Business Monitor International


Pakistan Autos Report

Published 27 August 2014

  • 68 pages
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$1,295.00
Pakistan Autos Report

We believe that policies drawn up in the new federal budget will support the domestic auto industry, by creating conditions for stronger sales. The new budget, coupled with our upbeat forecast for private consumption and gross fixed-capital formation in the country, bodes well for both passenger cars and commercial vehicles (CVs). While we have maintained our forecast for passenger vehicles, we have revised our CV sales growth forecast to 9.4% in FY2014/15 (July-June) from 4.5% previously, bringing our overall auto sales growth forecast to 4.8%, up from 4.0% previously.

According to the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association (PAMA), domestic auto sales (includes passenger cars, trucks, buses, light commercial vehicles, vans, and jeeps) for September rose 11.3% year-on-year (y-o-y). In line with what we have highlighted previously, the removal of the 10.0% Federal Excise Duties (FED) on domestically produced motor vehicles above 1,800cc has benefitted the passenger car segment. Our positive outlook for the country's economy will continue to support passenger car sales.

For the CV segment, we foresee that a cut in general sales tax (GST) and an allocation of PKR25bn for the government's taxi scheme will boost CV sales. As seen in the passenger car segment, CV sales have also rebounded in August 2014, rising by 18.4% year-on-year following a decline of 14.1% in July, and we expect this momentum to continue given Pakistan's positive investment outlook.

On the production front, consumers will continue to prefer purchasing domestically produced vehicles, rather than imported ones. This is largely due to the government's change in Federal Excise Duty (FED) on locally assembled vehicles above 1,800cc, creating a bias for cheaper, domestically assembled vehicles. Consequently, we have revised our 2014 production growth forecast to 5.1% from 2.5% previously.

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
12
Business Environment
13
Industry Forecast
14
Table: Autos Total Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018)
14
Sales
14
Passenger Vehicles
17
Table: Passenger Car Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018)
17
Table: Passenger Car Historical Production And Sales By Model, FY07/08-FY12/13 (CBUs)
18
Commercial Vehicles
19
Table: Commercial Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018)
19
Table: Commercial Vehicle Historical Sales By Manufacturer, 2008/09-2012/13 (CBUs)
23
Motorcycles
24
Table: Motorcycle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Pakistan 2012-2018)
24
Table: Motorcycle Historical Production And Sales By Manufacturer, 2007-2012 (CBUs)
24
Suppliers
27
Macroeconomic Forecast
31
Economic Analysis
31
Table: PAKISTAN - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
34
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
35
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Asia-Pacific Autos
38
Company Profile
39
Company News Alert
39
Indus Motor
43
Honda Atlas
45
Pak Suzuki Motor
46
Regional Overview
47
Asia Regional Overview
47
Table: Vehicle Sales March 2014 (Cbus)
47
Global Industry Overview
52
Table: Passenger Car Sales March 2014
52
European Growth Gathers Momentum
52
Japan Prepares For Tax Fallout
54
China Wobble Adds To BRIC Weakness
55
Demographic Forecast
58
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
59
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
60
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
61
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
61
Methodology
62
Industry Forecasts
62
Sector-Specific Methodology
63
Sources
63
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
64
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
65

The Pakistan Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Pakistan Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Pakistan.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Pakistan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Pakistani automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Pakistani automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Pakistan.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

BMI Industry View

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Rankings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Rankings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Rankings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The rankings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2018 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc