Business Monitor International


Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report

Published 15 May 2014

  • 102 pages
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Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: The first LNG deliveries from Papua New Guinea's ExxonMobil-led PNG LNG facility, the country's first gas export project, are expected ahead of schedule in July 2014. There continues to be new proposals for LNG exports, including Total's monetisation plans for the Elk/Antelope fields and a possible floating LNG development by Osaka Gas. Gas projects will also offer some relief to a decline in liquids output, condensate from the PNG LNG project will give oil production a temporary boost.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Papua New Guinea's oil and gas sector are:

  • Horizon Oil has been given approval for the Stanley Gas Project achieving the conditions required for Osaka Gas to take a 40% stake in the project. Initially the Stanley Gas project will produce around 4,000 barrels per day (b/d) of condensate by around 2016, reinjecting produced dry gas. Eventually, this dry gas is expected to be combined with output from other production licences and sent to a floating LNG facility at Daru Island. We have increased our liquids production forecast to accommodate new condensate production, but are yet to alter gas forecasts.

  • In December 2013 French major Total farmed-in to the PRL 15 licence containing the Elk/Antelope complex with a 40.1% interest. As a result of the Total deal with InterOil in Q2 we altered our forecasts for PNG's gas production. The new agreement has delayed both the expected addition of gas to supply a third train at ExxonMobil's PNG LNG facility and also postponed production from the Elk/Antelope complex until around 2020, by which time a second standalone LNG export terminal could be operational.

  • Overall, our view remains largely optimistic on PNG's gas sector, which we expect will expand beyond the initial two trains due online from the Exxon-led PNG LNG project in 2014. First gas from the project could treble PNG's exports and boost its GDP by at least 20%. Due to new LNG export facilities, we forecast...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
11
Oil And Gas Reserves
11
Table: Papua New Guinea Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
11
Table: Papua New Guinea Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
12
Oil Supply And Demand
14
Table: Papua New Guinea Oil Production And Net Exports Forecasts, 2012-2017
14
Table: Papua New Guinea Oil Production And Net Exports, 2018-2023
14
Gas Supply And Demand
17
Table: Papua New Guinea Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
17
Table: Papua New Guinea Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
18
Refining And Oil Products Trade
21
Table: Papua New Guinea Refining - Production And Consumption, 2012-2017
21
Table: Papua New Guinea Refining - Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
22
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
23
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
24
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
24
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
25
The Upstream Leaders
25
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
28
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Downstream Support
30
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Papua New Guinea - Risk/Reward Ratings
36
PNG Upstream Rating
36
PNG Downstream Rating
36
Market Overview
37
Papua New Guinea Energy Market Overview
37
Overview/State Role
39
Licensing And Regulation
39
Government Policy
39
International Energy Relations
40
Table: Papua New Guinea - Upstream Projects Database
41
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
41
Oil Refineries
41
Table: Downstream Projects
41
Service Stations
42
Oil Storage
42
LNG Terminals
42
Gas Pipelines
43
Competitive Landscape
45
Competitive Landscape Summary
45
Table: Key Players - PNG Oil And Gas Sector
46
Table: Upstream Players
46
Table: Downstream Player
46
Company Profile
47
Oil Search
47
InterOil
51
Other Summaries
57
Regional Overview
64
Asia Overview
64
The World's Largest Oil Guzzler
64
Tightening In The Downstream
68
Gas Market Potential Set To Outshine Oil
72
A Hot Market For LNG
76
The Centre Of The LNG Price Debate
79
Global Industry Overview
81
Global Energy Market Overview
81
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
83
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
84
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
85
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
87
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
87
Appendix
90
Asia - Regional Appendix
90
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
90
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
91
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
92
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
93
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
94
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
95
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
96
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
97
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
97
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
98
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
99
Papua New Guinea - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecasts
101
Table: Papua New Guinea Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2012-2017
101
Table: Papua New Guinea Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown 2018-2023
102
Table: Papua New Guinea Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2012-2017
103
Table: Papua New Guinea Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown 2018-2023
104
Table: Papua New Guinea Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2012-2017
105
Table: Papua New Guinea Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown 2018-2023
106
Glossary
108
Table: Glossary Of Terms
108
Methodology
110
Industry Forecast Methodology
110
Source
112
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
112
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
114
Table: Weighting
115

The Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Papua New Guinea including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Papua New Guinea Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Papuan oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Papua New Guinea to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Papuan oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Papuan oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Papua New Guinea.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc