Business Monitor International


Peru Food & Drink Report

Published 23 January 2014

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Peru Food & Drink Report

We expect headline growth in Peru to remain slightly lower than the previous five-year period. The slowdown in the Chinese economy will hinder the expansion of the country's mining sector, which accounts for around 10% of the Peruvian GDP. A weakening currency and ticking up inflation will weigh on consumer spending over the short term, affecting all consumer sectors, including food and drink. Nevertheless, we maintain a positive longer-term view of Peru's food and drink sector, which will see strong expansion rates and present a number of interesting investment opportunities over the forecast period.

Headline Industry Data

  • Per capita food consumption value (local currency) growth (y-o-y) in 2013: +8.77%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) to 2017: +8.20%;

  • Alcoholic drinks value sales (local currency) growth (y-o-y) in 2013: +6.19%; CAGR to 2017 = +6.13%;

  • Soft drinks value (local currency) sales growth (y-o-y): +7.02%; CAGR to 2017: +6.92%;

  • Mass grocery retail value (local currency) sales growth (y-o-y): +10.30%; CAGR to 2017: +9.72%.

Key Industry Trends And Developments

In November 2012 statements made to Olive Oil Times by the Peruvian Pro Olivo Association indicated that local producers of olive oil had been affected by imports of subsidised Spanish olive oil inflows into Peru. As a result, Pro Olivo has applied to 'Peru's National Institution for Competition Defense and Intellectual Property Protection (Indecopi) for an extension of countervailing duties on Spanish olive oil imports', according to the source.

Key Risks to Outlook

While Peru's economy offers a wealth of opportunities at a sector level, the operating environment is not without risks. In our view, political risk is likely to remain high over coming years on the back of continued social unrest and a tenuous security situation. We believe income inequality is a root cause of many of these issues, and we expect they will take years to resolve. In addition, the domestic security situation...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Food
8
Drink
10
Mass Grocery Retail
12
Industry Forecast
14
Consumer Outlook
14
Food
16
Food Consumption (local currency)
16
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
17
Confectionary
17
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
18
Table: Confectionery Production And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
18
Meat And Fish
19
Table: Meat Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
20
Table: Fish Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
21
Pasta
22
Table: Pasta Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
23
Oils And Fats
23
Table: Oils And Fats Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
24
Dairy
24
Table: Dairy Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
25
Drink
27
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
28
Table: Tea Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
28
Table: Soft Drink Value Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
29
Table: Soft Drinks Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
29
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
33
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
33
Mass Grocery Retail
35
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
36
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2012 and 2022 (%)
37
Trade
37
Table: Food And Drink Trade Balance - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
38
Macroeconomic Forecasts
39
Table: Peru - Economic Activity
44
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
45
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings
45
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q114
46
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q114 (scores out of 10)
48
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
49
Market Overview
50
Food
50
Drink
52
Retail
53
Table: Structure Of Peru's Mass Grocery Retail Market By Number Of Outlets, 2004-2012
55
Table: Structure Of Peru's Mass Grocery Retail Market, Sales Value By Format, 2004-2012 (US$bn)
55
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format, 2012
55
Industry Trends And Developments
56
Food
56
Drink
56
Retail
59
Competitive Landscape
62
Table: Key Players In Peru's Food And Drink Sector
62
Table: Key Players In Peru's Mass Grocery Retail Sector
63
Company Profile
64
Uni-n de Cervercer-as Peruanas Backus y Johnston
64
Corporaci-n Jose R Lindley
66
Aje Group
68
Wong (Cencosud)
70
Saga Falabella
72
Grupo Gloria
74
Good Foods
76
Global Industry Overview
78
Table: Food And Drink Core Views
86
Demographic Forecast
87
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
88
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
89
Table: Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
90
Table: Peru's Rural/Urban Population, 1990-2020
90
Glossary
91
Food & Drink
91
Mass Grocery Retail
91
Methodology
93
Industry Forecast Methodology
93
Sector-Specific Methodology
94
Sources
94
Risk/Reward Rating Methodology
95
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
96
Table: Weighting
97

The Peru Food & Drink Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for food and drink expenditure, consumption, sales, and imports/exports and forecasts for the mass grocery retail sector. The report also includes analyses of major regulatory developments, the background macroeconomic outlook and competitive landscape comparing national and multinational companies by leading products and services, sales, investments, partners and expansion strategies.

BMI's Peru Food & Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the food and drink industry and the mass grocery retail market in Peru.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent food and drink industry forecasts for Peru to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Peruvian food and drink market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Peru through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit latest competitive intelligence on your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, and views, covering food and drink manufacturing and consumption and the retail market.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors, food and drink manufacturers and mass grocery retailers.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industry, economic and demographic data points.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the food, drink and mass grocery retail sectors, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Food Forecasts

BMI's food chapter is divided into sections such as Meat, Fish, Confectionary, Dairy and Canned Foods, and provides insight into a market's food industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. The chapter includes the following elements:

Industry Forecast Scenario - Historical data series and forecasts to end-2018 for growth of key indicators within a market's food industry. Including consumption, food consumption as % of GDP, canned food sales, confectionery sales and food and drink imports and exports, among others.

Industry Developments - A summary of corporate developments, including news on M&As, FDI, expansions, closures and financial results, in addition to analysis and explanation of the latest industry events and how these could influence further investment.

Market Overview - An overview of the structure of the market, introducing the key players and discussing underlying trends.

Drink Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food chapter, the drink section provides insight into the market's drink industry, centred on a forecast to end-2018 for the sector. Forecast indicators include alcoholic and soft drink sales by value, volume and sub-sector and tea and coffee sales, among others.

Mass Grocery Retail Forecasts

Segmented the same way as BMI's food and drink chapters, the mass grocery retail section provides insight into a market's grocery retail industry, centred on a forecast to end-201 for the sector. Forecast indicators include mass grocery retail sales by format (including supermarkets, hypermarkets, convenience and discount stores) and a breakdown for the organised retail sector versus the traditional sector, among others.

Competitive Landscape & Profiles

Illustration of the industry via rankings tables comparing revenues, number of outlets and number of employees. BMI analyses each company's market position, business strategies and investment potential.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc