Business Monitor International


Pakistan Oil & Gas Report

Published 15 May 2014

  • 119 pages
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$1,295.00
Pakistan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View: Gas shortages continue to loom in Pakistan as the country awaits the development of required import infrastructure. With struggling production, a limited potential for significant increases in gas production and a lack of import infrastructure, the country will most likely continue to experience severe gas shortages over the near-to-medium term.

Large expectations were originally placed on the March 2013 agreement with Iran on the development of the IP pipeline by 2015. This date is becoming increasingly unlikely, however, with the latest blow being China's reported pull-out in the face of potential US-led sanctions related to Iran. LNG could also become part of the energy mix with two planned fast-track regasification projects, which if constructed, could see first LNG imports in 2015 at the earliest. We believe that LNG imports and the IP pipeline could ease the risk of prolonged energy supply constraints in the long term. However, significant downside risks exist to the completion of these projects .

The situation is particularly complicated with regards to Iran's global political standing, as sanctions on the country may prevent the timely delivery of badly needed supplies and expertise from Western MNCs . Domestic consumption continues to rise rapidly, boosted by the start-up of additional gas-fired power stations and continued use of condensate natural gas cars. While we do not believe it would render Pakistan gas self-sufficient over the next 10 years, the recent start-up of shale gas exploration creates a large upside risk to our forecast, especially as the EIA now estimates the country could hold as much as 3 trn cubic metres in shale reserves. Similarly, exploration for shale oil could accelerate , as it is now thought that Pakistan sits on nearly 9bn barrels.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Pakistan's Oil & Gas sector are:

  • The EIA's release of global technically recoverable resource estimates came as a positive...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Pakistan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2012-2017
10
Table: Pakistan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data, 2018-2023
11
Table: Risks To Pakistan's Water Sector
15
Oil Supply And Demand
16
Table: Pakistan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
16
Table: Pakistan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
16
Gas Supply And Demand
18
Table: Pakistan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2012-2017
18
Table: Pakistan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports, 2018-2023
20
Refining And Oil Products Trade
24
Table: Pakistan Refining Production And Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
24
Table: Pakistan Refining Production And Consumption, 2018-2023
25
Revenues/Import Costs
26
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings
28
The Upstream Leaders
28
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
31
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
33
Downstream Support
33
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Pakistan Risk/Reward Ratings
39
Market Overview
41
Pakistan Energy Market Overview
41
Overview/State Role
41
Government Policy
43
Licensing Rounds
45
Table: Key Upstream Players
46
Table: Key Downstream Players
46
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
47
Oil Refineries
47
Table: Refineries In Pakistan
47
Oil Storage Facilities
48
Oil Terminals/Ports
48
Oil Pipelines
48
LNG Terminals
48
Gas Storage Facilities
49
Gas Pipelines
50
Competitive Landscape
54
Competitive Landscape Summary
54
Table: Key Players - Pakistan Oil & Gas Sector
55
Company Profile
56
Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDCL)
56
Pakistan Petroleum (PPL)
61
Pakistan State Oil (PSO)
65
Pakistan Oilfields
69
Shell Pakistan
71
Other Summaries
74
Regional Overview
81
Asia Overview
81
The World's Largest Oil Guzzler
81
Tightening In The Downstream
85
Gas Market Potential Set To Outshine Oil
89
A Hot Market For LNG
93
The Centre Of The LNG Price Debate
96
Global Industry Overview
98
Global Energy Market Overview
98
OPEC Reconsiders Modus Operandi
100
Production Outages Look Likely To Persist
101
Global Oil Demand Picks Up
102
Capex Growth Cycle Shifting Gears
104
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, Annual Average, USD/bbl
104
Appendix
107
Asia - Regional Appendix
107
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
107
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
108
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
109
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
110
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 ('000b/d)
111
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
112
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
113
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
114
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
114
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
115
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2023 (bcm)
116
Pakistan - Refined Products Breakdown, 10-year Forecast
118
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2012-2017
118
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Production Breakdown, 2018-2023
119
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2012-2017
121
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Consumption Breakdown, 2018-2023
122
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2012-2017
123
Table: Refined Petroleum Products, Net Exports Breakdown, 2018-2023
124
Glossary
126
Table: Glossary Of Terms
126
Methodology
128
Industry Forecast Methodology
128
Source
130
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
130
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
132
Table: Weighting
133

The Pakistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Pakistan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Pakistan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Pakistani oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Pakistan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Pakistani oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Rankings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Rankings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc