Business Monitor International


Pakistan Defence & Security Report

Published 28 August 2014

  • 91 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Pakistan Defence & Security Report

BMI View:   Following the collapse of peace talks between the government and the Pakistan Taliban, and the decision to begin a military offensive in North Waziristan, we expect an escalation in domestic security threats though 2014 and into 2015. The government plans to deploy 150,000 troops to the region until 2017, which will increase pressure on military resources. The government has increased the defence budget for the current financial year, but additional funds may be required to quell the heightened security threat. Meanwhile, the increased cost of supplying the army in its ground offensive could detract funds away from the military procurement programme. 

Defence spending is highly skewed in favour of the Pakistan Army, which is the primary branch of the armed forces. Meanwhile, the Pakistan Navy and Pakistan Air Force play a smaller role in national defence given the nature of strategic threats, which are primarily land based. However, defence chiefs have highlighted weakness in air and naval hardware in Pakistan, which is losing ground to India with regards to overall military capability. As a result, aircraft, ship, and submarine purchases dominate the current procurement plan.

The indigenous defence industry does not have the capacity to design and manufacture sophisticated weaponry such as this, and relies on international partnerships to supply the military. China is the main partner, supplying the majority of imported arms and licensing designs to Pakistani defence corporations which are manufacturing hardware, such as the JF-17 Thunder.  The  Pakistan Aeronautical Complex is manufacturing 50 Jets for the Pakistan Air Force, and is also looking to export to partners in Saudi Arabia, and potentially Myanmar. This will become the first major export for the Pakistani defence industry, which is largely geared towards supplying indigenous forces, with the exception of Heavy Industries Taxila (HIT) which has exported main battle tanks in the past.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Pakistan Security SWOT
9
Pakistan Defence & Security SWOT
12
Political
14
Economic
16
Business Environment
17
Industry Forecast
18
Defence Budget
18
Table: Defence Expenditure (Pakistan 2011-2018)
19
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario - Changing % Of GDP (Pakistan 2011-2018)
20
Armed Forces
20
Table: Armed Forces Personnel (Pakistan 2001-2011)
21
Table: Manpower Available For Military Service (aged 16-49 unless otherwise stated) (Pakistan 2011-2018)
21
Table: Defence Trade Balance (USDmn) (Pakistan 2011-2018)
23
Table: Defence Exports (USDmn) (Pakistan 2011-2018)
25
Table: Defence Imports (USDmn) (Pakistan 2011-2018)
26
Macroeconomic Forecasts
28
Economic Analysis
28
Table: Pakistan - Economic Activity
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Asia Security Risk Ratings
32
Table: Asia Pacific Security Risk Ratings
32
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
33
Pakistan Security Risk Ratings
33
Market Overview
34
Pakistan Defence Market Overview
34
Armed Forces
34
Table: Pakistan's Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missile Arsenal
42
Table: Exports From Pakistan
42
Pakistan Security Overview
43
Domestic Threats
43
Regional Threats
48
International Threats
54
Company Profile
58
Air Weapons Complex
58
Dr AQ Khan Laboratories
59
Heavy Industries Taxila
60
Pakistan Aeronautical Complex
62
Pakistan Ordnance Factories
63
Regional Overview
64
South Asia Security Overview
64
Global Industry Overview
77
Global Political Outlook
77
Methodology
83
Industry Forecast Methodology
83
Sector-Specific Methodology
84
Sources
85
Security Risk Ratings Methodology
85
Table: Indicators And Weighting
86

The Pakistan Defence & Security Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s independent forecasts for national and international security, the defence industry, military expenditure, employment in arms production, and arms imports and exports, as well as examining industry trends and prospects, national and multinational arms producers and the regulatory environment.

BMI's Pakistan Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Pakistani defence and security industry.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent defence and security industry forecasts on Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Pakistani defence and security market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Asia defence and security sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Asia.
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. KPIs and latest activity).

Coverage

Global and Regional Political Outlooks

A strategic overview of the world's major political risks, identifying countries facing leadership successions and nations at risk of upheaval, inter-state conflict or separatism and insurgencies, plus a summary of the world's 'wild card' low-probability high-impact risks.

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting the defence and security sectors, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into 'Strengths', 'Weaknesses', 'Opportunities' and 'Threats'.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on BMI's heritage of more than 25 years of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

BMI's proprietary Security Risk Rankings provide a reliable - and country comparable - guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst's latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our country risk expertise, we assess the state's vulnerability to a serious - or prolonged - terrorist campaign.

Armed Forces Spending/Expenditure

The reports contain a detailed breakdown of areas of expenditure by the armed forces, these include spending on international deployments, WMDs and missile defence systems as well as individual breakdowns of the cost-per-soldier.

Domestic Security Overview

The domestic security overview lists the various potential internal security threats facing a country, ranging from internal security issues such as terrorism, cyber terrorism, crime and drugs, to external security issues including general defence procedures and potential threats from specific countries.

BMI Industry Forecast Scenario

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for key industry indicators supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.

Budgets & Expenditure: Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn).

Employment: Employment in arms production (`000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force).

Macroeconomic: BMI's forecasts and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

Domestic Security Overview

The reports also provide a regional overview which details specific issues and flashpoints affecting , along with potential risks in the coming year.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc