Business Monitor International


Peru Freight Transport Report

Published 10 October 2014

  • 80 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Peru Freight Transport Report

BMI maintains its broadly positive view on Peru's freight transport sector. While we expect real GDP growth to level off at around 5.0% during our forecast period, below its recent trend, significant mineral wealth, attractive investment opportunities at the sector level, and an improving consumer story underpin our view that Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America in the coming years.

Further upside risk comes from the recently announced plan to heavily invest in Peru's transport network, which BMI believes will help boost the country's freight transport volumes, through providing easier routes to market. However, we caution that perhaps the plan is overly ambitious, and might not quite hit the desired target by the scheduled date. According to Peru's transport and communications minister, Carlos Paredes Rodrígues, USD22bn is set to be invested in the Latin American country's transport and communications sectors by 2016.

On the downside, given our Asia Country Risk team's expectation that Chinese real GDP growth will trend lower in the coming years, as the economy rebalances away from an investment-led growth model to one in which private consumption plays a larger role, we anticipate that Peru will continue to be hit hard through the trade and investment channels due to weaker Chinese demand, lower average metals prices, and more moderate capital expenditure plans by major mining firms.

Headline Industry Data

  • We expect growth of 3.9% in total tonnage throughput at the Port of Callao, to 32.0mn tonnes in 2014.

  • We predict air freight volume to increase 4.2%, to 339,000 tonnes in 2014.

  • We expect rail freight carried (volume x distance) to grow 2.9%, to 954mn tonnes-km in 2014.

Key Industry Trends

China , Brazil And Peru To Coordinate Efforts To Build Rail Link : After a meeting in Brazil in July 2014 between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his counterparts from Brazil and Peru, Dilma Rousseff and Ollanta Humala,...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
11
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Road Freight
15
Air Freight
16
Table: Air Freight (Peru 2011-2018)
18
Rail Freight
18
Table: Rail Freight (Peru 2011-2018)
20
Maritime Freight
20
Table: Maritime Freight (Peru 2011-2018)
22
Trade
23
Table: Trade Overview (Peru 2011-2018)
23
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Peru 2011-2018)
23
Table: Top Import Partners, USD
24
Table: Top Export Partners, USD
25
Market Overview
26
Industry Trends And Developments
28
Rail Freight
28
Inland Waterway Freight
29
Air Freight
29
Maritime Freight
29
Company Profile
32
Ferrocarril Central Andino
32
Political Outlook
34
Domestic Politics
34
Long-Term Political Outlook
36
Table: Table: Political Overview
41
Oil Price Outlook
43
Bunker Fuel: No End To Downtrend
43
Table: BMI Bunker Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
43
Slower Fall, But Fall Nonetheless
45
Longer Term Trends Continue To Press HSFO
49
Risks To Outlook
50
Jet Fuel: Relative Short-Term Stability With Long-Term Risks
51
Table: BMI Jet Fuel Price Forecast, 2014-2018
51
Longer Term Dynamics: Consolidation Poses Risk
56
Risks To Outlook
57
Diesel/Gasoil: Short-Term Overhang To Dissipate
58
Table: BMI Diesel/Gasoil Price Forecast, 2014-2018 (USD/bbl)
58
Supply Keeps Market Down
58
Higher Crude Prices, Tighter Market To Provide Support
60
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel To Find Demand Support
61
Risks To Outlook
64
Macroeconomic Forecasts
65
Economic Analysis
65
Table: Economic Activity (Peru 2009-2018)
70
Demographic Forecast
71
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
72
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
73
Table: Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
74
Table: Peru's Rural/Urban Population, 1990-2020
74
Methodology
75
Industry Forecast Methodology
75
Sector-Specific Methodology
76
Sources
77

The Peru Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Peru Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Peruvian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Peru to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc