Business Monitor International


Pakistan Power Report

Published 20 May 2014

  • 75 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Pakistan Power Report

BMI View : Power shortages in Pakistan have increased in severity over Q114 and the sector could face additional risks from unhappy civilians resorting to violence, destroying transmission and distribution assets. On a brighter note, the strict crackdown on power bill debtors has led to several government offices to pay their bills as electrici ty to offices were cut. The move to stop providing employees of the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) with free electricity is another positive for the sector, reducing the burden on the government and the sector .

The Pakistani government appears successful in achieving some progress in the area of financing its power projects, with China and UAE agreeing to finance the Thar and Gaddani projects respectively. Efforts to crack down on power bill debtors have also forced the government to fork out some money, with various offices including the Prime Minister's office, facing power outages for a brief period of time until some payments were made. However, the crackdown, together with the soaring temperatures on the ground, have worsened the power shortage.

Although the government promised to usher in changes to the current myriad of problems, progress, while present, has been slow like its predecessors. Corruption and complicated bureaucracy continue to hamper the business environment, discouraging foreign investment, while provincial and federal governments seem to be losing the fight against the 'entitlement' mindset that many citizens have, which often leads to unpaid bills and electricity theft. Even with the government's plan to privatise, either partially all fully, 31 state enterprises we believe this will only provide a temporary relief to the ongoing problem of circular debt that continues to cripple the country. We maintain the government must push to end power subsidies and raise taxes to put the country and sector back on the path of growth. Otherwise, we expect current improvements to fade...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Industry Forecast
12
Pakistan Snapshot
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Pakistan 2013-2018)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data (Pakistan 2018-2023)
12
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
12
Pakistan Forecast Scenario
13
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2017)
13
Table: Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2018-2023)
14
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2017)
16
Table: Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2018-2023)
16
Table: Solar Feed-In Tariff Rates
20
Electricity Consumption
29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2017)
29
Table: Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2018-2023)
29
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
31
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2017)
31
Table: Electric Power T&D Losses Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2018-2023)
31
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2017)
31
Table: Trade Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2018-2023)
31
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Table: Fact Box: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
38
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Pakistan Risk/Reward Rating
41
Rewards
42
Risks
42
Market Overview
44
Key Policies And Market Structure
44
Regulation And Competition
44
Pakistan Power Projects Database
47
Table: Pakistan Key Projects database
47
Competitive Landscape
55
Water And Power Development Authority (WAPDA)
55
Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC)
56
Regional Overview
58
Asia Regional Overview
58
Table: Regional Electricity Generation Growth, % Chg Y-O-Y
66
Glossary
68
Table: Glossary Of Terms
68
Methodology
69
Industry Forecast Methodology
69
Sources
72
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
72
Table: Power Risk/Reward Rating Indicators
73
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
75

The Pakistan Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Pakistan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Pakistan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Rankings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Rankings provide fully comparable rankings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc