Business Monitor International


Peru Agribusiness Report

Published 26 March 2014

  • 121 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Peru Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Our outlook for Peru's agricultural sector remains positive. The livestock sector is very dynamic, and investment into the country's ethanol sector is boosting sugar production. Export crops such as coffee and cocoa are hampered by a lack of infrastructure and investment, but there is scope for strong growth in both, particularly as Peru is becoming increasingly recognised for organic and speciality crops. We caution that a lack of profitability threatens to weaken the dairy sector; this could be further exacerbated by the entry into force of the free trade agreement with the EU.

Grains & Livestock On Top
Peru - BMI Market Value By Commodity (% of total)

Key Forecasts

  • Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 18.0% to 1.44mn tonnes. Ongoing investment and the availability of cheaper imported feed will support growth in the sector.

  • Sugar production growth to 2017/18: 26.3% to 1.5mn tonnes. The rapid expansion of the ethanol sector will see increasing investment in sugar cane.

  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$11.1bn in 2014 (stable from US$11.1bn in 2013; forecast to grow annually by 6.8% on average to 2018).

  • 2014 real GDP growth: 5.1% (up from 4.8% in 2013; forecast to grow annually by 5.1% on average between 2013 and 2018).

  • 2014 consumer price index: 2.9% y-o-y (up from 2.8% in 2013; forecast to grow annually by 2.9% on average between 2013 and 2018).

Industry Developments

We maintain our forecast for Peru's sugar production to increase 5% y-o-y to 1.22mn tonnes in 2013/14, a result of yield improvements and new processing capacity. The average sugar yield in 2012/13 was 128 tonnes per hectare (ha), up 4% y-o-y. Total harvested area in 2012/13 was 81,149ha. For 2013/14, local industry sources are indicating that sugar yields could be as high as 190 tonnes/ha in some regions, which could push up the average and support production growth. Moreover, weather conditions have reportedly been favourable during plantings, with sufficient water...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Sugar Outlook
12
Table: Peru Sugar Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
13
Table: Peru Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
15
Dairy Outlook
16
Table: Peru Milk Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
17
Table: Peru Cheese Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
17
Table: Peru Butter Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
18
Table: Peru Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
20
Table: Peru Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
20
Table: Peru Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
20
Livestock Outlook
21
Table: Peru Poultry Production & Consumption
22
Table: Peru Pork Production & Consumption
22
Table: Peru Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
23
Table: Peru Poultry Production, 2008-2013
24
Table: Peru Pork Production, 2008-2013
24
Table: Peru Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
24
Grains Outlook
25
Table: Peru Corn Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
26
Table: Peru Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
30
Coffee Outlook
31
Table: Peru Coffee Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
32
Table: Peru Coffee Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
36
Cocoa Outlook
36
Table: Peru Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2013-2018
37
Table: Peru Cocoa Production & Consumption, 2008-2013
38
Commodities Price Analysis
39
Monthly Grains Update
39
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & Forecasts
47
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
48
Monthly Softs Update
49
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
56
Table: BMI Commodities Strategy
57
Upstream Analysis
58
Americas Machinery Outlook
58
Americas GM Outlook
64
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
69
Downstream Analysis
75
Food
75
Food Consumption (local currency)
75
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
76
Confectionary
76
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
77
Table: Confectionery Production And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
77
Meat And Fish
78
Table: Meat Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
79
Table: Fish Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
80
Pasta
81
Table: Pasta Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
82
Oils And Fats
82
Table: Oils And Fats Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
83
Dairy
83
Table: Dairy Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
84
Drink
86
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
87
Table: Tea Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
87
Table: Soft Drink Value Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
88
Table: Soft Drinks Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
88
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value Sales - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
92
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Production, Consumption And Trade - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
92
Mass Grocery Retail
94
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2010-2017
95
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2012 and 2022 (%)
96
Regional Overview
97
Competitive Landscape
103
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
103
Demographic Forecast
104
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
105
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
106
Table: Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
107
Table: Peru's Rural/Urban Population, 1990-2020
107
Methodology
108
Industry Forecast Methodology
108
Sector-Specific Methodology
109

The Peru Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Peru Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Peru.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Peru Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc