Business Monitor International


Peru Freight Transport Report

Published 07 July 2014

  • 80 pages
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  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Peru Freight Transport Report

BMI maintains its broadly positive view on Peru's freight transport sector. While we expect real GDP growth to level off at around 5.0% during our forecast period, below its recent trend, significant mineral wealth, attractive investment opportunities at the sector level, and a growing consumer story underpin our view that Peru will remain one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America in the coming years.

Further upside comes from the recently announced plan to heavily invest in Peru's transport network, which BMI believes will help boost the country's freight transport volumes, through providing easier routes to market. However, we caution that perhaps the plan is overly ambitious, and might not quite hit the desired target by the scheduled date. According to Peru's transport and communications minister, Carlos Paredes Rodrígues, USD22bn is set to be invested in the Latin American country's transport and communications sectors by 2016.

On the downside, given our Asia Country Risk team's expectation that Chinese real GDP growth will trend lower in the coming years, as the economy rebalances away from an investment-led growth model to one in which private consumption plays a larger role, we anticipate that Peru will continue to be hit hard through the trade and investment channels due to weaker Chinese demand, lower average metals prices, and more moderate capital expenditure plans by major mining firms.

Headline Industry Data

  • We expect growth of 3.9% in total tonnage throughput at the Port of Callao, to 20.9mn tonnes in 2014.

  • We predict air freight volume to increase 4.6%, to 348,000 tonnes in 2014.

  • We expect rail freight carried (volume x distance) to grow 3.3%, to 1.02mn tonnes-km in 2014.

Key Industry Trends

Rail Link for Bolivia, Brazil and Peru in Development

According to reports, Spanish, French and Bolivian consulting firms are developing a Central Rail Corridor project designed to link Brazil, Bolivia and Peru. The Interamerican Development...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Freight Transport
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Road
14
Air
15
Table: Air Freight (Peru 2011-2018)
17
Rail
17
Table: Rail Freight (Peru 2011-2018)
19
Maritime
19
Table: Maritime Freight (Peru 2011-2018)
20
Trade
21
Table: Trade Overview (Peru 2011-2018)
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators (Peru 2011-2018)
21
Table: Top Import Partners, USD
22
Table: Top Export Partners, USD
23
Market Overview
24
Industry Trends And Developments
26
Company Profile
29
Ferrocarril Central Andino
29
Political Outlook
31
Domestic Politics
31
Table: Recent Cabinet Changes
31
Long-Term Political Outlook
33
Table: Table: Political Overview
38
Oil Price Outlook
40
Jet Fuel
40
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl
40
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall
40
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth
42
Risks To Outlook
45
Diesel
46
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
46
New York's One-Off Heat Up
46
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected
49
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward
53
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks
55
Risks To Outlook
59
Bunker Fuel
60
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl)
60
The Storm Clears For Shipping
61
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices
63
Long-Term Threats Linger
64
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder
66
Risks To Outlook
67
Macroeconomic Forecasts
68
Table: Peru - Economic Activity
72
Demographic Forecast
73
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
74
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
75
Table: Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
76
Table: Peru's Rural/Urban Population, 1990-2020
76
Methodology
77
Industry Forecast Methodology
77
Sector-Specific Methodology
78
Sources
79

The Peru Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Peru Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Peruvian freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Peru to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc