Business Monitor International


Peru Autos Report

Published 24 December 2013

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Peru Autos Report

BMI has become significantly less optimistic on the medium-term outlook for Peruvian new vehicle sales over the past 12 months. We are now forecasting growth of 32.7% (down from 58% previously) over the 2014-17 period. This will see total new vehicle sales rise to 287,343 units by 2017, made up of 211,551 passenger cars and 75,793 commercial vehicles.

Looking at the most recent new vehicle sales data as this report was being compiled (covering the January-October 2013), we can see that Peru has seen a slowing down in growth from the rapid 27% witnessed in 2012. Indeed, as of end-October 2013, year-to-date vehicle sales were up by 8%, at 168,122, according to figures from the Peruvian Association of Automotive Representatives (Araper). For the full year, BMI is forecasting growth of 9%, to reach 207,952 units.

Looking forward, BMI adopts a slightly more cautious stance on the near-term outlook for new vehicle sales, targeting growth of just 4.1% in 2014, before gaining ground to 9.3% in 2015.

The main reason behind our more measured stance as we enter 2014 is BMI's Country Risk team's view that the economy will struggle to return to the 6%+ growth seen over the 2010-12 period. Already, we have recently downgraded our 2013 real GDP growth forecast, to 4.8% from 5.1%, with economic expansion set to remain largely unchanged, at 4.9%, in 2014.

On the positive side, new mining projects are set to come online over the coming years and investment should pick up, following a more accommodative monetary policy stance taken by the central bank. This should boost demand for new commercial vehicles in particular.

However, with regards to passenger car sales, we believe that the consumer sector will continue to be undermined by the declining purchasing power of the Peruvian sol currency, which had depreciated by almost 10% over the first 11 months of 2013, as international investors have begun to pull out of emerging markets in anticipation of a normalisation of monetary...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
5
SWOT
7
Political
8
Economic
9
Business Environment
10
Industry Forecast
11
Table: Peru Autos Sector - Sales, 2010-2017
11
Passenger Vehicles
13
Table: Top 10 Manufacturers By Sales (Jan-Sep 2013)
14
Table: Top 10 Best-Selling Car Models (September 2013)
15
Commercial Vehicles
15
Macroeconomic Forecasts
18
Table: Peru - Economic Activity
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Table: Latin America Risk
Table: Latin America Risk
Company Profile
27
Company Monitor
27
Toyota Motor
30
Hyundai
32
Regional Overview
34
Global Industry Overview
38
Demographic Forecast
42
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
43
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
44
Table: Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
45
Table: Peru's Rural
Table: Peru's Rural
Methodology
46
Industry Forecasts
46
Sector-Specific Methodology
47
Sources
47
Risk
Risk
Table: Automotive Risk
Table: Automotive Risk

The Peru Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Peru Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Peru.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Peru to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Peruvian automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Peruvian automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Peru.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc