Business Monitor International


Peru Agribusiness Report

Published 15 December 2014

  • 121 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Peru Agribusiness Report

BMI View: Our outlook for Peru's agricultural sector remains positive. Export crops such as coffee and cocoa are hampered by a lack of infrastructure and investment, but there is scope for strong growth in both, particularly as Peru is becoming increasingly recognised for organic and speciality crops. The country is set to ben efit from cheaper food imports owing to the lower price of grains as well as the weakness in the Argentine peso, from where it imports a great deal of its grain.

Agribusiness Market Value
BMI Market Value By Commodity (2010-2018)

Key Forecasts

  • Poultry production growth to 2017/18: 20.1 % to 1.4 7 mn tonnes . Ongoing investment and the availability of cheaper imported feed will support growth in the sector.

  • Sugar consumption growth to 2017/18: 6.5 % to 1. 35 mn tonnes . The rapid expansion of the local confectionery and soft drinks sector will see demand for sugar expand in the coming years.

  • BMI U niverse A gribusiness M arket V alue: USD1 2.4b n in 201 5 (increase of 3.4% y-o-y on 2014; forecast to grow annually by 3.7% on average from 2014/15 to 2017/18).

  • 201 5 real GDP growth: 4.0 % (up from 3.8% in 2014).

  • 201 5 consumer price index: 2. 9 % year-on-year (down from 3.2% y-o-y in 2014).

Industry Developments

Depreciation of the Argentine peso over the coming years will benefit importers of Argentine agricultural products, particularly grain importers. Soybean hoarding by Argentine farmers will continue to increase, and we expect an increase in grains hoarding over coming years. A depreciating Argentine peso will result in cheaper grain imports for key import markets, such as China and Latin American neighbours. Cheaper grains will also benefit the livestock industries in these countries, as cheaper feed costs could translate into higher profit margins and increased consumption.

We believe that dairy production in Peru will be one of the best performing agricultural sectors over the coming years. Having...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Agribusiness
9
Business Environment
11
Industry Forecast
12
Sugar Outlook
12
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
13
Table: Sugar Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
17
Dairy Outlook
19
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
20
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
20
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
21
Table: Milk Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
22
Table: Cheese Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
22
Table: Butter Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
22
Livestock Outlook
24
Table: Poultry Production (Peru 2013-2018)
25
Table: Pork Production (Peru 2013-2018)
25
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
25
Table: Poultry Production (Peru 2008-2013)
26
Table: Pork Production (Peru 2008-2013)
27
Table: Beef Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
27
Grains Outlook
28
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
29
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
30
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
30
Table: Corn Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
31
Table: Wheat Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
31
Table: Barley Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
32
Coffee Outlook
33
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Peru 2013-2018)
34
Table: Coffee Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
37
Cocoa Outlook
37
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Peru 2012-2018)
38
Table: Cocoa Production & Consumption (Peru 2008-2013)
40
Commodities Price Analysis
41
Monthly Softs Strategy
41
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
49
Monthly Grains Strategy
50
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts
59
Upstream Analysis
60
Americas Machinery Outlook
60
Americas GM Outlook
66
Americas Fertiliser Outlook
72
Downstream Analysis
77
Food
77
Food Consumption (local currency)
77
Table: Food Consumption Indicators - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
78
Confectionary
78
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2011-2018)
79
Meat And Fish
80
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecast (Peru 2013-2018)
80
Pasta
81
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2013-2018)
81
Oils And Fats
81
Dairy
82
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2013-2018)
83
Drink
84
Table: Hot Drink Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2013-2018)
85
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2013-2018)
86
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales, Production & Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2013-2018)
89
Mass Grocery Retail
90
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (Peru 2013-2018)
91
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, 2012 and 2022 (%)
92
Regional Overview
93
Competitive Landscape
99
Table: Main Agribusiness Players
99
Demographic Forecast
100
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
101
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
102
Table: Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
103
Table: Peru's Rural/Urban Population, 1990-2020
103
Methodology
104
Industry Forecast Methodology
104
Sector-Specific Methodology
105

The Peru Agribusiness Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts for production, consumption and trade across core agricultural commodities.

BMI's Peru Agribusiness Report includes independent commodity price forecasting and analysis for key agricultural outputs, an overview of the agribusiness competitive landscape and a discussion of the downstream context of agricultural production in relation to country food consumption forecasts and composite food and beverage trade forecasts.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts to test other views - a key input for successful planning in dynamic agribusiness markets.
  • Apply BMI's medium-term commodity price analysis to assist with budgetary planning and the identification of investment opportunities and potential risks.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

An analytical summary of BMI's latest key industry forecasts and views, highlighting recent changes and key risks to the industry outlook for agribusiness in Peru.

Industry SWOT Analysis

At-a-glance perspectives on the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing the agricultural industry.

BMI Supply & Demand Forecasts

Divided into sections based on various diverse sectors in the agriculture market, the chapter provides insight into each market's agricultural industry, centred on sector forecasts to end-2018 for the consumption, production and trade of key agricultural commodities.

Consumption forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the main drivers of consumption growth: macroeconomic factors, food processing trends, price movements and, increasingly, demand from the non-food sector.

Production forecasts examine the trends influencing BMI's production outlook: global demand, price increases, public and private sector investment and agricultural efficiency improvements.

Trade forecasts are accompanied by a discussion of the factors influencing a country's trade in agricultural goods, including domestic demand, global prices and government trade policies.

BMI's forecasts are accompanied by a Risks- to-Outlook assessment, which examines potential factors that could affect our existing forecast picture and the likelihood of their occurrence.

BMI's Commodity Price Analysis

Fundamental and technical analysis of the short- and medium-term price outlook for key agricultural commodities, based on globally-recognised benchmarks.

Downstream Analysis

Analysis of headline food and drink forecasts, including total food consumption, per capita food consumption and total sector trade, which provide important downstream intelligence for primary agricultural producers.

Featured Analysis

Includes relevant articles from BMI's daily analysis service. These can include long-term projections on agricultural imports and exports, our perceptions of the impacts of economic slowdown on key companies and subsectors within the Agribusiness industry in a given country, our analysis of fertilizer production as well as other relevant analysis of recent news and events on Store and Landing Pages.

Methodology & Sourcing

The Peru Agribusiness Report is based on an extensive network of multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc