Business Monitor International


Pakistan Autos Report

Published 16 May 2014

  • 68 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,295.00
Pakistan Autos Report

Sales

According to the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), auto sales tumbled 29.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in March 2014 to 9,614 units. The sharp fall in March sales, however, can be attributed to the 'New Year Model' phenomenon whereby consumer demand eases after the start of the year. This has not derailed the mild recovery in the sector, which we highlighted back in August 2013 ( see 'Sales To Recover But Production Faces Challenges', August 29 2013).

Vehicle sales for 9MFY2013/14 (July-June) rose 2.2% y-o-y, to 100,220 units. We believe vehicle sales will continue to grow at a modest pace for the rest of FY2013/14 and maintain our full fiscal year sales forecast of 142,500 units, an increase of 3.5%.

Strength In Rupee To Lift Sales

Another factor which contributed to the sharp drop in March sales was deferred purchases by consumers due to expectations of price cuts in the near future. The Pakistani rupee has appreciated significantly against the US dollar in recent months and we believe this will give carmakers room to discount their prices given that a lot of assembly components are imported. With assemblers usually taking roughly three months to pass on the impact of a stronger local currency, we see upcoming price discounts as another tailwind for sales for the remainder of FY2013/14.

In fact, Indus Motor Company (IMC), the local assembler for Toyota Motor, has already reduced the prices of some its models. This helped the firm to become an outperformer in March with a 15.6% y-o-y increase in its sales, to 4,051 units. IMC's sales in recent months have also been helped by the Corolla model. This trend is expected to continue in FY2014/15 when the new Corolla 2014 is assembled in Pakistan. In fact, some Toyota dealerships are already taking pre-orders for the new Corolla due to strong demand.

Production Boosted But Currency Backslide Remains A Risk

The growth in domestic sales has carried over to auto production, with output for the first...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018)
14
Sales
14
Passenger Vehicles
17
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018)
17
Table: Passenger Car Historical Production And Sales By Model, FY07/08-FY12/13 (CBUs)
18
Commercial Vehicles
19
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018)
19
Table: Commercial Vehicle Historical Sales By Manufacturer, 2008/09-2012/13 (CBUs)
23
Motorcycles
24
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018)
24
Table: Motorcycle Historical Production And Sales By Manufacturer, 2007-2012 (CBUs)
24
Suppliers
27
Macroeconomic Forecast
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: PAKISTAN - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
38
Company Profile
39
Company News Alert
39
Indus Motor
43
Honda Atlas
45
Pak Suzuki Motor
46
Regional Overview
47
Asia Regional Overview
47
Table: Vehicle Sales March 2014 (Cbus)
47
Global Industry Overview
52
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
52
European Growth Gathers Momentum
52
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
54
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
55
Demographic Forecast
58
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
59
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
60
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
61
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
61
Methodology
62
Industry Forecasts
62
Sector-Specific Methodology
63
Sources
63
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
64
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
65

The Pakistan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Pakistan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Pakistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Pakistani automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

secure
Benefit from discounts when you add multiple products to your basket
2 Products SAVE 10%
3 Products SAVE 15%
4 Products SAVE 20%
5 Products SAVE 25%
6 Products SAVE 30%
7 - 20 Products SAVE 35%
21 Products or more SAVE 40%

Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc