Business Monitor International


Pakistan Power Report

Published 26 November 2014

  • 70 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Pakistan Power Report

BMI View :   The Pakistan power sector is set to benefit tremendously from the Chinese government's decision to finance 14 power projects as this will significantly boost generation capacity despite a lack of investment from the private sector.

On August 8, Pakistan's Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif announced that 14 power projects in the country had obtained funding approval from the Chinese government. The Chinese government agreed to provide loans to cover the project costs (up to 85% of the total cost) and help in the development of these projects. We believe that Pakistan's power sector is set to benefit tremendously from this and as a result have decided to revise our forecasts for the Pakistan power sector on the back of these developments. In particular, we have included into our forecasts, the 14 projects that the Chinese government has approved and this has resulted in a material upward revision for our thermal, hydropower, and solar capacity forecasts. We now expect thermal capacity in Pakistan to grow by 4.5% per annum (up from 0.8% previously), and total capacity to grow by 5.4% per annum (up from 3.3% previously). 

Despite these developments, we note the Pakistan power sector remains in a dire state, despite the government's efforts to address power shortages. The lack of transmission and distribution infrastructure, in particular, has had extremely devastating effects on the sector and we have seen private sector players move towards captive (or off-grid) generation in order to bypass grid limitations.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Pakistan Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Pakistan 2013-2018)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Pakistan 2018-2023)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Pakistan Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2017)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2018-2023)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2017)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2018-2023)
16
Table: Solar Feed-In Tariff Rates
20
Electricity Consumption
29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2017)
29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2018-2023)
29
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
31
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2017)
31
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2018-2023)
31
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2017)
31
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2018-2023)
31
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Table: Fact Box: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
38
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Pakistan Risk/Reward Rating
41
Rewards
42
Risks
42
Market Overview
44
Key Policies And Market Structure
44
Regulation And Competition
44
Pakistan Power Projects Database
47
Table: Pakistan Key Projects database
47
Competitive Landscape
55
Water And Power Development Authority (WAPDA)
55
Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC)
56
Regional Overview
58
Asia Regional Overview
58
Table: Regional Electricity Generation Growth, % Chg Y-O-Y
66
Glossary
68
Table: Glossary Of Terms
68
Methodology
69
Industry Forecast Methodology
69
Sources
72
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
72
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
75

The Pakistan Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Pakistan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Pakistan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

BMI’s Power Forecast Scenario

Forecasts to end-2024 for all key indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts:

  • Generation: Electricity generation total, thermal, coal, natural gas, oil, nuclear, hydropower, hydro-electric pumped storage and non-hydropower renewables.
  • Transmission and Distribution Losses: Electric power transmission and distribution losses.
  • Trade: Total imports and exports.
  • Electricity Consumption: Net consumption.
  • Electricity Capacity: Capacity net, conventional thermal, nuclear, hydropower and non-hydroelectric renewables.

BMI’s Power Risk Reward Index

BMI’s Risk Reward Indices provide investors (power companies, service companies and equity investors) looking for opportunities in the region with a clear country-comparative assessment of a market’s risks and potential rewards. Each of the country markets are scored using a sophisticated model that includes more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points to provide indices of highest to lowest appeal to investors,

Market Overview

Structure, size and value of the industry sector; overview of the industry landscape and key players; an assessment of the business operating environment, sustainable energy policies, pricing and the latest regulatory developments.

Key Projects Database

Details and analysis of all current and planned developments (new ventures, capacity expansion and other investments) across the sector broken down by location, sector type, capacity, value, companies and operational status.

Competitive Landscape

Illustration of the power industry that exploits our data-rich, in-depth analysis of the leading players in the sector and examination of operational results, strategic goals, market position and the potential for investment.

Power Outlook long-Term Forecasts

Regional long-term power forecasts covering electricity generation, consumption and capacity for thermal, hydroelectric and nuclear power. These are supported by a country specific  overview, alongside an analysis of key downside risks to the main forecasts.

Regional Overview

Providing BMI’s near-term economic outlook for the region as a whole, as well as taking a close look at countries of particular interest and the latest trends and developments.

Sources

The Power Market Reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources, such as multilateral organisations, government departments, industry associations, chambers and company reports, including Energy Information Administration (EIA), World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN).

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc