Business Monitor International


Pakistan Autos Report

Published 27 August 2014

  • 68 pages
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$1,295.00
Pakistan Autos Report

BMI View:   The recent FY2014/15 (July-June) budget has seen the Pakistan government abolishing the 10% Federal Excise Duty (FED) on locally assembled vehicles above 1,800cc while still retaining the 10% FED on imported vehicles. We believe this policy development will continue to make locally assembled vehicles more attractive to consumers versus imported vehicles. We forecast auto sales to grow 4.1% in FY2014/15.

Although manufacturers have not necessarily been able to make their assembly operations more efficient, and the business environment remains poor, the appreciation in the Pakistani rupee since March has been a boon to the auto sector as it has made the import of components for these assemblers cheaper ( see 'Rupee Strength Comes To Sector's Rescue', May 2). This has allowed them to lower prices of their cars and increase sales at the expense of imported cars. Total car imports during the first 10 months of FY2013/14 were down 57% year-on-year, to 17,984 units.

We see this removal of duties on locally produced cars further boosting their price competitiveness vis-a-vis imported cars as firms will be able to provide greater price discounts to consumers.

While it is understandable that the government wants to protect the domestic industry against competition from imported vehicles, this move has not gone down well with everyone. The chairman of All Pakistan Motor Dealers Association, H M Shahzad, has written a letter to Federal Finance Minister Ishaq Dar to flag up the negative impact of this policy on the used car market. One possible impact would be to used car importers, which could lose some of their business as customers choose to buy new locally produced cars instead.

Although the government will face a balancing act in the coming years as it tries to balance the needs of consumers, local manufacturers and used car importers, BMI believes that the industry needs to embrace reforms to remain competitive in the coming years.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
8
Political
9
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018)
13
Sales
13
Passenger Vehicles
16
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018)
16
Table: Passenger Car Historical Production And Sales By Model, FY07/08-FY12/13 (CBUs)
16
Commercial Vehicles
18
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018)
18
Table: Commercial Vehicle Historical Sales By Manufacturer, 2008/09-2012/13 (CBUs)
20
Motorcycles
21
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018)
21
Table: Motorcycle Historical Production And Sales By Manufacturer, 2008-2013 (CBUs)
21
Suppliers
24
Macroeconomic Forecast
28
Economic Analysis
28
Table: Pakistan - Economic Activity
31
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
32
Asia - Risk/Reward Ratings
32
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
35
Company Profile
36
Company Monitor
36
Indus Motor
39
Honda Atlas
41
Pak Suzuki Motor
42
Regional Overview
43
Table: Vehicle Sales June 2014 (CBUS)
43
Global Industry Overview
49
Table: Passenger Car Sales May 2014 (CBUs)
49
Outperformers Boost European Outlook
49
Trucks Give North America A Lift
50
India Brings Relief To BRICs
52
Demographic Forecast
54
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
55
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
56
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
57
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
57
Methodology
58
Industry Forecasts
58
Sector-Specific Methodology
59
Sources
59
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
60
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
61

The Pakistan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Pakistan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Pakistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Pakistani automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc