Business Monitor International


Pakistan Shipping Report

Published 24 February 2014

  • 112 pages
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Pakistan Shipping Report

Slight Pick-up In Port Activity Levels Expected

The Pakistani economy achieved a strong 5.0% GDP growth rate in July-September 2013, the first quarter of the 2013/14 financial year (which runs from July to June). We expect growth to ease back in subsequent quarters as the fiscal tightening recommended by the IMF and needed to correct imbalanced public sector accounts goes ahead. We are now forecasting 3.4% GDP growth in 2013/14, rising to 4.0% in 2014/15. Despite the unavoidable need for a fiscal correction, we remain quite optimistic about Pakistan's economic outlook. While the agricultural sector has lagged, there has solid growth in manufacturing output, despite a rather unexciting performance on the export front. We think the explanation lies in a surge of remittance revenues sent back home from expatriate Pakistanis, which has boosted domestic demand. While the economy continues to have weak points (like poor investment levels) we believe the fiscal correction will reduce the public sector 'crowding out effect' and allow credit to flow more freely to private sector borrowers.

Given our GDP growth forecast for 2013/14, which was lower than the preceding year, we trimmed back the levels of activity we expect in Pakistan's main ports. We are holding to that lower projection. That said, however, it needs to be noted that cargo handling will still be a little busier than in the preceding year, boosted by growing foreign trade.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2013/14-tonnage throughput at the Port of Karachi is forecast by BMI to grow by 2.4% to 39.444mn tonnes.

  • 2013/14 container throughput growth at the Port of Karachi forecast to increase by 2.4% to 1.566mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).

  • 2013/14 tonnage throughput at the Port of Muhammad Bin Qasim forecast to grow by 2.4% to 25.456mn tonnes.

  • 2013/14 container throughput at the Port of Muhammad Bin Qasim forecast to grow by 1.3% to 731,386TEUs.

  • Pakistan's total trade forecast to see real growth rebounding...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Shipping
10
Political
11
Economic
13
Business Environment
14
Industry Forecast
15
Port Of Karachi Throughput
15
Port Of Qasim Throughput
19
Table: Major Port Data
23
Table: Trade Overview
24
Table: Key Trade Indicators
24
Table: Main Import Partners, 2004-2011
25
Table: Main Export Destinations, 2004-2011
26
Market Overview
27
Pakistan Container Shipping Market Overview
27
Industry Trends And Developments
33
Company Profile
36
Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC)
36
Shipping - Global Industry View
38
Container Demand: Growth Outlook To Bolster 2014 Box Volumes
38
Container Supply: Overcapacity To Remain An Issue In 2014
48
Container Rates: Volatile As Demand Ticks Up, But Oversupply Remains
57
Table: Shipping Lines' Agents Offices Raided In Russia
62
Global Company Strategy
65
Maersk Line
65
Mediterranean Shipping Company
75
CMA CGM
81
Evergreen Line
90
COSCO Container Lines Company
98
Macroeconomic Forecasts
104
Economic Analysis
104
Table: PAKISTAN - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
108
Demographic Forecast
109
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
110
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
111
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
112
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
112

The Pakistan Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Pakistan.

BMI's Pakistan Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Pakistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Pakistani shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Pakistan through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc