The freight mix in Pakistan is set to perform moderately in both the short and medium term, with growth constricted somewhat by the parlous state of many integral economies at present. Also, domestic strife, such as the road blockade in Punjab in August 2014, has had a detrimental effect on freight output and such scenarios could flare up again into 2015.
Export cargo worth USD600mn came to a standstill in August 2014 due to a road blockade in the province of Punjab, according to exporters and shipping line sources and reported by Business Recorder. The tussle between the Pakistani government and opposition political parties - Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Pakistan Awami Tehrik - has resulted in a virtual collapse to businesses, trade, social and exports activities in the province. This could have a significant detrimental impact on the Pakistan freight industry should further blockades take place going forward.
The volume of containerised cargo calling to harbour from upcountry has registered a minimum 40% decline during the past week and is likely to rise to 50% if orders are not restored immediately, according to Mushtaq Ali Shah, President Captain, All Pakistan Shipping Association, speaking at the time of the incident.
While these economic headwinds continue to circle, as well as those from the global economy, the impact on Pakistan's freight industry will be that growth is set to be muted during 2015 across all modes. That said, this year is still set to see improvements in both the rail and air freight sectors, if not the maritime sector. The outperformer in terms of annual tonnage growth will be maritime, however, with both the port of Karachi expected to witness 4.90% year-on-year (y-o-y) increases in 2015, respectively. Air freight will see y-o-y growth of 3.31%, while rail freight is anticipated to grow by 2.70% y-o-y.
Headline Industry Data
The Pakistan Freight Transport Report has been researched at source, and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road, rail, air and water; industry forecasts, company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends, opportunities, projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Pakistan Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, sector analysts, investors, trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Pakistani freight transport and logistics industry.
- Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
- Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs, KPIs, and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics, regulatory changes, major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road, rail, air, sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road, rail, inland waterways, maritime, air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods, food, chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road, rail, air, water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region, examining the domestic politics, long-term outlook and foreign policy, and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.