Business Monitor International


Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report

Published 23 April 2014

  • 59 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • Oman's economic performance will remain robust over the coming quarters, on the back of healthy growth in oil and gas production and expanding non-hydrocarbon business activity. High public spending and a promising fixed investment picture should further support economic growth in 2014. We forecast real GDP growth of 3.5% in 2014, moderating slightly from an estimated 4.7% in 2013.

  • We continue to expect limited inflationary pressures in Oman over the coming quarters, and forecast average consumer price inflation of 2.1% over 2014, from 1.2% in 2013.

  • Oman's fiscal outlook is becoming increasingly precarious, and we project a budget deficit of 1.2% of GDP in 2014, widening to 5.0% of GDP by 2017. Fiscal reform will need to be accelerated in our view, either through curbs to subsidies and military expenditure, or the establishment of new non-hydrocarbon revenue streams.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • We stress that, for the foreseeable future, Oman's economy will remain highly reliant on oil revenue. Should prices record a more pronounced drop before the economy has been sufficiently diversified away from the energy sector, our positive outlook might prove overly optimistic.

  • The autocratic nature of the political regime in Oman (and elsewhere in the Gulf) will ensure that risks of an uptick in protest activity by pro-democracy demonstrators remain elevated; such activity would generate uncertainty and deter investors from the market.

  • Oman is well positioned to benefit from potential improvements in Iran's relations with the West. Any relaxation of the sanctions regime on Iran provides an upside risk to Omani exports and investment inflows.

OMAN - CORE FORECASTS
2012 2013 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1 5.0 4.7 e 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.0 3.2
GDP per capita, USD 1 23,547 23,991 e 23,723 23,763 24,135 24,851 25,911
Population, mn 2 ...

Table of Contents

BMI Methodology
5
BMI Risk Ratings - Oman
6
BMI Risk Ratings - Yemen
7
Middle East - Ratings League Tables
9
Executive Summary - Oman
11
Core Views
11
Key Risk To Outlook
11
Chapter 1
13
SWOT Analysis
13
Domestic Politics
14
Unemployment Remains The Main Political Risk
14
TABLE: OMAN - POLITICAL OVERVIEW
14
Long-Term Politics
16
Royal Succession: Who Is Next In Line-
16
Chapter 1
19
SWOT Analysis
19
Economic Activity
20
Growth Outlook Remains Favourable
20
TABLE: ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
20
Fiscal Policy
22
Fiscal Policy To Stay Accommodative
22
TABLE: FISCAL POLICY
23
Monetary Policy
25
Inflation To Remain Mild
25
TABLE: MONETARY POLICY
25
More Positive Tourism Outlook For Gulf Cooperation Council
27
Chapter 1
31
The Omani Economy To 2022
31
The Next Episode: Shifting Away From Oil
31
TABLE: OMAN LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
31
Chapter 1
33
SWOT Analysis
33
TABLE: BMI BUSINESS AND OPERATION RISK RATINGS
34
TABLE: BMI LEGAL FRAMEWORK RATING
35
TABLE: LABOUR FORCE QUALITY
36
TABLE: MENA - ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
37
TABLE: TRADE AND INVESTMENT RATINGS
38
TABLE: TOP EXPORT DESTINATIONS, 2000-2008 (US$MN)
39
Executive Summary - Yemen
41
Chapter 2
43
SWOT Analysis
43
Domestic Politics
44
Political Activism To Increase During Reconciliation Process
44
TABLE: YEMEN POLITICAL OVERVIEW
44
Long-Term Political Outlook
45
Turbulent Decade Ahead: Scenarios For Change
45
Chapter 2
49
SWOT Analysis
49
Economic Activity
50
Growth To Accelerate In 2013
50
TABLE: YEMEN - ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
50
Monetary Policy
53
Declining Inflation Underpins Further Rates Cuts
53
TABLE: YEMEN - INFLATION
53
Chapter 2
55
Oil And Water: Not Enough Of Either
55
TABLE: YEMEN LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
55
Chapter 2
57
SWOT Analysis
57
Chapter 3: BMI Global Assumptions
59
Global Outlook
59
Past The Major Obstacles To Recovery
59
TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS
59
TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
60
TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS (%)
60
TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
61

The Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Oman and Yemen and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Oman and Yemen's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Oman and Yemen's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Oman and Yemen's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Oman and Yemen, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Omanese and Yemenis economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Oman and Yemen through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Oman and Yemen and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Oman and Yemen, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Oman and Yemen over the next 5-years?

BMI's Oman and Yemen country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Omanese and Yemenis Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Oman and Yemen.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Oman and Yemen's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Oman and Yemen's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for Oman and Yemen, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Oman and Yemen's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express