Business Monitor International


Oman Autos Report

Published 10 February 2014

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Oman Autos Report

Final full-year 2013 sales data for Oman were unavailable as this report was being compiled. Consequently, we leave our forecasts unchanged this quarter, although we have now extended our forecast period out to 2018, when we believe that annual new vehicle sales should be nearing the 280,000 unit mark.

Certainly, all indications are that 2013 should have proved to be another positive year for new vehicle sales in Oman, with reports that sales were up by 9% as of end-July 2013, at 126,442 units.

BMI retains its stance that the coming years might see an easing in the growth rate of annual new car sales, after the stellar growth seen earlier in this decade in particular. However, this moderation in growth is a positive sign of maturity within the local market.

On the macroeconomic front, BMI's Country Risk team believes that the coming years are set to be a turning point for Oman, as the country edges closer to the final stage of its 1995-2020 long-term economic development strategy. Since 2010, the Omani economy has enjoyed a cyclical boom, with elevated international energy prices and a ramping up of oil production leading to a sharp increase in hydrocarbon income, much of which has been pumped back into the economy. Recently released data from the United Nations Statistics Division shows that real GDP growth reached an impressive 5.0% in annual terms in 2012, marginally above our forecast of 4.9%.

However, such benign conditions are unlikely to last and indeed BMI is predicting a slowdown in growth, to 3.5%, in 2014. With our forecasts calling for Omani oil production to reach a peak in 2015 and with our view that oil prices will trend lower over the medium term, Oman's fiscal outlook is becoming increasingly precarious, and we project budget deficits from 2014 onward. This means that economic activity will not be able to rely on continued fiscal support from the government.

That said, the local auto sales market can rely on continued strong levels of private...

Table of Contents

BMI Industry View
7
SWOT
9
Political
10
Economic
11
Business Environment
12
Industry Forecast
13
Sales
13
Table: Automotive Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2018
13
Trade
15
Table: Automotive Trade - Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2018
15
Passenger Vehicles
16
Table: Oman - Top 10 Best-Selling Manufacturers, H113
16
Table: Oman - Top 10 Best-Selling Models 2012
17
Commercial Vehicles
20
Suppliers
21
Macroeconomic Forecasts
24
Economic Analysis
24
Table: Oman - Sectors' Contribution To Overall Gdp, Current Prices
25
Table: Oman - Gas Prices For Industrial Consumers
29
Table: Oman - Economic Activity
33
Industry Risk Reward Ratings
34
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings - Middle East And North Africa Autos
36
Company Profile
37
Company News Alert
37
Saud Bahwan Group
40
Suhail Bahwan Automobiles
43
Regional Overview
46
Industry Trend Analysis
46
Compete Or Complement In The GCC-
46
North Africa Becoming A Viable Alternative
47
Still Cautious On Iran
49
Global Industry Overview
51
Table: Passenger Car Sales November 2013 (CBUs)
51
Europe On Road To Recovery
51
Tax Hike Skews Japan's Outlook; US Hits Sweet 16
53
China Is BRIC Bright Spot
55
Demographic Forecast
58
Demographic Outlook
58
Table: Oman's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000)
59
Table: Oman's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total)
60
Table: Oman's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020
61
Table: Oman's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020
61
Methodology
62
Industry Forecasts
62
Sector-Specific Methodology
63
Sources
63
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
64
Table: Automotive Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators And Weighting Of Indicators
65

The Oman Autos Report features the latest data and forecasts covering production, sales, imports and exports.

Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Oman Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the automotives market in Oman.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark BMI's independent automotives industry forecasts on Oman to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the Omani automotives market.
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the Omani automotives sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments in Oman.
  • Assess the activities and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape Analysis.

Coverage

Executive Summary

Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and views, covering production, sales and the introduction of new technology or products.

Global, Regional and Country Industry Overviews

In-depth analysis of the major global and regional developments in the market, which can be linked with the country industry overview, providing cross-country investment, product and financing trends that will affect each market, supported by BMI’s global and regional industry forecasts.

Business Environment Ratings

BMI's proprietary Autos Business Environment Ratings are a unique country-comparative Risk-Reward Ratings index that separately analyses the risks and rewards of operating in each market. It is aimed at investors (including manufacturers, suppliers and dealers) who seek to either identify and compare market opportunities, or evaluate country-specific operational challenges.

The ratings methodology makes sophisticated use of over 40 industries, economic and demographic data points.

BMI Industry Forecasts

Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast, including:

Total production value (US$bn); total production of units; production by vehicle-type (including cars, commercial vehicles, trucks and buses); total sales value (US$bn); sales by vehicle-type, including passenger cars and commercial vehicles (vans and microbuses, pickups, trucks and buses, 4 wheel drive); total exports by value (US$bn) and by units; total imports by value (US$bn) and by units; contribution to GDP; employment in industry.

BMI Economic Forecasts

BMI forecasts to end-2017 for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Examines the competitive positioning and short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts, our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles, enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.

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Testimonials

'An essential, multi-faceted research tool. BMI’s thorough understanding of the major market players enables an informed – and informative – review of the sector’s actual performance, together with useful insights into current industry issues, which are topped-off with detailed and invaluable forecasts of industry and macroeconomic trends.’

Senior Research Analyst, ABC International Bank plc