Business Monitor International


Peru Agribusiness Report

Published 26 March 2014

  • 121 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Peru Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Our outlook for Peru's agricultural sector remains positive. The livestock sector is very dynamic, and investment into the country's ethanol sector is boosting sugar production. Export crops such as coffee and cocoa are hampered by a lack of infrastructure and investment, but there is scope for strong growth in both, particularly as Peru is becoming increasingly recognised for organic and speciality crops. We caution that a lack of profitability threatens to weaken the dairy sector; this could be further exacerbated by the entry into force of the free trade agreement with the EU.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of Total) (2010-2018)

Key Forecasts

  • Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 18.0% to 1.44mn tonnes. Ongoing investment and the availability of cheaper imported feed will support growth in the sector.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2017/18: 12.0% to 1.4mn tonnes. The rapid expansion of the local confectionery and soft drinks sector will see demand for sugar expand in the coming years.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: USD11.1bn in 2014 (stable from USD11.1bn in 2013; forecast to grow annually by 6.8% on average to 2018).

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 4.8% (down from 5.0% in 2013; forecast to grow annually by 5.0% on average between 2013 and 2018).

  • 2014 consumer price index: 2.8% y-o-y (stable compared with 2013; forecast to grow annually by 2.9% on average between 2013 and 2018).

Industry Developments

Alicorp is the largest manufacturer of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) in Peru, with full-year revenue for 2013 reaching PEN5.8bn, surpassing the USD2bn revenue target set in 2008. We believe that Alicorp will deliver solid annual growth on account of good industry dynamics within Peru, but argue that recent acquisitions have left the company highly leveraged.

Egypt and Peru have banned beef imports from Brazil after a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was confirmed in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso, a...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Sugar Outlook
12
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
13
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
17
Dairy Outlook
19
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
20
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
20
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
21
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
22
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
22
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
22
Livestock Outlook
24
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
25
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
25
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
25
Table: Poultry Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
27
Table: Pork Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
27
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
27
Grains Outlook
29
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
30
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
31
Coffee Outlook
32
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
33
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
36
Cocoa Outlook
36
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Peru 2012-2018)
37
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
39
Commodities Price Analysis
40
Monthly Grains Update
40
Table: Selected Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
49
Monthly Softs Update
50
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
59
Upstream Analysis
60
Americas Machinery Outlook
60
Table: Deere & Company - Agriculture & Turf Sales Growth Forecasts By Region
61
Americas GM Outlook
67
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
71
Downstream Analysis
77
Food
77
Food Consumption (local currency)
77
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
78
Confectionary
78
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
79
Table: Confectionery Production And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
79
Meat And Fish
80
Table: Meat Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
81
Table: Fish Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
82
Pasta
83
Table: Pasta Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
84
Oils And Fats
84
Table: Oils And Fats Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
85
Dairy
85
Table: Dairy Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
86
Drink
88
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
89
Table: Tea Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
89
Table: Soft Drink Value Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
90
Table: Soft Drinks Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
90
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
94
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
94
Mass Grocery Retail
96
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
97
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2012 and 2022 (%)
98
Regional Overview
99
Competitive Landscape
105
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
105
Demographic Forecast
106
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
107
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
108
Table: Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
109
Table: Peru's Rural/Urban Population, 1990-2020
109
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Sector-Specific Methodology
111

The Peru Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Peru Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Peru.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Peru Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc