Business Monitor International


Pakistan Shipping Report

Published 03 September 2014

  • 112 pages
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$1,295.00
Pakistan Shipping Report

4.0% GDP Growth Projected, Despite Downside Risks

In the 2014/15 fiscal year (June-July) Pakistan port activity growth will ease back compared to the preceding year, reflecting slower foreign trade growth. Gross tonnage and box throughput will remain in the low single percentage digits.

We are maintaining our forecast of 4.0% GDP growth for the wider Pakistani economy in 2014/15, although we recognise that the downside risk has increased since our last report. BMI believes that progress is being made on economic reforms and a narrowing of the fiscal deficit, but notes two key threats. First, the political crisis; with anti-government protestors, led by Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan and cleric Tahir-ul-Qadri continuing to call on Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to resign and for fresh elections to be held. These have disrupted business operations and called the stability of the government into question. Second, severe floods in September have had a negative effect on the agricultural sector, which will most likely have an impact the overall economy.

Despite these worries, for the moment we are holding the 4.0% projection for the economy this fiscal year. In the medium term - the five years to 2019 - we believe economic growth will average 4.1%.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014/15-tonnage throughput at the port of Karachi is forecast by BMI to grow by 4.9% to 43.376mn tonnes.

  • 2014/15-container throughput growth at the port of Karachi forecast to increase by 4.0% to 1.654mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs).

  • 2014/15-tonnage throughput at the port of Muhammad Bin Qasim forecast to grow by 3.0% to 26.553mn tonnes.

  • 2014/15-container throughput at the port of Muhammad Bin Qasim forecast to grow by 7.6% to 918,904TEUs.

  • Pakistan's total trade forecast to see real growth cooling to reach 3.5% in 2014/15, down from an estimated 8.0% in the preceding year.

Key Industry Trends

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Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Shipping
10
Business Environment
11
Economic
12
Political
13
Industry Forecast
15
Port of Karachi Throughput Outlook
15
Port Qasim Throughput Outlook
18
Table: Major Port Data
21
Table: Trade Overview
21
Table: Key Trade Indicators
22
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn)
23
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn)
23
Market Overview
24
Pakistan Container Shipping Overview
24
Industry Trends And Developments
30
Company Profile
33
Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC)
33
Global Industry Overview - Container Shipping
35
Demand: Global Box Outlook Brightening
35
Supply: Overcapacity To Remain As More Megas Saturate The Market
46
Table: Container Line Mega-Vessel Newbuild Plans
48
Rates: A Strong Start, But Rate Management Must Continue
51
Table: 2012 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
55
Table: 2012 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview
55
Global Industry Overview - Dry Bulk Shipping
56
Demand: Stimulus Blip Playing Out, Bit For How Long-
56
Supply: Dry Bulk Fleet growth Slipping, But Overcapacity Still A Problem
61
Table: China Iron Ore Trade Partners Overview
67
Table: China Coal Trade Partners Overview
67
Global Industry Overview - Liquid Bulk Shipping
68
Improving Fundamentals In Dirty Tanker Market
68
Tonne-Mile Growth To Support Product Tanker Sector
71
LNG Boom To Stall In 2013
74
Global Company Strategy
77
Maersk Line
77
Mediterranean Shipping Company
86
CMA CGM
91
Evergreen Line
99
COSCO Container Lines Company
105
Hapag-Lloyd
112
Hanjin Shipping
118
APL
123
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
130
Mitsui OSK Lines
137
Macroeconomic Forecasts
142
Table: Pakistan - Economic Activity
148
Demographic Forecast
149
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
150
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
151
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
152
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
152

The Pakistan Shipping Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data and Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasting, critically analysing international transport of dry bulk and containers. The report evaluates the global commodities and trade backdrop, alongside in-depth country-specific analysis of trade prospects. The report also contains company profiles covering leading multinational and national shipping companies and analysis of latest industry news, trends and regulatory developments in Pakistan.

BMI's Pakistan Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, business investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the shipping industry in Pakistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent shipping industry forecasts for Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Pakistani shipping market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in Pakistan through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments.
  • Exploit the latest competitive intelligence and company SWOTS on your competitors and peers including multinational and national companies.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering shipping, major investments and projects and significant multinational and national company developments.

SWOT Analysis

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the state's shipping sector, which carefully evaluates the short- and medium-term issues facing the industry.

Market Overview

Analysis of the capacity, terminals and planned development of the major ports in each country, including data on throughput and total tonnage.

Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Major port freight throughput (tonnes/teu); overall freight throughput (teu); total imports (US$bn) and exports (US$bn).

Company Profiles

Company profiles include business activities, leading products and services, company strategy, trends and developments and economic performance analysis.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc