Business Monitor International


Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report

Published 12 February 2014

  • 102 pages
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$1,295.00
Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The first LNG delive ries from Papua New Guinea's Exx onMobil - led PNG LNG facility, the country's first gas export project, are expected as scheduled in H2 2014. There continues to be new proposals for LNG exports, and with Total's deal in PRL 15, Interoil's LNG export plans for the Elk/Antelope field may finally move forward. Gas projects will also offer some relief to a decline in liquids output , condensate from the PNG LNG project will give oil production a temporary boost.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Papua New Guinea's oil and gas sector are:

  • The most significant development in Papua New Guinea (PNG)'s oil and gas sector was movement on the long-stalled, InterOil-led liquefied natural gas (LNG) project. While it appeared that 'exclusive talks' would lead to a deal with ExxonMobil, in December 2013 French major Total farmed-in to the PRL 15 licence containing the Elk/Antelope complex with a 61.3% interest. As a result of the Total deal with InterOil we have altered our forecasts for PNG's gas production. The new agreement has delayed both the expected addition of gas to supply a third train at ExxonMobil's PNG LNG facility and also postponed production from the Elk/Antelope complex until around 2020, by which time a second standalone LNG export terminal could be operational.

  • Overall, our view remains largely optimistic on PNG's gas sector, which we expect will expand beyond the initial two trains due online from the Exxon-led PNG LNG project in 2014. First gas from the project could treble PNG's exports and boost its GDP by at least 20%. Due to new LNG export facilities, we anticipate production to grow from 0.1bcm in 2013 to 14.8bcm by 2018.

  • The Hides, Angore and Juha fields are due to begin supplying Exxon's PNG LNG project from mid-2014 when the facility is due to come online. We now believe further expansion of this project will be underpinned by resources from the P'nyang field, while more exploration of...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Papua New Guinea Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Papua New Guinea Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Papua New Guinea Oil Production And Net Exports Forecasts, 2012-2017
14
Table: Papua New Guinea Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
14
Gas Supply And Demand
18
Table: Papua New Guinea Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
18
Table: Papua New Guinea Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
19
Refining And Oil Products Trade
22
Table: Papua New Guinea Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
22
Table: Papua New Guinea Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
23
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
24
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
25
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
25
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
26
The Upstream Leaders
26
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
28
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Downstream Support
30
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
34
Papua New Guinea - Risk/Reward Ratings
35
PNG Upstream Rating
35
PNG Downstream Rating
35
Market Overview
36
Papua New Guinea Energy Market Overview
36
Overview/State Role
38
Licensing And Regulation
38
Government Policy
38
International Energy Relations
39
Table: Papua New Guinea - Upstream Projects Database
40
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
40
Oil Refineries
40
Table: Downstream Projects
40
Service Stations
41
Oil Storage
41
LNG Terminals
41
Gas Pipelines
42
Competitive Landscape
44
Competitive Landscape Summary
44
Table: Key Players - PNG Oil And Gas Sector
45
Table: Upstream Players
45
Table: Downstream Player
45
Company Profile
46
Oil Search
46
InterOil
51
Other Summaries
55
Regional Overview
62
Asia Overview
62
Gas Is Hot
62
Locking Eyes On Gas Production
65
Australia's LNG Roadblocks Open Up New Opportunities Elsewhere
66
Asia Fights Against LNG Prices
68
Seeking An Unconventional Rescue
71
Coalbed Methane: Underrated Potential
74
Refining Woes
74
Global Industry Overview
78
Appendix
85
Asia - Regional Appendix
85
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
85
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
86
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
87
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
88
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
89
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
90
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
91
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
91
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
92
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
93
Glossary
94
Table: Glossary Of Terms
94
Methodology
96
Industry Forecast Methodology
96
Source
98
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
98
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
100
Table: Weighting
102

The Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Papua New Guinea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Papuan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Papua New Guinea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Papuan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Papuan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Papua New Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc