Business Monitor International


Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report

Published 20 October 2014

  • 59 pages
  • Instant access to your report online and PDF format through your account library
  • Includes 3 free updated quarterly reports
 
$1,195.00
Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report

Core Views

  • We expect the formation of a fragile federalised state in Yemen, and the political situation will remain highly unstable over the coming decade. While not our core view, we flag significant risks of a return to civil war and a de-facto break-up of the state. 

  • The economic outlook is uninspiring, with growth remaining sluggish over the 2014-18 period. Our core scenario sees business activity continuing to be negatively impacted by civil unrest, while persistent attacks on the country's hydrocarbon infrastructure will weigh on exports.

Key Risks To Outlook

  • Any further disruption by southern-based Islamists to oil or gas exports would weigh heavily on the external position. Yemen's current account dynamics remain precarious; with minimal inflows of capital on the financial account, another uptick of instability and an intensification in attacks on the country's hydrocarbon infrastructure could see the rial coming under unsustainable depreciatory pressure.

We expect the international community to significantly step up its financial support for Yemen in the years ahead. However, international donors and the Yemeni government will be unable to

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Yemen 2012-2015)
Indicator 2012 2013e 2014f 2015f
Nominal GDP, USDbn 30.4 33.5 37.6 41.4
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.0 3.4 2.5 2.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 5.8 8.1 10.0 12.0
Exchange rate YER/USD, eop 214.95 215.13 220.00 250.00
Budget balance, % of GDP -4.7 -7.7 -8.0 -7.8
Current account balance, % of GDP -1.1 -4.6 -7.3 -6.8
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, UN, Bloomberg, BMI

Click here to explore data

  • substantially ameliorate the dramatic humanitarian situation in the country.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary - Oman
11
Middle East - Index League Tables
9
Core Views
11
Key Risk To Outlook
11
Chapter 1
13
SWOT Analysis
13
Domestic Politics
14
Yemen's Crisis To Reverberate In Oman
14
TABLE: Political Overview
14
Long-Term Political Outlook
16
Royal Succession: Who Is Next In Line-
16
Chapter 1
19
SWOT Analysis
19
Economic Activity I
20
Growth Prospects Remain Strong For 2015
20
TABLE: Economic Activity
20
TABLE: GCC - REAL GDP GROWTH, % CHG Y-O-Y
21
Economic Activity II
22
Aluminium Expansion Underlines Broader Industrial Potential
22
TABLE: METALS & MINING OUTPUT HISTORICAL DATA
23
Fiscal Policy
24
Able To Withstand Lower Oil Prices For Now
24
table:Fiscal Policy
25
Banking Sector
27
Conditions Still Favourable To Corporate Lending
27
TABLE: BANKS' NET PROFIT, OMRmn
27
Chapter 1
29
The Omani Economy To 2023
29
The Next Episode: Shifting Away From Oil
29
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
29
Chapter 1
31
SWOT Analysis
31
Operational Risk
32
TABLE: Operational Risk
32
Transport Network
33
TABLE: Middle East And North Africa - Transport Network Risks
33
Economic Openness
37
TABLE: Middle East and North Africa - Economic Openness Risk
37
TABLE: Imports By Product
38
Executive Summary - Yemen
41
Core Views
41
Key Risk To Outlook
41
Chapter 2
43
SWOT Analysis
43
Domestic Politics
44
Political Situation To Deteriorate Further
44
TABLE: political overview
44
Long-Term Political Outlook
46
Federalised State To Emerge Amidst Protracted Instability
46
Chapter 2
51
SWOT Analysis
51
Economic Activity
52
Political Instability Weighing On Outlook
52
TABLE: Economic Activity
52
Monetary Policy
54
Inflation To Accelerate In 2015
54
TABLE: Monetary Policy
54
Chapter 2
57
The Yemeni Economy To 2023
57
Bleak Outlook As Energy Exports Contract
57
TABLE: Long-Term Macroeconomic Forecasts
57
Chapter 3: BMI Global Assumptions
59
Global Outlook
59
Big Emerging Market Revisions
59
Table: Global Assumptions
59
Table: Developed States, Real GDP Growth, %
60
Table: BMI VERSUS BLOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, %
60
Table: Emerging Markets, Real GDP Growth, %
61

The Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Oman and Yemen and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of Oman and Yemen's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

  • Forecast the pace and stability of Oman and Yemen's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
  • Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
  • Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
  • Contextualise Oman and Yemen's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
  • Evaluate external threats to doing business in Oman and Yemen, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Omanese and Yemenis economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Oman and Yemen through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Oman and Yemen Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

  • Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
  • BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

  • Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
  • Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
  • Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
  • Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
  • Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
  • External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
  • Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits

  • Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Oman and Yemen and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
  • Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Oman and Yemen, sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
  • Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from BMI's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:

What are the political risks to doing business in Oman and Yemen over the next 5-years?

BMI's Oman and Yemen country Risk Ratings evaluate the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents

  • SWOT Analysis for the Omanese and Yemenis Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing Oman and Yemen.
  • Political Stability and Risk Assessment - BMI's Risk Ratings assess explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest ratings, rankings and trends for Oman and Yemen's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
  • Current Administration and Policy-making BMI assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.

Key Benefits

  • Benchmark Oman and Yemen's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
  • Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
  • Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through BMI's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Business Environment

Business Environment Risk Ratings with SWOT Analysis - Business environment Risk Ratings for Oman and Yemen, benchmarked against ratings for regional neighbours.

Country Competitiveness - Competitiveness of Oman and Yemen's business operating environment in supporting corporate growth and profitability, compared with regional neighbours.

Business Environment Contents

  • Domestic Environment - Transparency, cronyism and corruption; labour market flexibility; corporate tax burden; interest rate levels; sophistication of banking sector and stock market; levels of business confidence; infrastructure and IT.
  • Foreign Direct Investment - Analysis of foreign investment regime; foreign ownership laws; attractiveness of business environment to foreign investors.
  • Foreign Trade - Analysis of trading environment, government trade policy, liberalisation measures, tariffs and membership of trade areas.

Key Benefits

  • Assess your company's evolving exposure to country specific operational and business risks, using BMI's in-depth analysis of the legal and regulatory business environment.
  • Understand your market's comparative strengths and weaknesses in the key areas of commercial infrastructure and business institutions, using BMI's proprietary global Business Environment Risk Ratings.

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Testimonials

The sections that I find most interesting and useful are the macroeconomic data and forecasts for the country, top export destinations and economic activity. The indicators/analysis of these areas helps us orient our thinking, our assumptions and, consequently, our decisions in the commercial area.

Country Manager, DHL Express