Business Monitor International


Pakistan Freight Transport Report

Published 31 December 2013

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Pakistan Freight Transport Report

We have downgraded our full-year real GDP growth forecast for Pakistan for the current fiscal year (FY2013/14 [July-June]) to 3.4% from 4.0% previously, as the macroeconomic environment readjusts painfully due to a general tightening in fiscal and monetary policy. We continue to believe that this tightening in policy is necessary in order to correct the significant structural imbalances in the economy, which should eventually put the economy on a much stronger footing and thus higher growth trajectory over the medium-to-long term. As such, while we have revised our near-term growth expectations, we have kept our FY2014/15 growth forecast at 4.0%, which implies a strong bounce in economic activity following this year of transition.

Our recent downgrades centre on lowering our growth expectations for domestic private demand, namely private consumption and gross fixed capital formation growth. While the revisions made were fairly marginal, they have had a notable impact on the headline rate of growth as domestic demand makes up the lion's share of the Pakistani economy, equivalent to approximately 111% of GDP over the past five years. We have lowered our projections for private consumption and gross fixed-capital formation growth to 2.0% and 1.5%, from 2.8% and 2.0%, respectively. The consequent downward revision in our import growth forecast as domestic demand weakens, however, provided a slight statistical cushion for headline growth.

While these economic headwinds continue to circle at present, the impact on Pakistan's freight industry will be that growth is set to be muted during 2014 across all modes. The outperformer in terms of annual tonnage growth will be maritime, with both the ports of Karachi and Muhammad Bin Qasim expected to witness 2.40% year-on-year (y-o-y) increases this year.

Headline Industry Data

  • 2014 tonnage throughput at the Port of Karachi is forecast to grow by 2.40% to 39.44mn tonnes.

  • 2014 tonnage throughput growth at the Port of Muhammad...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
10
Freight Transport
10
Political
12
Economic
14
Business Environment
15
Industry Forecast
16
Table: Table 1: Air Freight, 2011-2018
16
Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018
17
Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018
18
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018
18
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018
19
Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2011, US$mn
20
Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2011, US$mn
21
Market Overview
23
Industry Trends And Developments
29
Company Profile
33
Pakistan Railways (PR)
33
Mercury Logistics Pakistan (MLP)
36
Pakistan International Airlines Cargo (PIA Cargo)
38
Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC)
40
Political Outlook
42
Political Risk Analysis
42
Table: Pakistan Political Overview
44
Long-Term Political Outlook
45
Table: Scenario Matrix: Evolution Of State
48
Table: Scenario Matrix: Centrifugal Versus Centripetal Forces
50
Oil Price Outlook
51
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
51
Methodology
51
Crude Price Forecasts
51
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$
Variance Across Product Markets
52
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads
55
Weak Demand Persists
56
Risks To Outlook
57
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$
Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity
58
Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand
62
Gasoline And Gasoil
Gasoline And Gasoil
Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement
66
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes
68
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest
68
Macroeconomic Forecasts
72
Economic Activity
72
Table: Pakistan - Economic Activity
77
Demographic Forecast
78
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
79
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
80
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
81
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
81
Methodology
82
Industry Forecast Methodology
82
Sector-Specific Methodology
83
Sources
84

The Pakistan Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Pakistan Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Pakistani freight transport and logistics industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.

Industry SWOT Analysis

Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.

Industry Trends And Developments

Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)

Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)

Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state

Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs

Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)

Market Overview

Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.

Political Outlook

The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.

Company Profiles

Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc