Business Monitor International


Pakistan Oil & Gas Report

Published 10 February 2014

  • 119 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Pakistan Oil & Gas Report

BMI View:

Gas shortages continue to loom in Pakistan as the country awaits the development of required import infrastructure. With struggling production, a limited potential for significant increases in gas production and a lack of import infrastructure, the country will most likely continue to experience severe gas shortages over the near-to-medium term. Large expectations are placed on the March 2013 agreement with Iran on the development of the IP pipeline by 2015. LNG could also become part of the energy mix with two planned fast-track regasification projects, which if constructed, could see first LNG imports in 2015 at the earliest. We believe that LNG imports and the IP pipeline could ease the risk of prolonged energy supply constraints in the long term. However, significant downside risks exist to the completion of these projects The situation is particularly complicated with regards to Iran's global political standing, as sanctions on the country may prevent the timely delivery of badly needed supplies and expertise from Western MNCs. Domestic consumption continues to rise rapidly, boosted by the start-up of additional gas-fired power stations and continued use of condensate natural gas cars. While we do not believe it would render Pakistan gas self-sufficient over the next 10 years, the recent start-up of shale gas exploration creates a large upside risk to our forecast, especially as the EIA now estimates the country could hold as much as 3tcm in shale reserves. Similarly, exploration for shale oil could accelerate as it is now thought that Pakistan sits on nearly 9bn barrels.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Pakistan's Oil & Gas sector are:

  • The EIA's release of global technically recoverable resource estimates came as a positive development for Pakistan in early June. Previously estimating the country held 1.44trn cubic metres (tcm) of shale gas, the EIA now puts this number at 3tcm. More importantly, Pakistan is now ranked ninth...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Industry Forecast
10
Oil And Gas Reserves
10
Table: Pakistan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Short-Term Forecasts, 2011-2016
10
Table: Pakistan Proven Oil & Gas Reserves And Total Petroleum Data - Long-Term Forecasts, 2017-2022
11
Table: Risks to Pakistan's Water Sector
15
Oil Supply And Demand
16
Table: Pakistan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data And Forecasts, 2012-2017
16
Table: Pakistan Oil Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
16
Gas Supply And Demand
18
Table: Pakistan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2012-2017
18
Table: Pakistan Gas Production, Consumption And Net Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
20
Refining And Oil Products Trade
24
Table: Pakistan Refining Production And Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2016
24
Table: Pakistan Refining Production And Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2018-2023
25
Revenues/Import Costs
26
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
26
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
27
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
27
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Rewards Ratings
28
The Upstream Leaders
28
Resource-Rich Countries Hit By State Involvement
30
Table: Asia Upstream Sector Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Downstream Support
32
Table: Asia O&G Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
36
Pakistan Risk/Reward Ratings
37
Market Overview
39
Pakistan Energy Market Overview
39
Overview/State Role
39
Government Policy
41
Licensing Rounds
43
Table: Key Upstream Players
43
Table: Key Downstream Players
44
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
44
Oil Refineries
44
Table: Refineries In Pakistan
44
Oil Storage Facilities
45
Oil Terminals/Ports
45
Oil Pipelines
46
LNG Terminals
46
Gas Storage Facilities
47
Gas Pipelines
47
Competitive Landscape
52
Table: Key Players - Pakistan Oil & Gas Sector
53
Company Profile
54
Oil and Gas Development Company (OGDCL)
54
Pakistan Petroleum (PPL)
59
Pakistan State Oil (PSO)
63
Pakistan Oilfields
67
Shell Pakistan
70
Other Summaries
73
Regional Overview
79
Asia Overview
79
Gas Is Hot
79
Locking Eyes On Gas Production
82
Australia's LNG Roadblocks Open Up New Opportunities Elsewhere
83
Asia Fights Against LNG Prices
85
Seeking An Unconventional Rescue
88
Coalbed Methane: Underrated Potential
91
Refining Woes
91
Global Industry Overview
95
Appendix
102
Asia - Regional Appendix
102
Table: Oil Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
102
Table: Oil Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
103
Table: Oil Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
104
Table: Refining Capacity - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Refining Capacity - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 ('000b/d)
105
Table: Gas Production - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
106
Table: Gas Production - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
107
Table: Gas Consumption - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
108
Table: Gas Consumption - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
108
Table: LNG Exports - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2011-2018 (bcm)
109
Table: Net LNG Exports - Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2022 (bcm)
110
Glossary
111
Table: Glossary Of Terms
111
Methodology
113
Industry Forecast Methodology
113
Source
115
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
115
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
117
Table: Weighting
119

The Pakistan Oil & Gas Report has been researched at source and features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for Pakistan including major indicators for oil, gas and LNG, covering all major indicators including reserves, production, consumption, refining capacity, prices, export volumes and values. The report includes full analysis of industry trends and prospects, national and multinational companies and changes in the regulatory environment.

BMI's Pakistan Oil & Gas Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Pakistani oil and gas industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent oil and gas industry forecasts for Pakistan to test consensus views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Pakistani oil and gas market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani oil and gas sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs and latest activity) and Competitive Landscape Tables.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key forecasts and industry analysis, covering oil and gas reserves, supply, demand and refining, plus analysis of landmark company developments and key changes in the regulatory environment.

Regional Overview

Regional perspective on size and value of industry sector; comparative rankings by production, refining, imports and exports of oil, gas and LNG.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's Oil and Gas Business Environment Ratings provide a country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index aimed at investors (independents, NOCs, IOCs and oil services companies) in the upstream and downstream markets.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of more than 40 industry, economic and demographic data points and is part of BMI's integrated Country Risk-Industry Ratings products.

Oil Market Outlook and Oil Products Outlook

Based on our country coverage of over 99% of global oil and gas production and consumption, BMI provides demand, supply and price forecasts to end-2018 for oil, gas and oil products

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Pricing: Oil price (US$/bbl, WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, Urals); Oil products prices (unleaded gasoline, gasoil/diesel, jet/kerosene - US$/bbl) at global hubs

Production, Consumption, Capacity and Reserves: Proven oil reserves (bn barrels), production, consumption, refinery capacity and throughputs (`000b/d); Proven gas reserves (tcm), production and consumption (bcm)

Imports and Exports: Oil exports/imports (`000b/d), value of oil exports/imports (US$mn - BMI base case); Value of oil exports at constant US$50/bbl and constant US$100/bbl (US$mn); Gas exports/imports (bcm), Value of gas exports/imports (US$mn); Value of gas exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports (US$mn); Value of petroleum exports/imports at constant US$50/bbl and US$100/bbl (US$mn)

BMI Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Competitive Landscape

Comparative company analyses by US$ sales, % share of total sales, number of employees, year established, ownership structure, oil production ('000b/d), gas production (bcm), downstream capacity ('000b/d) and % market share.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc