for expansion of new sectors such as palm oil. Our outlook is especially positive for sugar production, and we also believe the livestock sector will continue to post healthy growth rates. The Philippines' vast consumption market, along with strong government support, will foster domestic and foreign investment and favour output expansion. However, backyard farming and infrastructure problems, especially transport costs, will continue to hamper the sector's growth. This paradox is well illustrated in the island of Mindanao: a recent peace deal between the government and a rebel group could inspire investor confidence, which would help to develop the region's strong agricultural potential. However, lingering issues regarding business environment and security issues in Mindanao will restrict the development of the island.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2005-2018)

Key Forecasts

  • Sugar production growth to 201 7/18 : 1 6.2% to 2.8 mn tonnes. Sugar production expansion will be mainly driven by improvements in yields.

  • Pork production growth to 201 7/18 : 1 6.4 % to 1.6 mn tonnes. Growth will be driven by an increase in commercial farming, as well as rising domestic consumption.

  • Rice consumption growth to 201 8: 4.9 % to 13. 5 mn tonnes. Per capita consumption growth is expected to slow as the government encourages the consumption of other goods (such as corn and cassava) to limit demand as part of the country's self-sufficiency strategy. However, the combination of strong population growth and only moderate production growth means that the country will remain one of the world's largest net importers of rice.

  • A gribusiness market value: 0.7% decrease to US$1 7.26 bn in 2014, forecast to grow on average 3.8% annually between 2014 and 2018. 

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 6.3 % (down from 7.2% in 2013; predicted to...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Agribusiness
10
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Dairy Outlook
13
Table: Butter Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
14
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
14
Table: Whole Milk Powder Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
14
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
18
Livestock Outlook
19
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
20
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
20
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
21
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
22
Rice Outlook
23
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Philippines 2012-2018)
24
Table: Rice Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
28
Grains Outlook
29
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
30
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
30
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
33
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
33
Sugar Outlook
34
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Philippines 2013-2018)
35
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Philippines 2008-2013)
40
Commodities Price Analysis
41
Monthly Softs Strategy
41
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
50
Monthly Grains Strategy
50
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
59
Upstream Analysis
60
Asia GM Outlook
60
Table: Select Countries - GM Crops Use
66
Asia Machinery Outlook
66
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
68
Table: Select Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
72
Asia Machinery Outlook
76
Table: China Grain Public Production Support Programme (CNYbn)
76
Table: Selected Countries - Average Size Of Farms, Hectares
80
Downstream Analysis
84
Mass Grocery Retail
84
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2018)
85
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type
86
Food
87
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)
88
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2011-2018)
90
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2018)
92
Drink
93
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2018)
93
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2018)
94
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Philippines 2013-2018)
95
Regional Overview
97
Table: Indonesia & Malaysia Palm Oil Refining Capacity & Utilisation Rate
99
Table: Selected Countries - Biofuel Blending Mandates & Programmes
103
Competitive Landscape
105
Table: Major Agribusiness Companies (USD mn)
105
Demographic Forecast
106
Demographic Outlook
106
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
107
Table: The Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
108
Table: The Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
109
Table: The Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
109
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Sector-Specific Methodology
111

The Philippines Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Philippines Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Philippines.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Philippines Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc