Business Monitor International


Pakistan Power Report

Published 05 February 2014

  • 71 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Pakistan Power Report

BMI View : Since the release of the Pakistani government's new five-year energy plan on July 21 2013, small improvements in the sector have been made. The government succeeded in reviving progress on projects such as the Nandipur power project, which could signal some marginal easing in the country's persistent power shortages. That said, the government's decision to subsidise the tariff rate hikes put in place by the National Power Electric Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) suggests that improvements will remain limited (given the ever-growing financial burdens) until the government finds sufficient political will to make its energy policy sustainable.

Although the new government promised to usher in changes to the current myriad of problems, progress, while present, has been slow like its predecessors. Corruption and complicated bureaucracy continue to hamper the business environment, discouraging foreign investment, while provincial and federal governments seem to be losing the fight against the 'entitlement' mindset that many citizens have, which often leads to unpaid bills and electricity theft. Even with the government's plan to privatise, either partially all fully, 31 state enterprises we believe this will only provide a temporary relief to the ongoing problem of circular debt that continues to cripple the country. We maintain that the government must push to end power subsidies and raise taxes to put the country and sector back on the path of growth. Otherwise, we expect current improvements to fade away, as the financial burden of the sector will ultimately cripple the government.

Even though the government has shown much determination in its latest five-year energy policy, improvements have yet to trickle down to improve the power situation. Load-shedding across the country remains high. The weak power sector continues to arrest the country's economic development, as power outages weigh on productivity while transmission losses and electricity theft...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Power
9
Industry Forecast
11
Pakistan Snapshot
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic And Demographic Data
11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector
11
Pakistan Forecast Scenario
12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity
12
Table: Pakistan Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
12
Table: Pakistan Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
13
Table: Pakistan Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
15
Table: Pakistan Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
16
Electricity Consumption
25
Table: Pakistan Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
25
Table: Pakistan Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
25
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports
26
Table: Pakistan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
26
Table: Pakistan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
27
Table: Pakistan Trade Data And Forecasts, 2011-2016
27
Table: Pakistan Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
27
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
30
Table: Vietnam's Power Development Roadmap
32
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings
35
Pakistan Risk/Reward Rating
35
Rewards
36
Risks
36
Market Overview
37
Key Policies And Market Structure
37
Regulation And Competition
37
Pakistan Power Projects Database
39
Table: Pakistan Key Projects database
39
Competitive Landscape
44
Water And Power Development Authority (WAPDA)
44
Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC)
45
Regional Overview
46
Asia Regional Overview
46
Aversion To Nuclear Energy Wearing Off
47
Coal To Grow, Supported By Imports
48
Glossary
50
Table: Glossary of Terms
50
Methodology
51
Industry Forecasts
51
Power Industry - Data Methodology
52
Generation and Consumption Data
52
Electricity Generating Capacity Data
53
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
54
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators
56
Sources
57

The Pakistan Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.

The Pakistan Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.

Key Benefits

  • Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks Pakistan's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Regional Overview

The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.

BMI Industry Forecasts

The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:

Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.

Electricity Generating Capacity offers forecasts for the potential net capacity and net capacity growth % change year-on-year for the whole power industry. It also includes individual forecasts for capacity (MW), capacity growth % change year-on-year, and % of total capacity for Thermal, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables.

The section also includes historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for:

Electricity Consumption, encompassing information on net consumption (TWh), net consumption growth % change year-on-year, and net consumption per capita (KWh).

Transmission And Distribution Losses, comprising predictions on Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, (TWh), and Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses, % of Output.

Electricity Trade, offering historical figures for imports and exports and forecasts for net imports (TWh).

Market Overview

This section provides an overview of the industry landscape and key players; assessment of the business operating environment and the latest regulatory developments.

Risk/Reward Ratings

BMI's Power Risk/reward Ratings provide fully comparable ratings aimed at investors (power companies, services companies and equity investors) in the regional power market. The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of various industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc