Business Monitor International


Pakistan Autos Report

Published 18 February 2014

  • 68 pages
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$1,295.00
Pakistan Autos Report

Production

Although vehicle sales have shown signs of a recovery since the beginning of the fiscal year, growing some 82% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first six months of FY2013/14, to 63,325 units, auto production is still struggling to gain traction, in line with our earlier forecasts.

However, the near-term uptick in commercial vehicle (CV) sales has seen a concurrent boost in production. CV production grew 74.1% y-o-y in December, to hit 1,429 units, bringing output for the first six months of FY2013/14 to 10,872 units. This is well-placed to meet our FY2013/14 CV production growth forecast of 7.1%, to 19,700 units and we are happy to maintain it for now.

Sales

The positive momentum in Pakistani auto sales, a trend we initially highlighted in August 2013 (see 'Sales To Recover But Production Faces Challenges', August 29 2013), continued unabated towards the tail end of 2013. According to the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), vehicle sales in December 2013 rose 16.2% y-o-y, to 9,967 units. This increase marks the sixth consecutive month of auto sales registering a positive y-o-y increase.

The gain in sales was led by all segments, with both the passenger car segment and the CV segment enjoying growth. While vehicle sales have made a strong start in FY2013/14 (June-July), we caution that they will have to face a higher base in H2FY2013/14, which will slow down growth rates.

Manufacturers Reaping Gains

Additionally, margins of local assemblers have improved in the past few months. From October-December 2013, the Pakistani rupee has appreciated by about 9% against the Japanese yen. With domestic manufacturers importing most of their assembly parts and kits from Japan, this strength in their local currency improves their margins.

Upcoming Industry Plan Will Chart Direction

We believe the upcoming Auto Industry Development Plan 2, which is set to be unveiled by the government on January 9 2014, will be crucial in determining the direction of the...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Production
14
Table: Autos Production, FY2012/13-FY2017/18
14
Sales
15
Table: Autos Sales, FY2012/13-FY2017/18
15
Trade
18
Table: Autos Trade, FY2012/13-FY2018/19
18
Passenger Vehicles
20
Table: Passenger Car Historical Production And Sales By Model, FY07/08-FY12/13 (CBUs)
20
Commercial Vehicles
22
Table: Commercial Vehicle Historical Sales By Manufacturer, 2008/09-2012/13 (CBUs)
25
Motorcycles
26
Table: Motorcycle Historical Production And Sales By Manufacturer, 2007-2012 (CBUs)
26
Suppliers
29
Macroeconomic Forecast
33
Economic Analysis
33
Table: PAKISTAN - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
37
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
38
Asia Pacific - Risk/Reward Ratings
38
Table: Asia Pacific Autos Risk/Reward Ratings
41
Company Profile
42
Company Monitor
42
Indus Motor
45
Honda Atlas
47
Pak Suzuki Motor
48
Regional Overview
49
Table: Vehicle Sales 2013 (CBUS)
49
Global Industry Overview
54
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
54
Europe On Road To Recovery
54
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
56
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
58
Demographic Forecast
61
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
62
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
63
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
64
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
64
Methodology
65
Industry Forecasts
65
Sector-Specific Methodology
66
Sources
66
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
67
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
68

The Pakistan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Pakistan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Pakistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Pakistani automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc