Business Monitor International


Peru Oil & Gas Report

Published 07 April 2014

  • 92 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Peru Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Opposition from environmentalists and the indigenous population , as well as guerrilla attacks on Peru 's energy infrastructure have encouraged us to temper our optimistic stance on the count r y's hydrocarbon s sector to a certain extent . That said, we still retain a positive view overall, forecasting that oil an d gas production will expand noticeably over our forecast period given the underexplored nature of the energy sector and one of the more favourable business environment's in the region.

The main trends and developments we highlight in the Peruvian oil and gas sector are:

  • Overall, we believe Peru's natural gas prospects remain bright, led by the continued development of its Ucayali basin. We note though, that despite its potential, opposition from environmentalists, the indigenous population and even various government ministries to the development of the Amazon-based hydrocarbons has somewhat tempered our enthusiasm in recent quarters. Indeed, combined with the continued security threat posed by the insurgent group, the Shining Path, this had encouraged us to revise down our projections in the last quarter. As such, while we are still currently forecasting fairly robust natural gas production growth - rising from 12.3bn cubic meters (bcm) in 2013 to 15.0bcm in 2017 and 17.8bcm by 2023 - we note that this is likely below potential.

  • In terms of gas demand, consumption will continue to rise over the forecast period, though at a slower pace than in the past decade, ensuring the country remains a net gas exporter. Indeed, while we expect consumer demand to continue to make solid gain, with the mining sector set for a slowdown on the back of moderating Chinese demand for Peruvian mineral exports, this will likely temper the expansion. As such, after estimated 2013 consumption of 6.3bcm, we expect gas consumption of 8.0bcm in 2018, just surpassing 10.6bcm by 2023.

  • Despite our expectations for sluggish crude production, we...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil & Gas Reserves
10
Table: Peru Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data
10
Table: Peru Proven Oil And Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data
11
Oil Supply And Demand
12
Table: Peru Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports
12
Table: Peru Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports
13
Gas Supply And Demand
15
Table: Peru Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports
15
Table: Peru Gas Production, Consumption and Net Exports
16
Refining And Oil Products Trade
19
Table: Peru Refining - Production and Consumption
19
Table: Peru Refining - Production And Consumption
20
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
20
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
21
Peru - Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Peru Upstream Rating - Rewards
21
Upstream Rating - Risks
21
Downstream Rating - Overview
21
Latin America - Risk/Reward Ratings
21
Table: Latin American Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
23
Upstream: Production Growth Forecasts Reinforce Regional Polarization
24
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
26
Downstream: Medium-Term Outlook Reinforces Current Dynamics
26
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
28
Market Overview
29
Peru Energy Market Overview
29
Overview/State Role
29
Licensing And Regulation
29
Government Policy
29
Licensing Rounds
30
Table: Key Upstream Players
31
Table: Key Downstream Players
32
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
33
Oil Refineries
33
Table: Refineries In Peru
33
Oil Pipelines
34
LNG Terminals
34
Gas Pipelines
34
Competitive Landscape
36
Table: Key Players In Peru's Oil & Gas Sector
37
Company Profile
38
Petroper-
38
Repsol
41
Other Summaries
44
Regional Overview
51
Latin America Overview
51
Global Industry Overview
58
Global Energy Market Overview
58
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts & Bloomberg Analyst Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl)
59
Table: Global Oil Demand Forecasts
65
Appendix
67
Latin America - Regional Appendix
67
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
67
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
67
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
68
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
69
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 ('000b/d)
69
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 ('000b/d)
70
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
70
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
71
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
72
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
72
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 (bcm)
73
Table: LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm)
73
Glossary
75
Table: Glossary Of Terms
75
Methodology
77
Energy Industry
78
Cross checks
78
Sources
79

The Peru Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Peru including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Peru Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Peruvian oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Peru to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Peruvian oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc